Betting 2012-13 Weekly bets

[Pesam]

£144 lay of Crawley beating Doncaster to win £100.

I've taken this price because it's very good value and I'm not sure it will be available this evening. Having said that, the last couple of times I've "locked-in" a price early the price went even lower! I did win both bets so it proved I was probably right about the price being good value but sometimes the price moves in odd directions for odd reasons.

I'll check the team news before kick off and confirm the bet if i like what i see (and what I expect).

IMO Crawley & Doncaster should both be between 2.7-2.8 tonight (Crawley are currently 2.44)


Edit: I put a couple of hundred on at 2.42 and to my surprise it's been snatched-up....someone really fancies Crawley!

My liability is now £432 on Crawley and potential profit on Donny or the draw is £300.

 

[Pesam]

Ok, not totally happy with the Donnyline-upbut still reckon they're easily capable of getting at least a draw. The price has changed in my favour (Crawley 2.52) so have backed Crawley heavily to reduce myliability.

- £50 Crawley
+ £50 Draw
+ £50 Donny

Also £9 Coppinger first goal to win £180

 

[Pesam]

£10 LeFondre 1st goal United v Reading to win £135
£4 Hunt 1st goal to win £80

 

[Pesam]

I'm gonna do another treble tonight (even though i usually advise against them!). The prices of these 3 games are all askew IMO and even though I expect Munich to be too strong for Arsenal 4.1 (3/1) is a crazy price for the home team (should be 2/1 IMO).

Similarly Wolves should be 2.7ish and not 3.35 and Blackburn, who have DJ Campbell and Jordan Rhodes up front have a better chance of winning than their price of 3/1 suggests (should be 9/4 IMO).

So I'm getting 52/1 for a treble that I reckon has a 30-35/1 chance of coming up.

£5 treble to win £260

 

[Pesam]

Bank +£1750

 

[Pesam]

£30 Arsenal to beat Bayern to win £102
£25 Huddersfield to win at Forest to win £102
£61 lay of Northampton winning at Wimbledon to win £40
£63 lay of Rotherham winning at Bristol Rovers to win £40
£100 lay of Barnsley beating Wolves to win £75
£54 lay of Derby beating Bolton to win £35

 

[Pesam]

£30 Arsenal to beat Bayern to win £102
£25 Huddersfield to win at Forest to win £102
£61 lay of Northampton winning at Wimbledon to win £40
£63 lay of Rotherham winning at Bristol Rovers to win £40
£100 lay of Barnsley beating Wolves to win £75
£54 lay of Derby beating Bolton to win £35

Forest 0-1 Huddersfield after 7 minutes.....sold the liability in the bet....now finish level on the draw or Forest win and +£70 Huddersfield win.

 

[Pesam]

Leicester 0-1 Charlton..............£48 lay of charlton winning to win £30

 

[Pesam]

£30 Arsenal to beat Bayern to win £102
£25 Huddersfield to win at Forest to win £102
£61 lay of Northampton winning at Wimbledon to win £40
£63 lay of Rotherham winning at Bristol Rovers to win £40
£100 lay of Barnsley beating Wolves to win £75
£54 lay of Derby beating Bolton to win £35

Half time Barnsley 0-1 Wolves..... backed Barnsley now at about 7.6 (13/2) to leave a profit on all eventualities......

+£35 Barnsley
+£55 Draw
+£55 Wolves

 

[Pesam]

Cashed oout of Derby v Bolton @ 1-1 so £26 profit on any result.

 

[Pesam]

Wimbledon 1-1 Northampton with 10 minutes to go...........sold some liability

-£17 Northampton
+£30 Wombles
+£30 Draw

 

[Pesam]

£2 Scot Cuthbert 1st goal Southend v Orient to win £158

 

[Pesam]

£10 Downing 1st goal LFC v Zenit to win £170

 

[Pesam]

£20 Sheffield United to win at Bournemouth to win £60
£10 Burnley to win at Brighton to win £30
£40 over 2.5 goals Barnet v Rochdale to win £40
£10 Plymouth to beat Northampton to win £36

Slim pickings so far,very little value around. Hopefully a few opportunities arise as goals start going in.

£10 Naismith 1st goal Norwich v Everton to win £106
£4 Brad Johnson 1st goal Norwich v Everton to win £180

 

[Pesam]

Scunthorpe 0-2 Hartlepool......£48 lay of Hartlepool winning to win £200

I was hoping Doncaster would be losing at home toYeovil at half time and then lay Yeovil but unfortunately Donny equalised in the 45th minute.Hume & Syers who are Donny'sbest 2 players and just back from injury should come on as 2nd half subs so I'll still have a bet.......................£50 Donny to beat Yeovil to win £90 (half time 1-1)

 

[Pesam]

£420 lay of Shrews beating Doncaster to win £220
£50 Rotherham to beat York to win £37
£25 Blackburn to win at Leicester to win £105
£5 accumulator; Blackburn, Doncaster, Exeter & Rotherham all to win...wins £530

 

[Pesam]

£420 lay of Shrews beating Doncaster to win £220
£50 Rotherham to beat York to win £37
£25 Blackburn to win at Leicester to win £105
£5 accumulator; Blackburn, Doncaster, Exeter & Rotherham all to win...wins £530

For the record, I have to nip out unexpectedly tonight so won't get a chance to adapt these bets in-running BUT if Shrews were to score 1st v Doncaster tonight (in the first half) I'd lay Shrews quite heavily.

 

[Pesam]

God bless pubs with wifi.....shrews 0-0 but had a man sent off. Backed them £20 at 7/1 so liability now down to 300.

 

[Pesam]

Bank @ +£1698

 

[Pesam]

Very strange odds in Doncaster v Hartlepool game. Doncaster are 1.9 (10/11) to win but IMO are a 1.5-1.6 shot.

Top of the table at home to 2nd last! I know Hartlepool are top of the current form league i.e. they have the best record of any team in the division over the last 7 games BUT they have had a run of games in which they've caught teams; out of form, missing key players or just shit teams.

Doncaster on the other hand have just got their 2 best players back from injury, Syers and Hume, and also will hopefully now be able to move Coppinger back out to his preferred wide position.

I've currently bet £1,000 on the Doncaster win...to win £900.

As ever I'll wait until 2:30 to check the offical team news but as long as Jones, Cotterill, Coppinger, Syers and Hume all start the game I'll be going bawdeep on the Donny win.

 

[Pesam]

Edit: technically I got 1.89 odds but I have another £343 waiting at 1.90....hopefully someone takes it.

 

[Pesam]

Edit: technically I got 1.89 odds but I have another £343 waiting at 1.90....hopefully someone takes it.

Someone's nibbling away at my 1.90 price...about half of it taken!

 

[Pesam]

£20 Kevin Doyle 1st goal Wolves v Watford to win £220
£2 Gorkks 1st goal to win £98

 

[Pesam]

Could be a pivotal day formy bank balance today.........up £1,600+ so far and probably going to stick with my £1,000 bet on Donny (I will confirm before kick off when I've seen the confirmed team news).

I'm certainly not saying they're a cert to win but IMO Donny would win this fixture 2 out 3 times they play.....so Evens (near enough) is tremendous value.

If I was level for the season I'd probably only risk about £200 but as I'm well in profit I feel I've earned the right to have the odd big splash.

If Donny score first I'll probably lay off some of the liability. The interesting scenario will be if Hartlepool score first because there will be a huge temptation to lay the Hartlepool win for another large amount.

 

[Pesam]

£67 lay of Rotherham beating Southend to win £41
£50 lay of Accrington beating Torquay to win £40
£50 over 2.5 goals Donny v Hartlepool to win £56

*Team news looks good to me so the £1,000 bet on Donny to win stands.....to win £900

£25 Bradford City to win at York to win £42
£35 Huddersfield towin at Brighton to win £164
£12 LeFondre 1st goal v Everton to win £132

 

[Pesam]

£5 trebles and accumulator on Bolton, Yeovil, Donny & Huddersfield winning to win £683

 

[Pesam]

!-0 to Donny, traded a bit of the bet......liability now £800 with potential profit £831

Edit: Half time 1-0, traded more, +£660 Doncaster -£266 Hartlepool/Draw.

 

[Pesam]

2-0 no liability now and £639 profit on Donny win.

 

[Pesam]

£12 Kone 1st goal Wigan v LFC to win £114
£10 Glenjo 1st goal to win £310

 

[SummerOnions]

Good betting!