Betting 2012 weekly football bets.

[Pesam]

[quote author=redsar link=topic=46434.msg1398808#msg1398808 date=1315986400]
One question. When in-play results go against you and it's almost certain you will lose do you spread the loss equaly on all outcomes or you try to speculate a bit more ...
[/quote]

If I've done about 5 bets and 4 of them are looking almost certain to win and one is losing then sometimes I'll spread the loss of the losing bet as I'll be making a decent profit from the others.

Regularly, if I strongly fancy a team but they concede early, I'll back them again and a much better price (i.e. increase my liability) in the belief they will still come back. Last season I fancied Scunthorpe to surprise the top team QPR (at Scunthorpe) and layed QPR for about £200 at about 1.8. QPR scored early and their price went to 1.33ish and I put another £200 against QPR. When Scunthorpe equalised I then sold a bit of the bet and left the rest ride.......final score Scunthorpe 4-1 QPR and I won over £340.

 

[redsar]

Thanks for answer. Last night, I backed Barca at 1.7 after they conceded but didn't trade out and then came the 90th minute equalizer. 🙁

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=redsar link=topic=46434.msg1398818#msg1398818 date=1315987962]
Thanks for answer. Last night, I backed Barca at 1.7 after they conceded but didn't trade out and then came the 90th minute equalizer. 🙁
[/quote]

Unlucky Redsar. I also had a bet when they went 1-0 down but sold it for a profit after they equalised. I never feel too confident betting on the Champions League because I don't watch a lot of European football if we're not involved.

 

[Pesam]

Struggling to find toomuch value this week.............

Very small lay of Tranmere beating Wycombe @1.98
Small lay of Reading beating Doncaster @ 1.67
Medium lay of Watford winning at Barnsley @ 2.86
Small lay of Walsall beating Scunthorpe @ 2.76
Small-Medium lay of Swindon winning at Burton @ 2.68
Small lay of MK Dons beating Huddersfield @2.2
Small lay of Oxford winning at Barnet @ 2.48

 

[Pesam]

Soccer / Barnsley v Watford : Match Odds 17-Sep-11 15:00 17-Sep-11 17:35 64.67
Soccer / Reading v Doncaster : Match Odds 17-Sep-11 15:00 17-Sep-11 17:16 -33.50
Soccer / Walsall v Scunthorpe : Match Odds 17-Sep-11 15:00 17-Sep-11 17:13 28.53
Soccer / Burton v Swindon : Match Odds 17-Sep-11 15:00 17-Sep-11 17:13 57.06
Soccer / Barnet v Oxford Utd : Match Odds 17-Sep-11 15:00 17-Sep-11 17:12 -88.80
Soccer / Tranmere v Wycombe : Match Odds 17-Sep-11 15:00 17-Sep-11 17:10 -34.65
Soccer / MK Dons v Huddersfield : Match Odds 17-Sep-11 15:00 17-Sep-11 17:02 56.11

Small profit of £40 from the weekend so overall season profit is £390.

 

[Pesam]

£17 Cody McDonald 1st goalscorer v Ipswich @ 12/1

 

[Pesam]

Medium lay of Middlesbro winning tonight at Crystal Palace @ 2.32.

99% of the time I wait for the confirmed line-ups before placing my bet but the current lay price of Middlesbro (2.32) is just too damned attractive and I don't think I will be able to avail of this price later so am taking a chance that the team line-ups will be similar to what they were when these 2 teams played each other at the weekend.

Edit: Also...............

Small lay of Villa beating Bolton @1.75
Small lay of Aldershot beating Rochdale @ 2.14
£18 Ross McCormack 1st goalscorer versus Man United @ 12/1

 

[Pesam]

People reading too much into Middlesbro's victory at Palace at the weekend and the price is way too low so my MEDIUM lay is now a LARGE lay of Middlesbro winning at 2.32

 

[Pesam]

On a wing and a prayer...................£2 @ 130/1 Leeds and Man Utd to draw (currently half time 0-3)

 

[Pesam]

My liability on Palace losing was over £600 so now that they have the lead I've layed some back and now have a liability of £127 and a profit of £372 on Palace or the draw.

Edit: 2-1 now and I'm laying a bit more (a few quid at a time).........liability now £51 with a potential profit of £363

 

[Pesam]

Football / C Palace v Middlesbrough : Match Odds 20-Sep-11 20:00 20-Sep-11 21:56 345.21 (less £20 from my 3% challenge)
Football / Wolves v Millwall : Match Odds 20-Sep-11 19:45 20-Sep-11 21:39 19.02 (not included as it's from my 3% challenge)
Football / Aldershot v Rochdale : Match Odds 20-Sep-11 19:45 20-Sep-11 21:37 -39.20
Football / Aston Villa v Bolton : Match Odds 20-Sep-11 19:45 20-Sep-11 21:37 52.30
Football / Leeds v Man Utd : Match Odds 20-Sep-11 19:45 20-Sep-11 21:35 -2.00
Football / Leeds v Man Utd : First Goalscorer 20-Sep-11 19:45 20-Sep-11 20:59 -18.00


Profit for the night £318 giving an overall profit of £691

 

[Pesam]

£20 lay of LFC winning against Brighton (currently 1-0 up) to win £100

 

[Rosco]

what ?

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=Rosco link=topic=46434.msg1402982#msg1402982 date=1316635737]
what ?
[/quote]

I've bet against us winning. I think we probably will win but the price was crazy i.e. 1/5 us winning the game with 40 minutes to go and Brighton playing well - ht eprice should have been about 1/3.

 

[Pesam]

Brighton 0-2 Leeds after 37minutes. I've layed Leeds winning £25 to win £100 i.e. price of 1.25

 

[Pesam]

1-2 after 48 minutes. No liability now and potential profit on a brighton win or draw is £67

 

[Pesam]

Medium lay of Crawley winning at Aldershot at 2.4
Small lay of Reading winning at Coventry @ 2.38
Small bet on Cheltenham to beat Hereford @ 1.81
Small bet over 2.5 goals in Doncaster V Palace game @ 2.12
Small lay of MK Dons winning at Bury @ 2.2

 

[Pesam]

Medium lay of Cardiff beating Leicester @ 2.36

 

[Pesam]

0-0 with 20 minutes to go so I'm going to start laying off my liability.

Liability now £150 with £220 potential profit.
Finished laying off...........liability now £73 with potential profit £200.

 

[Pesam]

Football / Cardiff v Leicester : Match Odds 25-Sep-11 13:15 25-Sep-11 15:11 188.30
Football / Stoke v Man Utd : Match Odds 24-Sep-11 17:30 24-Sep-11 19:26 123.63
Football / Doncaster v C Palace : Over/Under 2.5 goals 24-Sep-11 15:00 24-Sep-11 17:01 -45.00
Football / Scunthorpe v Yeovil : Match Odds 24-Sep-11 15:00 24-Sep-11 16:59 31.47 (* Not included as it's part of my 3% challenge)
Football / Aldershot v Crawley Town : Match Odds 24-Sep-11 15:00 24-Sep-11 16:55 -201.73
Football / Coventry v Reading : Match Odds 24-Sep-11 15:00 24-Sep-11 16:54 47.55
Football / Bury v MK Dons : Match Odds 24-Sep-11 15:00 24-Sep-11 16:53 66.57
Football / Cheltenham v Hereford : Match Odds 24-Sep-11 15:00 24-Sep-11 16:52 -69.00
Football / Man City v Everton : Match Odds 24-Sep-11 12:45 24-Sep-11 14:39 9.13 (*Not included, part of my 3% challenge)
Football / Brighton v Leeds : Match Odds 23-Sep-11 19:45 23-Sep-11 21:39 70.61

Profit for the weekend of £177 giving an overall profit of £848

 

[Pesam]

£14 @ 8/1 Morison 1st goal v Sunderland
£18 @ 21/1 Bennett 1st goal v Sunderland
£7 @ 20/1 Pilkington 1st goal v Sunderland

Edit: Actually I'm going to assign £2 of each of these bets to my 3% challenge.

 

[SummerOnions]

Cracking haul there mate, well played!

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=SummerOnions link=topic=46434.msg1405537#msg1405537 date=1317081646]
Cracking haul there mate, well played!
[/quote]

Cheers SO, it's been a decent start to the season, hopefully continued tonight..............

Small-Medium lay of Hull wining at Doncaster @ 2.78
Small lay of Reading winning at Bristol City @ 2.5
Small - Medium lay of Bayern beating City @ 1.8 (although Champions League is not usually profitable for me)
Small lay of Preston winning at Wycome @ 2.14

 

[Pesam]

Will update this tomorrow.

Small lay of Southampton winning at Cardiff @ 2.66

 

[Pesam]

Soccer / Tottenham v Shamrock Rovers : First Goalscorer 29-Sep-11 20:05 29-Sep-11 21:30 -3.00*
Soccer / Celtic v Udinese : Match Odds 29-Sep-11 18:00 29-Sep-11 19:51 8.75*
Soccer / Cardiff v Southampton : Match Odds 28-Sep-11 19:45 28-Sep-11 21:42 56.11 (* £10 of this is connected to my 3% challenge)
Soccer / Doncaster v Hull : Match Odds 27-Sep-11 19:45 27-Sep-11 21:43 161.84
Soccer / Wycombe v Preston : Match Odds 27-Sep-11 19:45 27-Sep-11 21:40 -74.10
Soccer / Derby v Barnsley : Match Odds 27-Sep-11 19:45 27-Sep-11 21:39 33.28
Soccer / B Munich v Man City : Match Odds 27-Sep-11 19:45 27-Sep-11 21:35 -176.90
Soccer / Norwich v Sunderland : First Goalscorer 26-Sep-11 20:00 26-Sep-11 20:59 -39.00 (* £6 of this loss is from my 3% challenge)

Although this shows a £48 loss I am going to treat it as a £108 loss as some how I inadvertantly didn't place the bet that I advised on Tuesday (small lay of Reading winning at Bristol City) which lost. I suppose I must have layed the price but hadn't noticed that my bet was not "matched" by anyone. In reality it was a lucky escape but in the context of this thread I want the total to be judged on bets that I advise.

Bank now at £740

 

[Pesam]

Small lay of Preston winning at Leyton Orient @ 2.12
Small lay of Tranmere beating Bournemouth @ 2.16
Very small bet on Doncaster to win at Peterbro @ 5.2
Small - Medium lay of West Ham winning at Palace @ 2.26
Small lay of Burton beating Bradford City @ 2.2
£10 on David Goodwillie 1st goal v Man City @ 16/1
Very small lay of Oxford winning at hereford @ 1.96

 

[Pesam]

Aguero off injured after 25 minutes.........£26 lay of City winning to win £40

 

[Pesam]

£3 Bryson 1st goal for Derby v Leicester 40/1
£4 J. Ward 1st goal v Leicester @ 17/1

 

[Pesam]

Soccer / Tottenham v Arsenal : Match Odds 02-Oct-11 16:00 02-Oct-11 18:00 2.86 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Leicester v Derby : First Goalscorer 01-Oct-11 17:20 01-Oct-11 17:50 -7.00
Soccer / Peterborough v Doncaster : Match Odds Unmanaged 01-Oct-11 15:00 01-Oct-11 17:04 79.97
Soccer / C Palace v West Ham : Match Odds 01-Oct-11 15:00 01-Oct-11 17:03 124.35 (£20 of this is part of my 3% challenge)
Soccer / Burton v Bradford : Match Odds 01-Oct-11 15:00 01-Oct-11 17:01 57.06
Soccer / L Orient v Preston : Match Odds 01-Oct-11 15:00 01-Oct-11 16:59 57.06
Soccer / Tranmere v Bournemouth : Match Odds 01-Oct-11 15:00 01-Oct-11 16:56 47.55
Soccer / Hereford v Oxford Utd : Match Odds 01-Oct-11 15:00 01-Oct-11 16:53 -28.80
Soccer / Blackburn v Man City : Match Odds 01-Oct-11 15:00 01-Oct-11 16:49 -25.60
Soccer / Blackburn v Man City : First Goalscorer 01-Oct-11 15:00 01-Oct-11 16:33 -10.00
Soccer / Everton v Liverpool : First Goalscorer 01-Oct-11 12:45 01-Oct-11 14:56 -4.00 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Everton v Liverpool : Correct Score 01-Oct-11 12:45 01-Oct-11 14:45 -3.00 (Not included - My Brother asked me to stick £3 on a 2-2 draw for him)
Soccer / Everton v Liverpool : Match Odds 01-Oct-11 12:45 01-Oct-11 14:42 4.75 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Southend v Shrewsbury : Over/Under 2.5 goals 30-Sep-11 19:45 30-Sep-11 21:38 11.18 (3% Challenge)
Soccer / Macclesfield v Swindon : Over/Under 2.5 goals 30-Sep-11 19:45 30-Sep-11 21:37 -12.00 (3% Challenge)

Profit of £281 for the weekend giving an overall profit of £1021.

 

[Pesam]

Small lay of Preston winning at Morecambe @ 2.44

Scunthorpe 0-1 Oldham after 30 minutes - Small lay of Oldham winning at 1.99