Betting 2012-13 Weekly bets
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Ok, I don't do this very often but..................a bet based on a hunch!
I've layed Swindon winning at Crawley tomorrow (5:20pm kick off) £660 to win £480.
Reasoning: Crawley are an average 1st division team; Swindon have just sold their best player (Matt Ritchie) to rivals Bournemouth, they have big financial problems, there are all sorts of takover promises that never seem to materialise AND there's rumours that DiCanio is very unhappy with the sale of Ritchie and might quit.
This bet is placed in case DiCanio does quit. I think the current price 2.36-2.38 is about right (maybe they should be slightly higher 2.46ish) but I reckon if DiCanio quits they'll go to 2.66-2.7ish and I'd be able to lock-in a profit before a ball is kicked. If DiCanio doesn't quit I should be able to sell this bet for a similar price before kick off and get my money back.
I've layed Swindon winning at Crawley tomorrow (5:20pm kick off) £660 to win £480.
Reasoning: Crawley are an average 1st division team; Swindon have just sold their best player (Matt Ritchie) to rivals Bournemouth, they have big financial problems, there are all sorts of takover promises that never seem to materialise AND there's rumours that DiCanio is very unhappy with the sale of Ritchie and might quit.
This bet is placed in case DiCanio does quit. I think the current price 2.36-2.38 is about right (maybe they should be slightly higher 2.46ish) but I reckon if DiCanio quits they'll go to 2.66-2.7ish and I'd be able to lock-in a profit before a ball is kicked. If DiCanio doesn't quit I should be able to sell this bet for a similar price before kick off and get my money back.
Haven't had too much to drink yet despite being in thye oub since 12.00 for the rugby. I haven't spotted too much good value though so no big bets as yet.
The bet yesterday laying Swindon typifies why I usually don't bet in advance because bizarre things happen like the price has gone the other way. I expected Swindon to be about 2.6 today and instead they've shortened to 2.2. It makes no sense.
The problem I have is that Scotland v England and Man Utd v Fulham are on at the same time and I'm heading back to the oub now to meet back-u[p with "the lads"......so hopefully by the time the Crawley game kicks off I'm going to be sober enough to reflect on the team news and make the right decision.
I'm prepared to leave the bet stand if I like the look o9f the Crawley team but realistically I might consider laying some of the bet oiff. If I have interent connection in thye oub I'll endeavour to post my decision before kick off.
Right, I'm off to back to the pub to cheer Ireland on to voctory, shouldn't fuck up with this lead.
How strange that I spelled pub "oub" 3 times in the above post...........maybe I was drunker than I thought!
Anyway, I didn't have good internet connection in the pub so I couldn't update the bet................when I found out that Crawley were fielding what I considered a fairly weak line up I "sold" a lot of the bet. I ended up winning £81 on the bet.
Obviously in hindsight if I'd left the bet I would have won nearly £500 but selling the majority of the bet was the right move.
Anyway, I didn't have good internet connection in the pub so I couldn't update the bet................when I found out that Crawley were fielding what I considered a fairly weak line up I "sold" a lot of the bet. I ended up winning £81 on the bet.
Obviously in hindsight if I'd left the bet I would have won nearly £500 but selling the majority of the bet was the right move.
Got a tenner on LFC at 1-0 down to win £100
cashed out for £60 profit woo
Kerfuckingching indeed, and how obvious was it that my "McAuley fixation" was finally going to pay dividends AGAINST US. I have a dream that one day I'll win a big bet by betting ON us instead of against.
Hahaha..............I hope you weren't blaming me though.
The fact is that McAuley has averaged a goal every 12 games throughout his career and has won me quite a lot over the years. I was regularly getting 50/1 on him for 1st goalscorer when IMO he should have been about 30/1 so my theory is that I'd end up in profit. Because LFC were such strong favourites last night McAuley's price fluctuated between 80/1 - 90/1. I actually thought we'd win last night BUT still figured McAuley was a 40/1 - 50/1 shot so the 90/1 was too good to turn down.
I tried to get another £5 matched before kick off but there were no takers.
Barnet have loaned a very good forward today, I had intended laying York City at the current prices anyway but the signing of Lopez makes the price a veritable bargain and I reckon it could change by tomorrow so have locked in a price...
York City -£262
Draw + £192
Barnet + £255
Basically I've layed York for a couple of hundred at 2.16 ish and stuck a few quid on the outright Barnet win at 3.85
IMO York should be 2.6ish for this game!
York City -£262
Draw + £192
Barnet + £255
Basically I've layed York for a couple of hundred at 2.16 ish and stuck a few quid on the outright Barnet win at 3.85
IMO York should be 2.6ish for this game!
Cheers Livvy. About £350 profit today I think with the bet I placed yesterday on Barnet. It's been a profitable few weeks.
Nice "bonus", I checked my balance yesterday and there was £680 more than I was expecting! I inexplicably forgot that I had done a multiple bet on Betfair on Friday evening (which is something I never do). I was watching Tranmere v Shrews (just for research purposes, I had no bets on the game) and I kept looking at the prices for Wimbledon, Barnet & Burton.
Because the prices of these 3 teams seemed "very wrong" I decided I'd stick a £5 treble on the 3 of them to win.
After the Tranmere game I drank half a litre of Vodka and passed out. I totally forgot about that bet until I checked my balance yesterday....happy days...£2k profit over the last 8 days.
For the record....on this thread I only include wins/losses that I advise of in advance so that £680 is not relevant in the new bank balance of...................+£1725
Because the prices of these 3 teams seemed "very wrong" I decided I'd stick a £5 treble on the 3 of them to win.
After the Tranmere game I drank half a litre of Vodka and passed out. I totally forgot about that bet until I checked my balance yesterday....happy days...£2k profit over the last 8 days.
For the record....on this thread I only include wins/losses that I advise of in advance so that £680 is not relevant in the new bank balance of...................+£1725
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