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The race

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keniget said:
I was saying the other day that right now we just have to keep winning (obv) and not allow the other teams any hope. That’s where we’ve fucked it in the past in this kinda position. We had little stumbles, mini poor spells and City / whoever have thought to themselves yeah they can be got. We carry on winning through Jan and the rest will give up.
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CRUSH THEIR SPIRIT!!!!!
 
Frogfish said:
Whilst it's correct we are 'only' 9, 10, 11 (probably) and possibly 17 points ahead of the competition, when some say we can 'easily' be reeled in (haha) there are numerous factors not being considered.

1. Some are assuming that those teams are capable of going on long winning (not drawing) runs. IMO none are. City are dead and buried and with a much weaker team than in previous seasons, Arsenal and Chelsea have been inconsistent to date and the league has numerous strong teams (esp.when they play at home).

2. Some are assuming that we could go on a losing spree, so whilst that is unlikely barring a huge injury crisis (and it's looking like Slot's methods and team are handling this better than in recent years) they need to consider, mathematically, what that would require.

3. It would need an implosion of form on our side and a huge improvement on behalf of our rivals - not withstanding their own injury and form issues.

Mathematically let's say we had some poor results and were to lose 4 and draw 4 in the 2nd half of the season (D3 & L1 to date). We'd finish on 85 points.

Arsenal would need 49 points from here to top us. Or circa W15 D4 L1
Chelsea would need 50 points to go top. W16 D2 L1
City would need 54 points and a massive GD turnaround. So circa. W18 D0 L1
Sorry Forest I don't think you're in the conversation no matter how well you've done up to here.

Whilst nothing is impossible I think OPTAs 90% chance of us winning the league from here is accurate. I can't see us being worse than W12 D4 L4 from here or any of those teams achieving what they would need in that worse case scenario.

And if we are better than 12-4-4 then that percentage moves ever higher to around 95 - 97% and a near impossible scenario for Arsenal and Chelsea of probably having to win almost every game from here to the end of the season.
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The confidence in this message seems correct but yet Jinxy to me 😆
 
peterhague said:
I don't think people really understand how big a 9 point lead is at this stage. It's about as big as it can be without being totally unassailable. For a turnaround that big you need more than a blip, you need a fundamental change in form over half a season. I get that everyone's nervous it'll disintegrate - so am I - but in reality a 90% chance is probably about right.
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You speak facts, mate.
However, we're involved in 4 competitions and there's been so many heartbreaks these past few years many of us feel traumatised still.
 
Modo said:
You speak facts, mate.
However, we're involved in 4 competitions and there's been so many heartbreaks these past few years many of us feel traumatised still.
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The opposition in the FA Cup, timing of the LC semis and getting at least 1 break for auto qualification for the CL eases my fears there. Like I said somewhere else, get the league done and dusted then get ourselves in a position to complete the quad. Don’t be going for records. Go for immortality.
 
MomoWASright said:
The opposition in the FA Cup, timing of the LC semis and getting at least 1 break for auto qualification for the CL eases my fears there. Like I said somewhere else, get the league done and dusted then get ourselves in a position to complete the quad. Don’t be going for records. Go for immortality.
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Agreed this upcoming month looks good for us fixture-wise, but the upcoming months with the rescheduled Everton game, FA cup and CL league games will be demanding.
Also, those fucking international breaks.
 
Arsenal have a full throttle January. Brentford away in a couple of days then Brighton away. Newcastle followed by Man U in the FA cup. Back to the league and Spurs then Villa. A champions league game where they have to win to try and qualify automatically against Zagreb. Then Wolves and follows up with Girona in the CL. First game in feb is City.
 
I really want to write something positive here because thats how i feel. The only team thats capable of getting a run together to take advantage of any slip ups we might have, have won 2 in 13, are without their best player and are 14 points behind having played game more. That gap is inly getting bigger.

But you superstitious fuckers have talked me out if saying anything daft.

It's anyone's!!
 
Stevesquash said:
I really want to write something positive here because thats how i feel. The only team thats capable of getting a run together to take advantage of any slip ups we might have, have won 2 in 13, are without their best player and are 14 points behind having played game more. That gap is inly getting bigger.

But you superstitious fuckers have talked me out if saying anything daft.

It's anyone's!!
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Arsenal are capable too.
 
It is very handy timing for Newcastle to come into form. They will give Arsenal two hard games in the EFL semis. Ideally knocking them out and crushing some hope of a trophy (although obviously it would be ideal to get to the final against Arsenal and crush their spirit first hand).

Arsenal next 6 fixtures (in the next 18 days):

- Brentford (A)
- Brighton (A)
- Newcastle (H) - EFL Semi
- United (H) - FA Cup
- Spurs (H)
- Villa (H)

If they come out of those 4 PL games with 10+ points then they deserve to be considered a contender, but hopefully it is just too much and they overcommit to the cups to minimise noise around lack of silverware. The FA Cup would be a great place for Amorim's next victory.
 
Brizzle said:
It is very handy timing for Newcastle to come into form. They will give Arsenal two hard games in the EFL semis. Ideally knocking them out and crushing some hope of a trophy (although obviously it would be ideal to get to the final against Arsenal and crush their spirit first hand).

Arsenal next 6 fixtures (in the next 18 days):

- Brentford (A)
- Brighton (A)
- Newcastle (H) - EFL Semi
- United (H) - FA Cup
- Spurs (H)
- Villa (H)

If they come out of those 4 PL games with 10+ points then they deserve to be considered a contender, but hopefully it is just too much and they overcommit to the cups to minimise noise around lack of silverware. The FA Cup would be a great place for Amorim's next victory.
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That’s a brutal run of a game every 3 days even with rotation in the cups. As you say Arteta will be desperate for a tropht and would know that his best chance is a cup now.
Hopefully they go out of both cups and drop 4-6 pts in the league.
 
Brizzle said:
It is very handy timing for Newcastle to come into form. They will give Arsenal two hard games in the EFL semis. Ideally knocking them out and crushing some hope of a trophy (although obviously it would be ideal to get to the final against Arsenal and crush their spirit first hand).

Arsenal next 6 fixtures (in the next 18 days):

- Brentford (A)
- Brighton (A)
- Newcastle (H) - EFL Semi
- United (H) - FA Cup
- Spurs (H)
- Villa (H)

If they come out of those 4 PL games with 10+ points then they deserve to be considered a contender, but hopefully it is just too much and they overcommit to the cups to minimise noise around lack of silverware. The FA Cup would be a great place for Amorim's next victory.
Click to expand...
They can't afford for it to be only 10 points. When you are chasing you have to win every game. They need 12 out of 12 otherwise its over. We already have a cushion, they can't afford to give us an even bigger cushion.
 
Brentford getting a result at home to Arsenal would be lovely, but I’m not expecting much from them..
 
How much will it affect the title run in if Trent agrees a move to a summer move to Real in January?
No doubt that he will get the wrath of the crowd and you dont want that focus away from the football in a home game.
 
I know I'll sound like a fanny but I want to thank Slot for giving me enough joy in 2024 to make me hopeful about 2025.

Taking over a team in a new country and leading them to the top in his first few months without any major signings is an amazing achievement.
We've been shaky at times while he was implementing his style, but now 4-5 months later (depending on when you start counting) the players have finally adapted to his kind of football and we're seeing the results on the pitch.
I'm feeling good about 2025. Onwards and upwards( if that's even possible)!

🥳
 
Hansern said:
How much will it affect the title run in if Trent agrees a move to a summer move to Real in January?
No doubt that he will get the wrath of the crowd and you dont want that focus away from the football in a home game.
Click to expand...

Everyone thinks he’s gone. I don’t think it changes much, only if he gets stroppy about being subbed or something like that
 
Arsenal's remaining away fixtures:

Brighton & Hove Albion - January 4, 2025

Wolverhampton Wanderers - January 25, 2025

Leicester City - February 15, 2025

Nottingham Forest - February 25, 2025

Manchester United - March 8, 2025

Everton - April 12, 2025

Ipswich Town - April 19, 2025

Liverpool - May 10, 2025

Southampton - May 25, 2025

----------

Only two top half teams. Us and Brighton ( they're 10th atm)
 
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