10 minutes to go, 1-0 to Celtic, have taken a £5.40 profit.
Betting Turning £100 into £2,500 AKA The 1% Challenge..2012/13
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Hi Modelman, to be honest I didn't think it was necessary to update it because I did suggest the bet was an all-or-nothing bet by prefacing it with "last chance saloon". I figured that when I didn't post afterwards it was clear that the bet lost and my bank was bust.
I've done this challenge for the last 2 seasons and it's very, very, difficult but I definitely think 1% per day is doable although unlikely. The problem, as ever, is that when you fall behind the schedule the pressure builds and you start taking on riskier bets and when a couple of those lose the challenge is over.
I think next season I'm going to...........................fuck next season, I'll start this again now.
Ok, I'm starting with £100, I'll take a break during the summer months as I only bet on football and obviously my target amount will not rise during the summer months.
You fancy joining in Modelman?
I've done this challenge for the last 2 seasons and it's very, very, difficult but I definitely think 1% per day is doable although unlikely. The problem, as ever, is that when you fall behind the schedule the pressure builds and you start taking on riskier bets and when a couple of those lose the challenge is over.
I think next season I'm going to...........................fuck next season, I'll start this again now.
Ok, I'm starting with £100, I'll take a break during the summer months as I only bet on football and obviously my target amount will not rise during the summer months.
You fancy joining in Modelman?
Hi Pesam, well done with the Chelsea bet. I've been thinking, wouldn't it be a much safer route and
no doubt profitable one to bet say 10% of your capital at the highest it has been during a run.
eg: starting bank 500 bet 10%=50 it loses, bank is now 450 so bet remains at 50 that wins, +80 profit
bank now 530 so next bet is 53. If you could find 3-5 solid bets per day and given a say 75% strike rate or more then you could double your bank in around 30 days depending on the odds of winning bets.
Worth thinking about as you have a high strike rate.
no doubt profitable one to bet say 10% of your capital at the highest it has been during a run.
eg: starting bank 500 bet 10%=50 it loses, bank is now 450 so bet remains at 50 that wins, +80 profit
bank now 530 so next bet is 53. If you could find 3-5 solid bets per day and given a say 75% strike rate or more then you could double your bank in around 30 days depending on the odds of winning bets.
Worth thinking about as you have a high strike rate.
Hi Modelman, good post and good questions.....I'll answer tomorrow as I'm wayyyy too hungover to structure a decent response........I'm too old for 3 day drinking sessions :-(
It's difficult to explain my "method" briefly but I'll try; and last night's match might help highlight my usual method.
Firstly, thank you for the flattery BUT my success/strike rate with regular bets (e.g. in-and-around Evens, 6/5, 5/6, etc) would be nowhere near "75%", I doubt anyone could achieve that. In fact I reckon my strike rate would be as low as 55%-60% but the reason (I think) I'm quite succesful is that I'm good at spotting VALUE bets and IMO it's the only way you can win at gambling.....recognising when a price is "wrong".
Take last night's game as an example; I fully expected LFC to win but IMO WBA were a 5/1 shot - so in my mind (and if I'm right) if I bet on 5/1 shots 6 times I should get one winner. If you put £20 on 6 genuine 5/1 shots and you get one winner you will break even BUT imagine if someone gave you 8/1 on these genuine 5/1 shots! You'd only need 1 to win to make a decent profit.
For me it's like rolling a dice, I get to choose a number and get 8/1 on that number - I might lose regularly but if I roll that dice 100 times at those odds i know I'll end up in profit.
The trick is identifying the value and last night it was quite obvious but most weekends it's more difficult. You need to identify a price that's at least 20% out to really make it work your while because you have to allow a few percentage points leeway on your own price (as there might be one or two factors of a match that you don't know about) and you have to allow for Betfair to take their 5% cut of any winning bet.
When I tend to look at a match I try not to work out who is going to win but instead figure out what chance there is of each team winning. Take for instance Man Utd v Reading..........I reckon mug bettors would just plump on United and not even look at the price too carefully but think about it like this.....................
What if Unitted were 1/100 to win; would you bet £100 to win £1.00? Alternatively imagine Reading were 10,000/1 - everyone would stick a few quid on them. The trick is to figure out how much bigger United's price should be and how much smaller Reading's price should be.
My theory is that, if I bet about £20,000 per season, then if I'm correct that I can identify these 20%+ anomolies then, even though a lot of my bets will lose I should end up in profit by 20% x £20,000 = £4,000, which is approximately my average over the last 7 or 8 seasons.
I mentioned that I look for a 20% edge, at least, on my bets but, as with last night, I can regularly find bigger discrepancies and last night WBA were 60% over priced (and McAuley was 80% over priced)
I tend not to get overly involved in betting certain percentages of my bank each week, I usually leave the size of my bets to instinct ALTHOUGH as my bank increases each season I usually feel more at liberty to splash out on a few speculative bets nearer the end of the season.....I would suggest I'll be doing another £500 bet (or 2) within the next month.
I hope these ramblings from some sort of coherent explanation as to how and why I do my bets.
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