The race

[Farkmaster]

I think that ignores momentum a bit.

I.e. this team merely needs to do what it just did, and was a Nunez performance away from doing even worse, again.

If it does that and arsenal is just slightly better, then they are on us. From there the story is different every single game.

I want to see us do what got us the lead. If we do that for a half a dozen games it will discourage teams and they'll fall off, especially if they have other cups to distract them.

If we don't, it will get really stressful.

You've decided to extrapolate based on our points so far, when we've already slowed down from our early pace. We need to find a second wind. Like, sure, 4 draws sounds reasonable given how many we've had this season, but we've had 3 in the last month or so. We could easily end up with another 6.

The reason they didn't feel devastating is because of narratives and one of the other teams at the time historically imploding. The narrative was that they were decent results in context. That won't be the narrative if anyone else is closing.

 

[Frogfish]

I think that ignores momentum a bit.

I.e. this team merely needs to do what it just did, and was a Nunez performance away from doing even worse, again.

If it does that and arsenal is just slightly better, then they are on us. From there the story is different every single game.

Sorry but that ignores facts which are if we get 8-4-4 (I'd say that is virtually impossible for this team, we'll get more than that), then Arsenal need 10-4-1. And they'll need to overcome GD too.

If we go W9 D4 L3 then Arsenal need W11-3-1.
If we go W10 D3 L3 then Arsenal need W12-3-0

Momentum means nothing in that context. Every point better than 8-4-4 and it becomes exponentially more difficult for them to overcome us. Games are running out for them.

 

[StevieM]

Not doing a full update yet but :

To reach my forecast of us reaching 87 points we need W10 D4 L2. But let's say we don't do as well and get W8 D4 L4

That would still mean Arsenal needing 34 points so W10 D4 L1 (or a variation of).
City would need 46 points - which they can't get even if they won every match.

And it's likely we'd have a better goal difference so they'd both need an extra point on top. Every game where we match each other (whether W D or L) makes it exponentially more difficult to be caught. Still possible of course but I just don't see this team melting down like we did last season.

More importantly - City’s record without Rodri is consistently bad and he ain’t back and they haven’t replaced him.

No way they win every game between now and end of season.

However - we just need to not worry about them or anyone else - focus on our own games - all of them and keep the momentum going.

 

[Fabio]

Sorry but that ignores facts which are if we get 8-4-4 (I'd say that is virtually impossible for this team, we'll get more than that), then Arsenal need 10-4-1. And they'll need to overcome GD too.

If we go W9 D4 L3 then Arsenal need W11-3-1.
If we go W10 D3 L3 then Arsenal need W12-3-0

Momentum means nothing in that context. Every point better than 8-4-4 and it becomes exponentially more difficult for them to overcome us. Games are running out for them.

I do understand farkys point though; games aren't won in a vacuum. We drop some points and arsenal don't, and saka returns next game, they've got wind in their sails. Momentum can shift

Yes in theory all we need is X wins etc, but in theory we needed similar last season and still fucked it.

Your method can show we're on course to win, but we cant predict an iceberg

 

[MomoWASright]

We just need to look at games in 3 game blocks. What can we do to maximise the points. Each win takes that little bit of belief out of Arsenal.

What could add some pressure on us is Arsenal play before us in more than half of the next 7 games.

 

[Farkmaster]

More importantly - City’s record without Rodri is consistently bad and he ain’t back and they haven’t replaced him.

No way they win every game between now and end of season.

However - we just need to not worry about them or anyone else - focus on our own games - all of them and keep the momentum going.

In the last two months, we've drawn in the league about as much as winning.

I am saying I don't want to keep that momentum going. The only reason that wasn't construed as a collapse is because the others did worse or the same.

 

[Mamma Mia]

Just beat Bournemouth

 

[StevieM]

In the last two months, we've drawn in the league about as much as winning.

I am saying I don't want to keep that momentum going. The only reason that wasn't construed as a collapse is because the others did worse or the same.

2 months, or effectively last 10 games - we’ve won 6 and drawn 4, which is an average of 2.2 points per game and if we maintained that until the end of the season we’d finish on 88 points.

Over the course of a season, that equates to 83/84 points and while on the low side, is a total that has won the league previously.

Arsenal could reach 92 if they won every game

Forest could reach 89 if they won every game - which they won’t.

They both couldn’t do it, because they play each other.

City can’t resch 88 points even if they win every game.

What I’m saying is, our form isn’t bad and we probed to recalibrate away from needing mid 90 end point total to win the league this season - 88 will do it, it’ll likely be closer to 80 points. Again, don’t worry about the past or other teams - I know it’s a cliche, but take each game as it comes and extract the maximum points we can out of it - whether it be 3 or 1.

Ideally we win every game, finish on 101 points while winning the quad and City can shove their records up their hole…. But I’ll take whatever we need to win it.

 

[Modo]

You know the team you support. We always make it hard for ourselves.
The last three cups were won on pens or extra time, so you know that we've got to make it a bit more exciting.

"May 10th. The stage is set. The stakes have never been higher."
"It's a battle for superiority... A battle for legacy..."
"Only 6 points separate the two giants of English football and this game could decide it all."
"Will Liverpool secure the title and reign supreme?"
"Or will Arsenal close the gap and snatch the glory, just like they did in 1991?"
"Who will become the champions of England?"
"Salah vs Saka"
"Van Dijk vs Saliba"
"Tsimikas vs Kiwior"

"Find out LIVE on SKY, May 10th. Liverpool vs Arsenal. The ultimate showdown!"

 

[Frogfish]

I do understand farkys point though; games aren't won in a vacuum. We drop some points and arsenal don't, and saka returns next game, they've got wind in their sails. Momentum can shift

Yes in theory all we need is X wins etc, but in theory we needed similar last season and still fucked it.

Your method can show we're on course to win, but we cant predict an iceberg

Yeah I didn't say it's done and dusted. Just that Arsenal will need to be much better than they have been and that City are out of it.

 

[Frogfish]

In the last two months, we've drawn in the league about as much as winning.

I am saying I don't want to keep that momentum going. The only reason that wasn't construed as a collapse is because the others did worse or the same.

Or the quality of the teams we played or that we played away (we have the best Home record in the PL). Since 23rd December we've Won 5 Drawn 2 (away at 2nd placed Forest and Home to United in their cup final) Context. Arsenal gained 0 points and that is all that mattered TBH.

 

[peterhague]

I said in another thread I think this next month will tell us an awful lot. I think it's our toughest run of fixtures, got Bournemouth, Everton and City away, and Newcastle and Wolves at home. IIRC Arsenal have Forest away and City home, and the rest are easy.

If we're say 7 ahead after that then only a proper collapse would stop us.

 

[Modo]

I said in another thread I think this next month will tell us an awful lot. I think it's our toughest run of fixtures, got Bournemouth, Everton and City away, and Newcastle and Wolves at home. IIRC Arsenal have Forest away and City home, and the rest are easy.

If we're say 7 ahead after that then only a proper collapse would stop us.

If we secure 3 points against Bournemouth, Everton, Wolves, and Man City, it could mentally demoralize the Arsenal players.
12 points and the league is done and dusted, pretty much.

 

[peterhague]

If we secure 3 points against Bournemouth, Everton, Wolves, and Man City, it could mentally demoralize the Arsenal players.
12 points and the league is done and dusted, pretty much.

I don't think we're winning all those but yeah if we do it's over.

 

[Brizzle]

If Arsenal drop any points against City, and we win both Bournemouth & our game in hand then I think we are uncatchable.

Whilst I was in favour of sacking off the Carabao - getting a win there (if we make it through) would add a lot of buoyancy and morale to the squad going into the final throws of the season.

What this team and supporters need is some iconic clips of our players singing and dancing to some bangers that we turn in to our club anthems in the stands.

 

[Frogfish]

I said in another thread I think this next month will tell us an awful lot. I think it's our toughest run of fixtures, got Bournemouth, Everton and City away, and Newcastle and Wolves at home. IIRC Arsenal have Forest away and City home, and the rest are easy.

If we're say 7 ahead after that then only a proper collapse would stop us.

I don't think you can say 'next X games'. Just look at the fixture list as a whole. They've got as tough a run in as we have. If they pick up points somewhere they'll drop them somewhere else.

 

[Woland]

Projecting results doesn't get you very far. I mean we could get beat on Saturday by an in form team playing great football and *shock horror* still win the league by miles. Or we could batter them and still blow it... But the odds are currently stacked in our favour.

 

[Frogfish]

Since I last checked a couple of weeks ago we have strengthened to 1/4.
Arsenal now 5/1 and City come in from 33/1 to 22/1.

OPTA
Following those results, with another game ticked off without losing ground and with Nottingham Forest getting soundly beaten at Bournemouth, it’s leaders Liverpool who benefit with the Opta supercomputer, albeit only by a little bit. They now go on to lift the Premier League title this season in 92.7% of simulations, up from 91.5% last weekend.

Arsenal’s chances have therefore reduced, going from 8.2% last weekend to 7.1% after MD23.

Next weekend promises to be a fascinating one, though. Liverpool travel to the Premier League’s form side Bournemouth, while Arsenal host Manchester City, who moved up to fourth on Saturday with a 3-1 win over Chelsea.

City will be considered by many to be out of the title race, and the supercomputer largely agrees, but they do now go on to win an unlikely fifth title in a row in 0.2% of sims.

The only other teams who finish top in any of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations are Chelsea (0.03%), Newcastle (0.02%) and now Bournemouth (0.02%). Could the Premier League literally have the Cherries on top? Probably not, but one can dream.

 

[Squiggles]

This theads TLDR: it's better if we win football games than not, and we should try and do that.

 

[peterhague]

I don't think you can say 'next X games'. Just look at the fixture list as a whole. They've got as tough a run in as we have. If they pick up points somewhere they'll drop them somewhere else.

That ignores momentum, psychology etc. You don't want them building a head of steam.

And I don't think their games are as tough as ours. Their biggest problem is having to come to Anfield, but obviously that's a bit of a double edged sword for us.

 

[MomoWASright]

That ignores momentum, psychology etc. You don't want them building a head of steam.

And I don't think their games are as tough as ours. Their biggest problem is having to come to Anfield, but obviously that's a bit of a double edged sword for us.

Had we got the Doku karate kick pen I think we would’ve gone on to win the league.

 

[darkstarexodus]

This theads TLDR: it's better if we win football games than not, and we should try and do that.

Revolutionary idea but let's give it a go.

 

[tombrown]

I'm not reading all this thread, but did spot a few people talking about our superior GD, which is utter bollox.

If (and I don't for a second think they will) City made up the 15 point gap on us, that woudl entail them winning a load of games and us losing a load ... hence the GD will turn around massively. To a lesser extent that is also true if Arse make up the 9 points on us.

Anyway, GD will not come into play , when we win it a canter by the end of March

 

[peterhague]

I'm not reading all this thread, but did spot a few people talking about our superior GD, which is utter bollox.

If (and I don't for a second think they will) City made up the 15 point gap on us, that woudl entail them winning a load of games and us losing a load ... hence the GD will turn around massively. To a lesser extent that is also true if Arse make up the 9 points on us.

Anyway, GD will not come into play , when we win it a canter by the end of March

To be ultra pedantic a one point gain in points implies either 0.5 or 0.67 gain in GD, so we still have a few goals lead on Arsenal. It's definitely surmountable, though, so you're not wrong.

 

[Hyena]

Amazing. I feel like this woman just prophesied our Premier League win.


View: https://x.com/CnsprtrlRprt/status/1883948171715612772

 

[Frogfish]

I'm not reading all this thread, but did spot a few people talking about our superior GD, which is utter bollox.

If (and I don't for a second think they will) City made up the 15 point gap on us, that woudl entail them winning a load of games and us losing a load ... hence the GD will turn around massively. To a lesser extent that is also true if Arse make up the 9 points on us.

Anyway, GD will not come into play , when we win it a canter by the end of March

Of course it could. City are -16 goals (-12 points) so it's not a given they would better the GD ( if we lost 5 by 1 goal and they won 4 by 1 goal they are still 7 behind)!
Ditto Arsenal, -6 points and -10 goals : in fact it would be a surprise if they did! We lose 3 by 1 goal and they won 2 by 1 goal they still have another 5 to make up!

 

[Dreambeliever]

Why is it a huge week? We only play in the league once in the next two and a bit weeks.

Ha didn’t look at the dates, just saw that it’s a double in FF for Liverpool and Everton and assume it was 2 games in one week 🤣

 

[Dreambeliever]

Arsenal are absolutely capable of turning into a winning machine like last season, with a title within touching distance.

Saka will be back too.