Betting 2012-13 Weekly bets
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Bank @ £2202
Incredible! Once again the price about Doncaster, winning tomorrow night against Carlisle, completely undervalues how good they are. Carlisle are virtually safe from relegation and have little to play for whereas Doncaster know that a win will put them within touching distance of promotion. Doncaster should be 1.55 for this game but I just backed them at 1.73.
£186 Doncaster to beat Carlisle to win £134*
* This is where my bet on Bournemouth (which I placed on Saturday) to win the league comes in handy. IMO the only team who are good enough to finish ahead of Doncaster are Bournemouth and if Donny fuck up against Carlisle my bet on Bournemouth winning the league should become worth about £100 (which I'd trade to offset my loss on Donny).
Incredible! Once again the price about Doncaster, winning tomorrow night against Carlisle, completely undervalues how good they are. Carlisle are virtually safe from relegation and have little to play for whereas Doncaster know that a win will put them within touching distance of promotion. Doncaster should be 1.55 for this game but I just backed them at 1.73.
£186 Doncaster to beat Carlisle to win £134*
* This is where my bet on Bournemouth (which I placed on Saturday) to win the league comes in handy. IMO the only team who are good enough to finish ahead of Doncaster are Bournemouth and if Donny fuck up against Carlisle my bet on Bournemouth winning the league should become worth about £100 (which I'd trade to offset my loss on Donny).
Hahaha, in typical fashion....as soon as I declare a price to be "wrong" it goes even further the "wrong" way. The price has gone to 1.76 now and I'm loading up at this price because......
a) I can't see Doncaster being above 1.70* by kick off tomorrow, and
b) if they are still the same price I have to courage of my conviction to leave the bet stand.
*If the price dips below 1.65 I may be tempted to sell out of the bet for a guaranteed profit.
Currently
+£252 Doncaster
-£345 Carlisle
-£345 Draw
I have another £164 waiting to be matched at 1.76
a) I can't see Doncaster being above 1.70* by kick off tomorrow, and
b) if they are still the same price I have to courage of my conviction to leave the bet stand.
*If the price dips below 1.65 I may be tempted to sell out of the bet for a guaranteed profit.
Currently
+£252 Doncaster
-£345 Carlisle
-£345 Draw
I have another £164 waiting to be matched at 1.76
A bit more of my stake was nibbled overnight leaving my position...........................
+£507 Doncaster
-£678 Carlisle/Draw
I've no idea where I'm going with this yet; if the price goes back to 1.77-1.78* (or hopefully higher) I'll have no hesitation in adding to the bet....and in the unlikely event the price stays around those levels I will probably leave the bet as is and put my balls on the line.
If the price drops (which IMO it should, I would price Donny @ 1.55) I will have a decision to make, whether or not to lay some of the bet off to improve my odds i.e. if the price went to 1.55 I could lay some of the bet off and get £200 at Evens the Doncaster win instead of the current position of £678 at 8/11.
Obvioulsy improving my odds will not affect the outcome of the bet but it's prudent gambling and a major part of making a long term profit.
*The current price is 1.74
+£507 Doncaster
-£678 Carlisle/Draw
I've no idea where I'm going with this yet; if the price goes back to 1.77-1.78* (or hopefully higher) I'll have no hesitation in adding to the bet....and in the unlikely event the price stays around those levels I will probably leave the bet as is and put my balls on the line.
If the price drops (which IMO it should, I would price Donny @ 1.55) I will have a decision to make, whether or not to lay some of the bet off to improve my odds i.e. if the price went to 1.55 I could lay some of the bet off and get £200 at Evens the Doncaster win instead of the current position of £678 at 8/11.
Obvioulsy improving my odds will not affect the outcome of the bet but it's prudent gambling and a major part of making a long term profit.
*The current price is 1.74
The price has finally dropped quite a bit and I managed to lay a few quid at 1.67 so my position is.......
+478 Donny
-£633 Carlisle/Draw
The price could fluctuate wildly this afternoon and I may miss something if I'm not watching it all the time so; I've place £100 lay a 1.66 and £100 back at 1.75 - it will be interesting to see which of these bets will go first.
+478 Donny
-£633 Carlisle/Draw
The price could fluctuate wildly this afternoon and I may miss something if I'm not watching it all the time so; I've place £100 lay a 1.66 and £100 back at 1.75 - it will be interesting to see which of these bets will go first.
The price has been quite settled all afternoon although I did shift £100 I placed at 1.67, so my current position is.......
£411 Donny
-£533 Carlisle/Draw
I still have £100 lay at 1.66 in place waiting and a back of £100 @ 1.75
The current price is 1.68-1.69
£411 Donny
-£533 Carlisle/Draw
I still have £100 lay at 1.66 in place waiting and a back of £100 @ 1.75
The current price is 1.68-1.69
While I was out walking my dog I had another £100 matched at 1.66 so my position is...........
+£345 Donny
-£433 Carlisle/Draw
Awaiting the team news now before deciding whether or not to keep all this bet in place. My avarage price is now 1.80 (4/5) which I'm very happy with.
+£345 Donny
-£433 Carlisle/Draw
Awaiting the team news now before deciding whether or not to keep all this bet in place. My avarage price is now 1.80 (4/5) which I'm very happy with.
£12 Barnsley to win at Cardiff to win £59
£32 lay of Preston beating Oldham to win £26
Hume still on the bench for Doncaster which is very odd. Doncaster should still win comfortably but I've layed another £100 at 1.67 so my FINAL position is.....................
+£278 Doncaster
-£333 Carlisle/Draw
£32 lay of Preston beating Oldham to win £26
Hume still on the bench for Doncaster which is very odd. Doncaster should still win comfortably but I've layed another £100 at 1.67 so my FINAL position is.....................
+£278 Doncaster
-£333 Carlisle/Draw
Cheers mate had to sweat in the end with the unders game.
Unlucky with your bet.
You spotted the value but of course a baffling managerial decision turns the value on it's head.
Nice days work Pesam!
Cheers Leo.
I was a bit disappointed with my betting on Tuesday, I should have lowered my liability to about £100 when I realised Hume wasn't starting BUT I tend to get a bit greedy towards the end of a season as I chase "targets". I'm determined to get this thread in profit to about +£3,000 by the end of the season and "gambled" too much on the Donny v Carlisle game.
Proft now at +£1952
Thanks Pete.
I'd temporarily forgotten about this bet I did 2 weeks ago.....this bet is still outstanding and I'll update the profit/loss in a couple of weeks. I could take about a £40 profit now but I still quite fancy Bournemouth to win it as Doncaster's last match is very tough...away to Brentford.
-£574 Brighton
+£384 Draw
+£384 Peterbro
I have another £400 waiting to be matched at 2.44 - I doubt the price will go that low but it's worth a try.
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