[article=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/premier-league/10644977/The-stats-that-prove-Howard-Webb-bottles-big-decisions.html]The stats that prove Howard Webb bottles big decisions
Since refereeing the 2010 World Cup final, Howard Webb's decision-making in big matches has changed and Jonathan Liew reveals how...
Everybody loves having a pop at referees. Even referees. Howard Webb's display in the FA Cup tie between Arsenal and Liverpool attracted a good deal of criticism, not least from former referee Graham Poll. "With his experience and pedigree, Webb should do better," he wrote in his Daily Mail column.
But the problem with Webb, his detractors claim, isn't that he makes bad decisions. It's that he doesn't make decisions at all. On Sunday, he could have given Luis Suarez a penalty and sent off Steven Gerrard, but didn't. On Jan 1, he could have given Manchester United a penalty against Tottenham when Hugo Lloris brought down Ashley Young with four minutes left, but didn't.
When it comes to the big moments of the big games, so goes the theory, Webb swallows his whistle. Psychologists call this "omission bias" - the idea that not doing something when you should is better than doing something when you shouldn't.
This has been studied extensively in the United States, where it has been shown that NFL, NBA and Major League Baseball referees and umpires consistently fail to make decisions when they have the potential to change the course of a game. (If you want to read more, then a book called Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz and L Jon Wertheim has an excellent chapter on it.)
We wanted to test this theory on Webb. So we went through every single match he has refereed over the last four seasons. There have been 177 in total. In those games, he gave a total of 24 penalties and 22 red cards. We're not quite sure what that means.
The problem, you see, is that although we know how many decisions Webb made, we don't know how many decisions he could have made, but didn't. So for the purposes of comparison, we decided to see how Webb stacks up against his Premier League peers over the same period.
We decided to look at a number of hypothetical situations where a referee might be tempted to shirk a decision.
1) Penalties against the home side
Initially we decided to break down Webb's penalties by whether he gave them to the home or away team. Clearly, given the influence of the crowd, it's braver to award a penalty to the visitors than it is to the home side. But then home teams generally perform better, so you would expect them to win more penalties.
Here's how Webb compares to all Premier League referees over the last four seasons. We've excluded one penalty that Webb gave to Brazil against Scotland at the Emirates, which technically counts as a neutral game.
Penalties given to: Webb All PL refs
Home side 65.2% (15/23) 60.2% (203/337)
Away side 34.8% (8/23) 39.8% (134/337)
2) Late penalty
Next, let's consider when Webb gives his penalties. Across the Premier League as a whole, more than twice as many penalties are given in the last 15 minutes as in the first 15 minutes. Most people would agree that it is bolder to give a penalty late in a match, given its potential to alter the result.
Penalties given in: Webb All PL refs
0-15 min 12.5% (3) 11.2%
16-30 min 12.5% (3) 14.8%
31-45 min 16.7% (4) 17.7%
46-60 min 12.5% (3) 13.6%
61-75 min 29.2% (7) 18.8%
76-90 min 16.7% (4) 23.9%
So Webb is a lot less likely to give a penalty in the last 15 minutes than the average Premier League referee. Still, this is a small sample size, and the big spike in Webb penalties between 61 and 75 minutes means that the data is inconclusive at best. So let's consider another factor: the score in the game. Giving a penalty in the last minute when the score is 0-0 is a quite different proposition to when the score is 4-0.
3) Late game-changing penalty
We took all penalties given in the last half-hour of matches and split them into two categories: Crucial and Non-Crucial. We defined a crucial penalty as a penalty that had the potential to change the result of a match. So if a side gets a penatly when they're 1-0 down, that's crucial. If they're 1-0 up when they get the penalty, it's not crucial.
First we looked at all penalties given after the 60th minute in the Premier League over the last four seasons. This is how they split.
Crucial Not crucial
53.9% (83/154) 46.1% (71/154)
Over the same period, Webb has given 11 penalties in the last half-hour. This is how they split.
Crucial Not crucial
9.1% (1/11) 90.9% (10/11)
Yep. Webb has only given one potentially result-changing penalty in the last four seasons, across all competitions.
Still, let's acknowledge the limitations of our control group. Webb's fellow referees may well carry the same prejudices, just to a lesser degree. Some may be over-cautious, some may be too interventionist. In order to make the comparison truly fair, we need to compare Webb with a referee with similar characteristics.
There's a reason we only looked at the last four seasons. In July 2010, Webb took charge of the World Cup final, the pinnacle of his career, an achievement which brought him worldwide renown and a sharply increased level of scrutiny. Before the World Cup, you might have heard of him, but you probably didn't know that much about him. After it, he instantly became the most recognisable referee in England, perhaps the world. How does the post-2010 Webb compare with the pre-2010 version?
Not well.
From 2001 to 2010, Webb refereed at virtually every level of professional football, from Champions League to League Two, from the Community Shield to the Under-17 World Cup. In that time, he awarded 75 penalties. Let's see how they compare with his post-2010 statistics.
Penalties given to: Until WC final After WC final
Home team 56.9% (41/72) 65.2%
Away team 43.1% (31/72) 34.8%
(Excludes three penalties awarded on neutral turf)
Penalties given in: Until WC final After WC final
Last 15 minutes 23.0% 16.7%
In last half an hour Until WC final After WC final
Crucial 57.6% (19/33) 9.1%
Not crucial 42.4% (14/33) 90.9%
So it seems that Webb's career can be split into two parts. Until 2010, he was less likely to give a penalty to the home team, more likely to give a penalty late in the game, and overwhelmingly more likely to give a penalty that could affect the result.
Whether Webb was a good referee who got worse, or vice versa, is too subjective a judgement. What is clear is that he has started to referee games differently since he became famous.
Let's look at red cards.
4) Red card to the home side
Webb has given 68 red cards in his career. In the Premier League, around 60 per cent of red cards go to the away team. What the data shows is that Webb is more likely to send off a visiting player than the average Premier League referee. This discrepancy has increased since the World Cup final.
Red card to: Until WC final After WC final Average PL
Home team 38.1% (16/42) 36.4% (8/22) 40.3% (85/211)
Away team 61.9% (26/42) 63.6% (14/22) 59.7% (126/211)
(Excludes four red cards awarded on neutral turf. Yes, Nigel De Jong was one of them)
5) Red card and penalty in the same incident
Of all the decisions a referee can make, this is the one that perhaps has the biggest potential impact on a game. Generally applies to professional fouls, goalkeeper fouls and handball on the line. On average, 11.4 per cent of Premier League dismissals also result in a penalty. If Webb really is as risk-averse as some claim, you would expect his ratio to be lower. So, is it?
Well, sort of.
Red card: Until WC final After WC final Average PL
With penalty 15.2% (7/46) 4.5% (1/22) 11.4% (24/211)
Without penalty 84.8% (39/46) 95.5% (21/22) 88.6% (187/211)
Only once in the last four seasons has Webb given a red card and a penalty at the same time. That was when Per Mertesacker fouled Shane Long in the 70th minute of West Brom v Arsenal in April 2013. Even then, Arsenal were winning 2-0 at the time, so it could be argued that it was not a crucial decision. Indeed, even after James Morrison converted the penalty, Arsenal went on to win 2-1.
But until 2010, it's a completely different story. Until his moment of Cape Town jubilee, Webb was actually more likely to give a penalty and a red card than the average referee.
Almost done now.
6) Early red card
You know what they say about early red cards. Ref's ruined the game, hasn't he? Ruined it as a spectacle. Ended the game as a contest. We want dangerous play to be punished, but not at the expense of an fair fight. Which is why it's an exceptionally brave referee who sends a player off in the first 15 minutes.
First of all, let's look at our control group. In the last four Premier League seasons, there have been 211 red cards. That includes both straight reds and two yellows. This is how they break down.
0-15 min 4.3% (9)
16-30 min 8.5% (18)
31-45 min 12.8% (27)
46-60 min 17.5% (37)
61-75 min 19.9% (42)
76-90 min 37.0% (78)
Unsurprisingly, the chances of seeing a red card increase as the game goes on. But you do see some players sent off early on.
So, a quiz. Howard Webb has refereed 500 matches, at all levels of the game, over 13 years. How many times do you think he's sent a player off in the first 15 minutes?
If you said none, come down to the front and collect your prize. You're right.
Howard Webb red cards (whole career)
0-15 min 0.0% (0)
16-30 min 7.4% (5)
31-45 min 17.6% (12)
46-60 min 16.2% (11)
61-75 min 23.5% (16)
76-90 min 30.9% (21)
(Excludes three red cards in extra time)
What this proves (and what it doesn't)
One thing we didn't find was any evidence of club bias. Webb has given penalties to Manchester United at Old Trafford and given penalties against United at Old Trafford. He's decided to send off Steven Gerrard and decided not to send off Steven Gerrard.
Nor does it prove that he's a bad referee. What it does show is that since 2010, he has become a lot more wary of influencing a game. He's less likely to give a penalty late on, and less likely still if there's a chance it might affect the result. He's less likely to send a home player off, less likely to award a penalty with a red card and has never, ever sent a player off in the first 15 minutes. Lee Cattermole, hope you're taking notes.
What this means is that the next time there's a big 50-50 decision to be made in a big game - a last-minute penalty, for example, or a crucial sending off - then there's a strong chance Webb will simply wave play on.[/article]
Probably could do with Binnying but I'm not fit to lace the big man's boots .
