Summer rebuild 2023

[StevieM]

It's a bit more complicated than that. Firstly, yes we do have a £200m facility. Per the last published accounts (May 2022) £88m was drawn, leaving £112m available.
However, the reality is that football cash flow is very lumpy and the position at the year end doesn't reflect what happens during the year. So, for example, media revenue comes in a few instalments, not evenly through the year. Ticketing income comes substantially up-front (season tickets), commercial revenue comes largely up-front (the major sponsor items will be paid up-front for each season, but merchandise and other lines will accrue across the season) and then transfer instalments (in and out) will generally be July/August and January.
All of that means that the balance drawn down will move significantly up and down throughout the season. So whilst the accounts suggest there is £112m available to draw, if there is (say) a £60m adverse swing from timing of payments at any point in the year, then only £52m of that total is truly available to fund extra spending.
As far as the Annie Road is concerned, there will still be some significant spend over summer to get it done. I suspect we will have asked for our last fixture to be away from home (and a good chance we may be away for the first one or two games next season) to allow the contractors as much time as possible to finish off whatever else they need to do - Anfield will be a frenzy of construction activity this summer and that will incur a chunky cost,
Obviously, against that, we'll only be spending on the stand for a couple of months, as opposed to throughout the year, but that saving in cash out will probably be more than compensated for by reduced revenue (Europa v Champions League). The final factor is that we should see increased revenue from the stand, but probably not the kind of up-tick that we got from the Main Stand since the expansion isn't as significant in capacity terms and there's not as much corporate. So I don't think that for this year the end of that project, combined with the loss in European revenue, will have a huge impact.
Finally, I don't think we necessarily paid for the stand out of the facility (and if we had done, we'd need to "repay" that draw on the debt), I think we paid for it by cutting back on transfer spend (hence our complaints about the squad depth).
So I still think that if we want to go on a major spending spree then we need to raise funds from sales or investment. I'm not convinced the latter is on and given how quickly we pulled out of the Bellingham deal it looks more like a mid-spend summer to me with a reluctance to sell any of our more bankable assets.
And as I said somewhere else the other day, the fact that Klopp was suggesting some delays before we sign perhaps indicates that we may need to make some mid-level sales first so we know how much we have to play with before we embark on a spending spree.

Makes sense.

so in effect if we wanted to splurge, say £150m, we’d need the cash flow to cover the actual payment terms - which I think you previously mentioned are normally 3 instalments over something like 18-24 months (though I’m sure this is negotiable)

From a FFP perspective (hahahahaha, I know, right) we need to have revenue streams to cover whatever period we spread tge cobtracts over ;say we spend £150m to sign 3x£50m players on 5 year contracts - we can depreciate it (sorry terminology might be wrong as I’m not an accountant) at £30m a year over 5 years.

The real kicker will be the likely loss of £30-£60m revenue next year for not being in the CL.

We should be “ok” on a wages budget basis - because we’re losing 4 relatively high earners and if we’re smart we can spread that over 3 players.

Again / I’m trying to understand the way we can bring in 3-4 quality players without necessarily relying on FSG doing something they have shown no real inclination in doing - somehow pumping funds directly into the team for transfers.

We could raise significant funds by selling Robbo, Kelleher & Thiago - likely bring in around £70m - but if we spent big - we’d need to account for a similar amount in future seasons.

It all sort of comes back to a point you made a while back about us needing to be banking about £50m a season in transfer fees, consistently - and not necessarily spending that every season.

(it’ll at least I think that’s what you said).

 

[StevieM]

Here's where I'm at with this summers transfers...

I cannot see Liverpool signing anyone of real note. The players bought in will be cut price players. We will not spend the the money what is needed to be spent on real "Quaility" players. We will look to do it on the cheap, "Unless" some team like Real' or PSG puts in a "Coutinho type bid" for Trent.

So this summer look to us to be getting one or two cut price players

I don’t think we’ll be signing any of the top 5 players in the world in each position - which I think was your definition of World Class.

Hopefulky we can set our sights lower on someone of lesser quality… like an Alisson, Salah or Van Dijk level…

 

[tomasjj]

Thiago should be sold.
With Mac A and Jones playing that role, he can go.

 

[Frogfish]

20m is about right for him, no one in their god damn minds are paying 30m for a #2 with about 10 games.

The transfer market is full of deals made for much much more for relative unknowns. Kelleher isn't an unknown, his quality is proven in the PL so he's the total opposite of a gamble. He's worth every penny of £30m and I hope we get a buy back clause.

 

[LeTallecWiz]

Thiago should be sold.
With Mac A and Jones playing that role, he can go.

Yup, I want Thiago out - move him to Barca for 20 million.
Great player, but just not healthy enough and our midfield needs workers.

 

[Buddha]

Thiago will likely be kept on as cover and to mentor Badgertits through a crucial season (given their special connection and similarities).

 

[Frogfish]

I wonder about JWP. A Southampton fan was on the radio earlier saying that, while he's mustard at dead ball kicks, his general play is very ordinary.

That's like taking Momo's opinion from 6CM on Nunez or any one of a multitude of posters on Salah !

 

[Buddha]

The transfer market is full of deals made for much much more for relative unknowns. Kelleher isn't an unknown, his quality is proven in the PL so he's the total opposite of a gamble. He's worth every penny of £30m and I hope we get a buy back clause.

Tbh, I wouldn’t say he’s had anywhere near enough minutes in the premier league to be ‘proven’ at that level (and Sunday was awful).

 

[StevieM]

Yup, I want Thiago out - move him to Barca for 20 million.
Great player, but just not healthy enough and our midfield needs workers.

Mate - if we get £20m for Thiago, I’d put him on my back and carry him wherever he needs to go myself.

Any more than £10m with us not paying him to “do one” and we’ll have fleeced Barca again.

My guess - if he goes, it’ll likely be about £6-8m.

 

[Frogfish]

Tbh, I wouldn’t say he’s had anywhere near enough minutes in the premier league to be ‘proven’ at that level (and Sunday was awful).

Every keeper in the world has a poor game now and again. And I'd beg to differ on your definition of 'proven'. There's a reason he's so highly rated.

 

[Red Bird]

Here's where I'm at with this summers transfers...

I cannot see Liverpool signing anyone of real note. The players bought in will be cut price players. We will not spend the the money what is needed to be spent on real "Quaility" players. We will look to do it on the cheap, "Unless" some team like Real' or PSG puts in a "Coutinho type bid" for Trent.

So this summer look to us to be getting one or two cut price players

Is quality player a Caicedo of now or Caicedo of 6 months ago?

By the way, you just need to listen to Klopp’s last two press conferences as he references champions league football over and over again. I think this summer will require more ingenuity than simply going for what is everyone is hyping up. We’re going to have to earn our keep.

 

[Beamrider]

Makes sense.

so in effect if we wanted to splurge, say £150m, we’d need the cash flow to cover the actual payment terms - which I think you previously mentioned are normally 3 instalments over something like 18-24 months (though I’m sure this is negotiable)

From a FFP perspective (hahahahaha, I know, right) we need to have revenue streams to cover whatever period we spread tge cobtracts over ;say we spend £150m to sign 3x£50m players on 5 year contracts - we can depreciate it (sorry terminology might be wrong as I’m not an accountant) at £30m a year over 5 years.

The real kicker will be the likely loss of £30-£60m revenue next year for not being in the CL.

We should be “ok” on a wages budget basis - because we’re losing 4 relatively high earners and if we’re smart we can spread that over 3 players.

Again / I’m trying to understand the way we can bring in 3-4 quality players without necessarily relying on FSG doing something they have shown no real inclination in doing - somehow pumping funds directly into the team for transfers.

We could raise significant funds by selling Robbo, Kelleher & Thiago - likely bring in around £70m - but if we spent big - we’d need to account for a similar amount in future seasons.

It all sort of comes back to a point you made a while back about us needing to be banking about £50m a season in transfer fees, consistently - and not necessarily spending that every season.

(it’ll at least I think that’s what you said).

Yep, that's about it.
On wages, there's a good chance some of the players will take a hit on their basic salaries for not being in the CL and bonuses will be lower too, but losing Keita, Ox, Bobby and Milner will have a much bigger impact (although you'd expect some of them to be replaced).
On the sales, bear in mind that the transfer income would be spread over 3 years too, so if we sold for headline fees of £70m, we'd actually get £23.3m cash per year (which would naturally off-set £23.3m of spending on new players).
The profit on sale of the players you mention would probably sort us for FFP as well - I reckon those players are valued around a combined £12m on our books (yes, I do have a sad spreadsheet estimating all this), so profit on sale would be £58m (assuming there are no sell-on clauses).

 

[binomial]

The transfer market is full of deals made for much much more for relative unknowns. Kelleher isn't an unknown, his quality is proven in the PL so he's the total opposite of a gamble. He's worth every penny of £30m and I hope we get a buy back clause.

Not sure if I’m supposed to take this post seriously.

 

[Hansern]

Carvalho has been told he isnt in Klopps plans and will be off this summer. Its starting.

 

[binomial]

Colour me shocked.

 

[Red Bird]

Yep, that's about it.
On wages, there's a good chance some of the players will take a hit on their basic salaries for not being in the CL and bonuses will be lower too, but losing Keita, Ox, Bobby and Milner will have a much bigger impact (although you'd expect some of them to be replaced).
On the sales, bear in mind that the transfer income would be spread over 3 years too, so if we sold for headline fees of £70m, we'd actually get £23.3m cash per year (which would naturally off-set £23.3m of spending on new players).
The profit on sale of the players you mention would probably sort us for FFP as well - I reckon those players are valued around a combined £12m on our books (yes, I do have a sad spreadsheet estimating all this), so profit on sale would be £58m (assuming there are no sell-on clauses).

I did wonder about that as our wage structure seemed to be incentive-laden.

 

[Bradley]

He went stale fast. Shame.

 

[LeTallecWiz]

Carvalho has been told he isnt in Klopps plans and will be off this summer. Its starting.

loan or sale ?

 

[Hansern]

loan or sale ?

Not decided yet. Appaz a big money offer from a CL club and loan offers from PL clubs.

 

[Markeh]

All this money talk has reminded me that we’re supposed to be getting investment no? What happened to that?

 

[LeTallecWiz]

Not decided yet. Appaz a big money offer from a CL club and loan offers from PL clubs.

Interesting ... I honestly wonder who'd make a 'big offer' .... and why on earth we'd get rid after 1 season (permanently, loan is a great idea).

 

[Markeh]

Interesting ... I honestly wonder who'd make a 'big offer' .... and why on earth we'd get rid after 1 season (permanently, loan is a great idea).

Newcastle?

 

[LeTallecWiz]

Newcastle?

I could see Arsenal being interested but yah Newcastle is a good shout ...
I guess if they offer 30+, we should consider it ... but I think it's a big of a mistake if we do ... he's young, and can still be a player for us (esp as in 2 years time, we'll have a new manager ... )

 

[ibromurph]

I hope we're sniffing around Sulemana. Seems to have Mane-like explosiveness about him.

Worth considering if we can get him dirt cheap.

 

[Fabio]

I hope we're sniffing around Sulemana. Seems to have Mane-like explosiveness about him.

Worth considering if we can get him dirt cheap.

Southampton just paid 25m for him. Absolutely will not be cheap. He's also only scored 2 pl goals

 

[tomasjj]

I hope we're sniffing around Sulemana. Seems to have Mane-like explosiveness about him.

Worth considering if we can get him dirt cheap.

There is talent there.
I would love if we got Enciso. Pure talent that kid.

 

[Buddha]

Every keeper in the world has a poor game now and again. And I'd beg to differ on your definition of 'proven'. There's a reason he's so highly rated.

He’s highly rated alright, but surely ‘proven’ would mean he’s evidenced his potential in a number of premier league games against different teams, in different scenarios etc? He simply hasn’t played many minutes in the premier league at all. Yesterday was an excellent opportunity to further build on his promising reputation and he flunked it.

Yes it was one game, but with a lack of other league game time to balance it against, it’ll be difficult to convince other sides to write off performances like that and demand 30m for promise.

 

[KopRed]

Carvalho has been told he isnt in Klopps plans and will be off this summer. Its starting.

You could see it in preseason when he struggled physically against some random journeyman. I have always heard that the championship is a physical league. He did well there but has been pretty hopeless with us.

 

[tomasjj]

This appears to be a wind-up. Please ignore.

A deal for Alexis Mac Allister to Liverpool appears increasingly unlikely. Issues have arisen with agents/representatives fees and image rights. FSG not willing to compromise after pulling out of a deal to sign Jude Bellingham due to similar concerns. Klopp and LFC now looking at other options (@JamesPearceLFC)

 

[binomial]

Signed as a teenager for nothing for limited expectations, showed some nice stuff but ultimately not cut out for life in the Prem quite yet, no big deal..we’ll end up making a small profit from his sale and no one will remember him after that. Nothing more to add.