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England vs Italy : Euro 2020 Final. 20.00 BST London

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Frogfish

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Just to kick this off with what would be my personal selection.

Reasons
Pickford's distribution was abysmal against Denmark and he looked flustered after making a few errors, giving the ball away to gift Denmark attacking opportunities and in not being awake for the Denmark free kick goal. Of course Southgate will still select him.

Shaw is another one that has been great going forward but remiss in defence. Often giving away the ball and also neglecting the LB space that he got away with against Denmark but I think Italy will exploit and make better use of. Trippier is better defensively and still good in attack.

Hendo hasn't started because of his lack of game time but has looked good every time he's been brought on. Playing both Rice and Philips maybe more defensively sound, or not, however you are missing Hendo's support to the attack, his excellent crossing and long passes to the flanks.
You can pick either Rice or Philips to drop however Philips looks more alive to situations and more mobile. Neither has done anything wrong but you want your best players on the pitch.

I've liked what I've seen from Saka but he does cough up possession a little too often. Sancho has better ball retention and better technical skills plus matches Saka's pace.

Grealish over Mount because of his ball retention, vision and unmatched ability to draw fouls. Also has a better shot, not that Mount is weak in any of those skills but not at Grealish's level. On the flip side we'd lose Mount's defensive nous as Grealish is far weaker in that regard. We know which way Southgate will go with this one.

Screenshot-2021-07-09-at-2-44-46-PM.png
 
I wonder if Gareth will go back 5. Part of me thought that his reason for reverting to it at the end of the semi was to get those players even more familiar with each other.

I can't see Gareth moving away from Kane, Raheem & Saka as the front three. It has worked. Shaw can't be dropped, he's been in the top 3 players for England.

For me only question is Mount vs Trippier i.e. back 4 (Mount) or back 3/5 (Trippier).
 
Gareth clearly dislikes Grealish, so he wont be starting.
Neither will Sancho.
 
I wonder if Gareth will go back 5. Part of me thought that his reason for reverting to it at the end of the semi was to get those players even more familiar with each other.

I can't see Gareth moving away from Kane, Raheem & Saka as the front three. It has worked. Shaw can't be dropped, he's been in the top 3 players for England.

For me only question is Mount vs Trippier i.e. back 4 (Mount) or back 3/5 (Trippier).
Unfortunately I am mostly in agreement, Southgate won't enforce many changes though I think he should. There's a disconnect between the defensive midfield two and the front four that Hendo would address. And he's fresh and he's chomping at the bit. Ditto Sancho and Grealish improving an already strong front four.

I can't see us switching to a back 5. He did that against Denmark to see out the game and we totally lost control. I imagine it would be worse against Italy.
 
We've been winning all our games when Rosco has been starting the threads.. Mods lock this shit.. it's just jinxy jinx jinxy.
 
Philips will be tired and during the last game squandered more than a couple of chances by going for glory. It would make sense to drop him. I'd probably drop mount too and give him a rest.
 
It will be a miracle if England win the tournament with Pickford. He is nothing but pure shit.
England's midfield will be eaten alive. And I am just thinking, no matter what England will still go on to win.
 
Philips will be tired and during the last game squandered more than a couple of chances by going for glory. It would make sense to drop him. I'd probably drop mount too and give him a rest.

I thought he started the tournament superbly and got worse with each game. He should have been sent off against Germany, and was the worst outfield player v Denmark. He won't be dropped but I'd be concerned that the Italians will wind him up and buy a few cheap fouls off him maybe try and get him sent off.
 
If ever there was a fucking thread that Dreamie should have been mandated to start and Named “Dead Rubber Euro Final”, this was it.

Now you’ve only gone and blown the bloody door off.... so much for the Italians doing a job.
 
I wonder if Mancini will drop Immobile who has been playing progressively worse and has objectively no skills or physical attributes that will trouble Maguire and Stones. Someone like Insigne playing in a false 9, similarly to how Dani Olmo did for Spain in the semi, could make life a lot more uncomfortable for England’s defense.
 
Just to kick this off with what would be my personal selection.

Reasons
Pickford's distribution was abysmal against Denmark and he looked flustered after making a few errors, giving the ball away to gift Denmark attacking opportunities and in not being awake for the Denmark free kick goal. Of course Southgate will still select him.

Shaw is another one that has been great going forward but remiss in defence. Often giving away the ball and also neglecting the LB space that he got away with against Denmark but I think Italy will exploit and make better use of. Trippier is better defensively and still good in attack.

Hendo hasn't started because of his lack of game time but has looked good every time he's been brought on. Playing both Rice and Philips maybe more defensively sound, or not, however you are missing Hendo's support to the attack, his excellent crossing and long passes to the flanks.
You can pick either Rice or Philips to drop however Philips looks more alive to situations and more mobile. Neither has done anything wrong but you want your best players on the pitch.

I've liked what I've seen from Saka but he does cough up possession a little too often. Sancho has better ball retention and better technical skills plus matches Saka's pace.

Grealish over Mount because of his ball retention, vision and unmatched ability to draw fouls. Also has a better shot, not that Mount is weak in any of those skills but not at Grealish's level. On the flip side we'd lose Mount's defensive nous as Grealish is far weaker in that regard. We know which way Southgate will go with this one.

Screenshot-2021-07-09-at-2-44-46-PM.png
Can't see Southgage making any real changes, He'll surely stick to plan A.
 
Fifty-eight per cent of English fans think Gareth Southgate's team will face an agonising shootout at Wembley - 25 years after the national team was knocked out of Euro 96 after Southgate's penalty miss in the semi-final against Germany.

A higher proportion of Italians are expecting penalties to separate the teams with 63 per cent believing spot-kicks will decide who lifts the trophy.
 
Interesting discussion between these two on key players : not everyone likes them (Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens) and although they can come up with, shall we say, 'weird' opinions now and again, in general they are insightful, honest and sometimes contrary. Subjects are noted in the timeline so you can skip anything not of interest.

One point made is that Laurens would play Hendo for Rice. Which, I stated in the opening post, I agree with.

 
Lineups. Predicted and Historical (Euro 2020).

England
Predicted line-up: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire, Shaw; Rice, Phillips; Saka, Mount, Sterling; Kane

Semi-final: England 2-1 Denmark (7 July)
Starting line-up: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire, Shaw; Phillips, Rice; Saka, Mount, Sterling; Kane
Quarter-final: Ukraine 0-4 England (3 July)
Starting line-up: Pickford; Walker, Maguire, Stones, Shaw; Rice, Phillips, Mount; Sancho, Kane, Sterling
Round of 16: England 2-0 Germany (29 June)
Starting line-up: Pickford; Walker, Maguire, Stones; Trippier, Phillips, Rice, Shaw; Saka, Kane, Sterling
Matchday 3: Czech Republic 0-1 England (22 June)
Starting line-up: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire, Shaw; Phillips, Rice; Saka, Grealish, Sterling; Kane
Matchday 2: England 0-0 Scotland (18 June)
Starting line-up: Pickford; James, Stones, Mings, Shaw; Rice, Phillips; Foden, Mount, Sterling; Kane
Matchday 1: England 1-0 Croatia (13 June)
Starting line-up: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Mings, Trippier; Phillips, Rice; Sterling, Mount, Foden; Kane

Italy
Predicted line-up: Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Emerson; Barella, Jorginho, Verratti; Chiesa, Immobile, Insigne

Semi-final: Italy 1-1 Spain (aet, Italy win 4-2 on pens) (6 July)
Starting line-up: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Emerson; Barella, Jorginho, Verratti; Chiesa, Immobile, Insigne
Quarter-final: Belgium 1-2 Italy (2 July)
Starting line-up: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Spinazzola; Barella, Jorginho, Verratti; Chiesa, Immobile, Insigne
Round of 16: Italy 2-1 Austria (aet) (26 June)
Starting line-up: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Acerbi, Spinazzola; Barella, Jorginho, Verratti; Berardi, Immobile, Insigne
Matchday 3: Italy 1-0 Wales (20 June)
Starting line-up: Donnarumma; Tolói, Bonucci, Bastoni, Emerson; Pessina, Jorginho, Verratti; Chiesa, Belotti, Bernardeschi
Matchday 2: Italy 3-0 Switzerland (16 June)
Starting line-up: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Spinazzola; Barella, Jorginho, Locatelli; Berardi, Immobile, Insigne
Matchday 1: Turkey 0-3 Italy (11 June)
Starting line-up: Donnarumma; Florenzi, Bonucci, Chiellini, Spinazzola; Barella, Jorginho, Locatelli; Berardi, Immobile, Insigne
 
PENALTIES

Most people, including commentators, are predicting it will come down to penalties. If it does then this is from the UEFA website :

Shoot-outs precipitated England's demise at the FIFA World Cups of 1990, 1998 and 2006; and the EUROs in 1996, 2004 and 2012, when Italy were the executioners (Andrea Pirlo's insouciant Panenka, anybody?). If it goes to penalties again on Sunday then expect resignation to reign among the majority at Wembley, but have the Azzurri cashed in their spot-kick chips too soon?

The unwritten law of EURO shootouts is that if you win one, you can't win another. No side have ever won two in a single tournament. Over the years, five teams have confidently lined up on halfway for penalties with a spot-kick victory fresh in their minds from the previous round – all ended up disappointed.

See here :
Teams with two shoot-outs at single EURO
1996 France: W 5-4 vs Netherlands (QF); L 6-5 vs Czech Republic (SF)
1996 England: W 4-2 vs Spain (QF); L 6-5 vs Germany (SF)
2016 Poland: W 5-4 vs Switzerland (R16); L 5-3 vs Portugal (QF)
2020 Switzerland: W 5-4 vs France (R16); L 3-1 vs Spain (QF)
2020 Spain: W 3-1 vs Switzerland (QF); L 4-2 vs Italy (SF)

Having seen off Spain 4-2 on penalties in the semi-finals on Tuesday, Italy will have to achieve something no nation has ever pulled off in EURO history if Sunday's final against England remains level after 120 minutes.

Cue history being made.
 
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A look back at the routes of the respective teams to the final. Yes, Italy were in the tougher half of the draw ... but they didn't have to play them all ! There's not much between them in terms of the quality of the opposition they've played (Belgium overrated at #1 and Czech probably underrated at #40 and maybe Germany too at #12) despite England being in the 'easier' half of the draw.

Italy
W vs Turkey 3-0 (world ranked 29th) (lost all 3 matches)
W vs Switzerland 3-0 (world ranked 13th) (draw 3-3 with France and 1-1 with Spain in the 1/4s)
W vs Wales 1-0 (the team they have played that are most like England?) (world ranked 17th) (lost 4-0 to Denmark)
W vs Austria 2-1 (hard pressing team) (world ranked 23rd) (beat Ukraine 1-0)
W vs Belgium 2-1 (over-rated at world ranked 1st)(beat Denmark 2-1 and Portugal 1-0)
D vs Spain 1-1 (AET + penalties but outplayed by Spain) (world ranked 6th) (best win 5-3 over Croatia, beat Switzerland on penalties)

England
W vs Croatia 1-0. (world ranked 14th) (lost 5-3 to Spain, beat Scotland 3-1)
D vs Scotland 0-0 (world ranked 17th) (crap)
W vs Czech 1-0 (world ranked 40th WTF ?!) (beat Netherlands 2-0 and lost 2-1 to Denmark)
W vs Germany 2-0 (world ranked 12th) (lost 1-0 to France, beat Portugal 4-2)
W vs Ukraine 4-0 (world ranked 24th) (lost 3-2 to NL and 1-0 to Austria)
W vs Denmark 2-1 AET (world ranked 10th) (lost 1-2 to Belgium, beat Wales 4-0)
 
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