It is.
The whole idea of moneyball is to find value that others cant find via the use of stats to build a better inforned picture.
Literally none of our signings fall into that category .
We've stuck with buying overpriced Premiership proven talent because our managers have been as stupid as our fans
But if you place any weight at all upon statistics, then you are including stupid information in your decision making process. You are statistically more likely to get it wrong. What I'm saying is that statistics is just a guise for being lazy, turning off your brain, and being unwilling to do the hard work of building a team. The only reason that statistics ever work, is because over a very large sample or over a very long time, your data will include every eventuality multiple times. The results will even out into a nice bell shaped curve like this.
Let's use the history of Liverpool. The average net number of goals we score per game is, I don't know let's say 1.7. Over the last 120 odd years that is the mean. So if you can plot all of that data out from every single game, it will be a bell curve. That gives you a good guide as to the future, where over the next hundred years our goal scoring will fall under a similar distribution with a similar standard deviation. All good.
The point is, it is lazy. It doesn't factor in that goalscoring isn't a random phenomenon at all. It is deterministic. It depends upon fundamental reasons and mechanisms. Using your brain will tell you that at this point in time with this squad and with Lucas in our team, we are fucking shit. We are fucking shit. For the foreseeable future we will not be scoring anywhere near 1.7 net goals per game. Yet you would still have us follow the statistics and place our spread bets around 1.7. Why? Because it is "objective" or is "evidence based" or is "clever"? Don't listen to statisticians. Listen to me, I'm
@dantes. You'd get wiped out and end up broke because you'd be wrong. You would be ignoring the reality of Lucas which is before your eyes. If you go to the gambling thread and see how
@Pesam places his bets, and the background research of the deterministic factors he takes into account, that's how you make good decisions. But people no longer want to work that hard, or spend the time to become that clever.
It's a problem in every field. In medicine, in scientific research, in options trading. Lazy people using off the shelf statistics equations, instead of understanding the true mechanics and making their own equations. The last hundred years of stock price data falls under a random distribution which is how investment banks model it. Now why do you suppose they fucked up? Statistics are static, once all the results are in they model the entire collection. That is all they do. The real world needs you to react, adapt and model things which are changing, or are dynamic. Only a good scout can do that. Just because over many years and lots of players, a certain statistic works.... it is completely useless for one club, at one time with one player. Those statistics are built up using all clubs in all countries. What if something about Liverpool makes us an outlier? A black swan? Then for us, the statistics will be wrong every single time. And you would never know why because you would never use your brain.
