Despite all the mockery and criticism he's got, Van Gaal has actually got one thing right - the Mancs are quite hard to beat at Old Trafford again. After losing 7 home games under Moyes, they've lost just 6 games across all competitions in 2 seasons under Van Gaal (if you don't count the loss after penalty kicks to Boro in the League Cup). They've had 6 goalless draws at home this season (including that Boro game), so while he's choking the life out of his team, he's also managed to constrict the opponents at home.
So our qualification most likely have to rely on us getting a home win. A goalless draw isn't ideal, but probably grudgingly acceptable. One thing's for sure - we've to do everything we can to make sure we don't concede, and if unfortunately we do, then we have to win the game.
Given that, I'm rather conflicted as to who I'd like to see in the front four. While Sturridge and Coutinho are our best individual players up front, I think I might lean in favour of form and team balance for this game, at least for the first 45 minutes. So, I think I might favour keeping the same front four that started our last two games.
Controversial and perhaps contradictory, given what I'd said earlier about needing to win this game, and here I am saying we leave our best striker and most creative player on the bench. Two things on my mind here: (1) I think we'll need to have Milner's and Lallana's work rate to help the defence check the pace of Martial and Lingard, and (2) if Milner and Lallana can play with the directness and energy that they showed against City in the league game, then, success!
Another consideration is that Van Gaal will try to choke the middle, so I think we will end up going long more often, which means we require someone tall and strong enough to challenge for the aerial clearances, yet pacy and mobile enough and willing to pull wide or run deep to reach the passes from the back. I think Origi demonstrated pretty well in the last two games that he was capable of doing these. Plus, Firmino and Origi have the higher workrate to drop deep when we need them for defensive duties.
There's still the bit about lacking a proper goalscoring threat of course, but between Firmino, Lallana and Milner, there's 13 goals scored this year, so I'm banking on them keeping the good form running. This is all assuming they can repeat the performance level they showed in the league game against City.
If we can maintain energetic pressure and harassment for the first 45 minutes, we'll hopefully fray some nerves and prepare the ground for Coutinho and Sturridge (and maybe even Benteke to draw a cheap penalty - I'd love that!) later in the second half to really exploit the gaps. First the body blows, then the killer blows.
Of course, we could do it the other way round and try to sting them with the best attacking guys right from the start, but I think Van Gaal will be preparing for that lineup and will have tasked his team to slow the game down, and assigned specific areas and players to close down hard on Sturridge, Coutinho and Firmino. City shut us down in the regulation time in the League Cup final doing just that, stifling our creative players and giving us hardly any room to play.
Anyway, really looking forward to this. The Mancs are apparently giving out free white T-shirts to ticket holders to form a white sea at the away end. Hope we tear them to shreds and it ends up looking like a limp white hanky of surrender.
