So who do we want/expect/hope?

[Gary25]

No manager and no idea! Liverpool are going backwards under the Americans

28 May 2012 22:30


By Mark Lawrenson


The owners' time-wasting in the search for Dalglish's replacement means the Reds can finish no better than sixth next season, warns Mark Lawrenson

I know Liverpool’s owners are going about the search for a new manager the American way, but they’ve got it wrong.

I can’t believe they are doing it so publicly. They have basically let everyone know who is on their *short-list and who they want to interview.

I didn’t see West Brom and Aston Villa do that, and leave it to the bookies to compile a short-list of managers for you.

That might be the way they do things in America, but this is England and we do things differently.

They must have had misgivings about Kenny Dalglish for some weeks before they sacked him and yet they didn’t line up a replacement.

I know people will say that’s not the correct way to do things, but that’s football.

I don’t believe any manager who says it’s a bolt from the blue when they are sacked.

They can see it coming. And usually, they also have a fair idea who’s replacing them.

It’s also disrespectful to the managers involved - you only have to look at Brendan Rodgers’ initial reaction when he refused to take part in the owners’ beauty parade.

He cleverly turned the tables on them, effectively saying if they really want him, they can come and speak to him.

Look at Roberto Martinez as well. If he doesn’t get the job and Wigan start the season badly, their fans will think *Liverpool have unsettled him.

While this process goes on, Liverpool are wasting valuable time.

The club are at a *crossroads and I would argue they are even further off finishing in the top four now than they were at the start of last season.

The big five of Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham will all strengthen and it’s going to be hard for Liverpool to catch them up.

If anything, they are going backwards, not forwards.

I look at next season and I think the best they can hope to finish is sixth - don’t forget they’re also in the Europa League and playing Thursday-Sunday affects the dynamic of the team.

Looking longer term, they aren’t going to be able to attract the best players if they are not in the Champions League and they are going to have to either decide to build a new stadium or refurbish Anfield – both of which will cost a lot of money.

There is an opportunity now for Liverpool to go out and get the players they feel they need to improve before the Euros and before their rivals have a chance to snap them up.

But instead we have a situation where there is no-one at the club to sign players.

There’s no manager and Damien Comolli, who handled transfer negotiations, has still not been replaced.

I just get the impression that the Americans are trying to run the club from thousands of miles away.

I know that MD Ian Ayre is still there and he is in charge of the day-to-day running of the club.

I know Ian, and he’s seen all the main people he was used to working with on a daily basis go.

Comolli’s gone, Dalglish has gone and Ian Cotton, who was in charge of the press department for years, has gone.

He must be thinking he could be next.

I think since the day Peter Robinson walked out of Liverpool a decade ago, the club has never been the same.

I know people say things are different today from when Peter ran Liverpool so well, but intelligent people adapt and change.

The feeling I get from the Liverpool supporters I speak to is that they are indifferent, and that’s most unusual.

They just want to see it sorted and a new manager appointed soon so the club can try to move forward.

 

[LeTallecWiz]

Moan as he may, how on EARTH are we "doing it so publicly"? FSG haven't opened their mouths ... It's the twat Whelan and the bookies!

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

I know a journalist you worked for a tabloid, and when he was starting out, he was asked to go into the bookies and place a large bet on someone to be a manager. This brought the odds in on the manager, and gave some "credibility" to the exclusive they were going to print the next day.

I wouldn't read anything into market odds, or markets getting suspended. They're driven by people placing bets on things they largely don't know anything about.

 

[FoxForceFive]

Lawrenson is a bellend.

They haven't let anyone know who's on the shortlist, we only KNOW that Martinez is on it cos Whelan blabbed, otherwise it's all fucking speculation & nothing more.

 

[tombrown]

At last I can relax ....whenever Lawrenson takes a position then you can generally guarantee that the opposite is the case.

 

[Wilko7]

Can anyone recommend a good movie with Bill Murray in it?

Ghostbusters?

 

[gkmacca]

Ayre's blabbing away to journalists 'off the record' all the time. It's not just speculation. They seem to think saying nothing publicly but plenty privately is in some weird way the professional way to do it. With someone of Ayre's level of verbal incoherence and poor judgement, it's not.

 

[irishred]

The Michael Owen of the media. Really, really despise him and his shit jokes. People seem to interpret things to suit their own agendas. If you take your time to appoint a new manager which I thought is the best way in order to make the right decision, this is somehow seen as 'time-wasting'. How the feck is it time-wasting? If you take no time at all, it's viewed as a rushed appointment without considering all the candidates. The publicly thing LTW just covered. I'd rather Kenny got sacked and knew about it first-hand instead of hearing it from some no-mark during a time we were preparing for a crucial match in the FA Cup final, which would've happened had we searched for our manager several weeks before Kenny was eventually relieved of his duties. And for the rest of it he's like captain fucking obvious.

 

[Judge Jules]

Ayre's blabbing away to journalists 'off the record' all the time. It's not just speculation. They seem to think saying nothing publicly but plenty privately is in some weird way the professional way to do it. With someone of Ayre's level of verbal incoherence and poor judgement, it's not.

Good grief. And he's still doing it even after it's become clear that the hacks don't remotely consider themselves bound to play by the "off the record" rules?

 

[FoxForceFive]

Ayre's blabbing away to journalists 'off the record' all the time. It's not just speculation. They seem to think saying nothing publicly but plenty privately is in some weird way the professional way to do it. With someone of Ayre's level of verbal incoherence and poor judgement, it's not.

Yeah, a friend of mine has had dealings with the club & ended up speaking to him, told me he's well meaning but he comes across as a right nobhead.

 

[Molbystwin]

It is tedious and uneccesary but he has a point. We have basically allowed ourselves to stink of decline for too long now and the fact that we seem to be fannying around begging for up and coming managers from such luminaries as Wigan and Swansea while other team go out spending billions....

Its all a bit cack innit...

We should have kept Kenny on and at least tried for a bit more calm progress IMO.

 

[Judge Jules]

The Michael Owen of the media. Really, really despise him and his shit jokes. People seem to interpret things to suit their own agendas. If you take your time to appoint a new manager which I thought is the best way in order to make the right decision, this is somehow seen as 'time-wasting'. How the feck is it time-wasting? If you take no time at all, it's viewed as a rushed appointment without considering all the candidates. The publicly thing LTW just covered. I'd rather Kenny got sacked and knew about it first-hand instead of hearing it from some no-mark during a time we were preparing for a crucial match in the FA Cup final, which would've happened had we searched for our manager several weeks before Kenny was eventually relieved of his duties. And for the rest of it he's like captain fucking obvious.

He's actually right about Peter Robinson and our history since, but overall I couldn't agree more. Fine player, poor coach, even worse as a manager, worst of all as a broadcaster. An all-round embarrassment.

 

[gkmacca]

Yeah, a friend of mine has had dealings with the club & ended up speaking to him, told me he's well meaning but he comes across as a right nobhead.

He's a bit of a Walter Mitty, don't you think? Within a carefully defined business role he's very good indeed, but when he's allowed to go beyond that he's a liability.

 

[livvy145]

Booking up our ideas?
by Gareth Roberts // 25 May 2012 // 30 Comments

MUCH was made of John W Henry’s love of Michael Lewis’s book Moneyball. Billy Beane, its star, took the unfashionable Oakland Athletics baseball team to success against the odds using statistical analysis to tear up the traditional scouting methods and identify undervalued players. His methods transformed one of the poorest teams in baseball into one of the best.

Damien Comolli, the former director of football strategy at Liverpool, worked with Beane, who, in 2002, was approached by Henry to be the general manager of the Boston Red Sox.
Comolli also worked as European scout for Arsenal for seven seasons, uncovering Kolo Toure (£150,000), Emmanuel Eboue (£1m) and Gael Clichy (£250,000) among others for fees well below their future worth. Henry, unsurprisingly, is a big fan of the Arsenal model and wants a greater return for Liverpool’s wage bill which, according to the Financial Times, was the third highest in the league when Comolli was appointed.

That bill not only failed to deliver enough quality in his eyes, but the squad it paid for offered little resale value. At Arsenal, even top performers like Robin Van Persie are reportedly earning as little (in relative terms) as £70,000-a-week. To Henry, too many older players at Anfield were on expensive deals with little prospect of them being sold on for an acceptable price. It’s for this reason that the future of Dirk Kuyt and Maxi Rodriguez remains in doubt – regardless of the set up of the new football management structure. FSG have always planned with Uefa’s Financial Fair Play rules in mind – an aim to restrict excessive spending that will, in theory at least, stop clubs “doing a Chelsea” or these days “doing a Manchester City”.

Henry is also said to have read Soccernomics,a book by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski.

Unlike Moneyball it is specific to football and some of the analytical tools and successful use of data detailed there will undoubtedly now be used at Liverpool. One club that Soccernomics cites as being run in a ‘Moneyball way’ is Lyon.They won their first Ligue One title in 2002, starting a record-breaking streak of seven successful championship wins. In 2009-10 they reached the semi-finals of the Champions League after three previous quarter-final appearances.

In the season just gone, they won the French Cup, after four years without a trophy, but missed out on the Champions League for the first time since 2000 after finishing fourth in the league. Lyon has a reputation for developing promising talent, who would not only achieve greatness in France, but also abroad and internationally. Notable examples include Michael Essien, Florent Malouda, Juninho Pernambucano, Cris, Éric Abidal, Mahamadou Diarra, Patrick Müller, and Karim Benzema. Owner Jean-Michel Aulas rid the club of its debt and transformed it from a second division team into one of the richest in football but he has been criticised by fans for running Lyon like a business.

Soccernomics says of him: “Aulas’s theme is that over time, the more money a club makes, the more matches it will win, and the more matches it wins, the more money it will make. In the short term you can lose a match, but in the long term there is rationality, even to soccer.”

Under Aulas, Lyon have won the Ligue 1 title seven times and have qualified for the Champions League in 12 consecutive seasons What Moneyball, Lyon , Soccernomics (and Henry and FSG) have in common is they separate emotion and sentiment from cold hard facts.

So while we as fans may have been up in arms at the decision to sell Xabi Alonso to Real Madrid for £30million, this approach would rubber-stamp such a move.
Alonso was 27, in his prime, so therefore would never command a higher sell-on fee. Where Rafa Benitez and Liverpool failed on that transfer was in not having an adequate replacement lined up. It is unlikely Alberto Aquilani would have been signed by Henry and co because of his age (26), price (£17m) and his appalling injury record.

Henry has in the past made it clear he does not believe Liverpool has enough quality young players at the club and this summer already there has been talk of an under-23 recruitment policy. More specifically, if Soccernomics is to be believed, that age range is likely to be 20-22. Players in that age bracket are considered old enough to be judged but young enough to be affordable. And if a big fee is paid out for players of that age there is time for them to develop and produce a return on the investment. Younger is considered too much of a gamble as it’s difficult to judge players at that age. Talent is easily frittered away and players that look world beaters at that age can quickly fade into obscurity. Florent Sinama-Pongolle and Anthony Le Tallec anyone?

Whether that totally rules out moves for older players remains to be seen.

Arsene Wenger has always had a policy of offering over-30s no more than a one-year deal but he backtracked on that some time back to sign Sébastien Squillaci on a three-year contract.
Some have suggested we may never see the likes of Gary McAllister, signed aged 35, at Anfield again, but things don’t look quite so cut and dried. McAllister may have been old, but he was signed on a free, and only on a one-year contract. It could be that length of contract for older players, not just their age, is the crucial factor (Craig Bellamy, on a free at 32, signed a two-year contract).

Back in 2010 the priorities were clear when Henry said: “The wage bill is high, it is going to be high next year, and we are not a young team. That is disappointing.”
Nevertheless, according to Soccernomics, the key to Lyon’s success has been long-term stability – in terms of players and staff. So while they have had six managers since 2000 – Jacques Santini, Paul Le Guen, Gerard Houllier, Alain Perrin, Claude Puel and current boss Remi Garde – the president and Bernard Lacombe – who has been technical manager, trainer, manager and now special advisor to the president – have remained. Lacombe is renowned for his eye for a player and it is clear he will remain for as long as Aulas does. Lyon believe in the ‘power of crowds’ – the more minds analysing a situation the better the result. This is why future transfers at Liverpool are likely to involve numerous senior football people coupled with support staff – scouts, data analysts and so on. At Lyon six or seven people are involved in making a decision on transfers. The manager (coach) is almost seen as a temporary role. When he leaves nothing really changes – it’s evolution, not revolution. Recently, they have favoured bringing players through from their academy, and have not made major splashes in the transfer market in the last two windows. But Lyon can still boast a squad full of internationals and the biggest wage bill in France. They move into a new stadium in 2014, the Stade des Lumières

The ‘power of crowds’ approach goes against the grain of the traditional set-up in England but, let’s be honest, the traditional set up hasn’t been that great to Liverpool in the last 20-odd years has it? The club has blown millions on flop signings and has a poor record on recouping transfer fees for outgoing players. It wasn’t supposed to happen on FSG’s watch. It did. And the people responsible – Comolli and Kenny Dalglish – paid the price.

Other traits identified in Soccernomics will ring a few bells with Liverpool fans.

For instance: “A new manager wastes money; don’t let him”.

When Roy Hodgson arrived at Anfield he immediately put the wheels in motion on two shocking deals – Christian Poulsen, a 30-year-old midfielder widely regarded as being past his best, and Paul Konchesky, a 29-year-old average full-back who had found his level at Fulham. In both cases the prime reason for their recruitment seemed to be that Hodgson had worked with them before. Out went £10m for the pair and worryingly they were handed long-term deals – Poulsen three years and Konchesky four years. Fabio Aurelio, a 31-year-old and surely one of the most injury-prone players ever to wear the red shirt, was ludicrously handed a two-year contract.
Henry, watching from afar, must have been cringing.

Meanwhile, out the door went youngsters including Emilano Insua, a 21-year-old twice capped for Argentina, Lauri Dalla Valle, a 19-year-old Finnish striker described by Liverpool’s official site as ‘one of the most promising youngsters at the club’, and Swedish left winger Alexander Kakaniklic, also 19. To let players of that ilk leave for next to nothing in exchange for short-term ‘sticking plaster’ signings like Poulsen and Konchesky seemed to make little sense football or business-wise. It still doesn’t. By common consensus, the same could be said of Andy Carroll, Stewart Downing and Charlie Adam. This emphasises how the manager in the traditional model has too much power in player decisions and the opportunity to waste money or sign the wrong player is left too much to chance.

 

[livvy145]

Another Soccernomics rule is: “Stars of World Cups and European Champions are more often than not overvalued.”

Again, something we know all too well. Senegalese duo El Hadji Diouf and Salif Diao were signed for a combined £14m during the 2002 World Cup. Both flopped, with £10m spitting ‘striker’ Diouf earning the dubious honour of becoming the first number nine in Liverpool history to go a whole season without a goal. To rub salt into the wounds, Diouf was signed at the expense of Nicolas Anelka, who had enjoyed a successful loan spell at Anfield.

The book also suggests certain nationalities are overvalued and clubs need to look beyond the norm to find a bargain. Too often agent recommendations are taken as read and the club fails to put in the spadework itself. If a player is from a ‘fashionable’ country (Spain, France, Holland etc) the club will sign him. That means an increased price a) for the agent’s work b) because other clubs will also have been notified and c) because it is an ‘obvious’ signing. So long-term Liverpool are more likely to be looking for the new Wilson Palacios than buying a Xavi. Palacios was signed by Wigan for £770,000 from Deportivo Olimpia in the Honduras League (via a loan spell at Birmingham) and sold to Spurs for £12m just a year later.

“Centre forwards are overvalued; goalkeepers are undervalued.”
Clearly this was a rule recognised by Rafa Benitez who was happy to sign Pepe Reina, 28, to a six-year deal. Reina, who until last season’s dip in form was rated one of the top keepers in the world, was bought for just £6m aged 23. As for strikers, Robbie Keane – signed for £20m aged 28 – never looked like value for money and so it proved, both for Liverpool and Spurs. It’s the hardest position to sign a player that’s worth his fee. The jury is still out on Carroll, but chances are he’ll never be truly ‘worth’ £35m.

“Gentlemen prefer blondes.”
Soccernomics says one English club noticed its scouts kept recommending blonde players, most likely because they stand out more. A key aspect to Billy Beane’s approach in Moneyball is challenging misconceptions about baseball players. One being that a player ‘doesn’t look like a player’.

These preconceived ideas were proven to have affected the judgement of scouts at the highest level and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that similar judgements are made in football.

Take Peter Crouch for example. How many times have you heard someone say he doesn’t look the part? Plenty said it when he signed for Liverpool – less said it when he finished top goalscorer in the 2006-7 campaign. Again, it’s hard not to think about Carroll. The ‘right’ Carroll that we saw at the end of the campaign, notably in the FA Cup, looked a pretty formidable prospect, but many will always doubt him according to this theory solely on his stature.

“Sell players at the right time”As Beane said: “You’ve always got to be upgrading, or you’re f***ed!”

Managers – clubs – should try to recognise when a player is at the peak of his powers and move him on for good money before the deterioration sets in (or before they leave on a free).
The book also demonstrates that none of this is revolutionary thinking either. It might feel new, but Brian Clough and Peter Taylor applied these methods at Forest while our own Bob Paisley was well known for moving on players once they hit 30. For Paisley then read Wenger now. The Frenchman sold Patrick Vieira to Juventus for £13.5m and Thierry Henry to Barcelona for £16m. Both were aged 29 and neither ever did as well after leaving Arsenal. The same can be said of Emmanuel Petit (who was 29) and Marc Overmars (27) who also joined Barca in a joint deal worth £30m.

It’s no coincidence that Wenger has a master’s degree in economics.

“Buy undervalued players who have personal problems”The thinking here is bringing in talented players who have troubles and helping them tackle them. The book cites Wenger as an example, helping Paul Merson and Tony Adams with their addictions. It makes you wonder again if this is a book on Benitez’s shelf. He bought Jermaine Pennant and Craig Bellamy – both talents, both with baggage. It might seem like a risky approach but get it right and you could have a talent on your hands at the fraction of the cost. Most clubs, according to the book, are all too happy to let players get on with it – even when they have clear problems.

“Help your players settle”
It’s impossible to know how good Liverpool are at this but many clubs will spend millions on a transfer then fail to follow it up by helping their ‘investment’ settle.
Real Madrid spent £22m on Nicolas Anelka then didn’t bother to assign him a locker, introduce him to his team-mates or help him find a house.
In big business when senior executives move between countries they are assigned a ‘relocation consultant’ who sorts out schooling, housing and educates the family he is assigned on cultural rules and so on.

If Liverpool don’t do this already, they will do soon.

All in all, most of the approach appears to be less revolutionary than some would have you believe – much of it is common sense. Perhaps there hasn’t been enough common sense in the traditional model? It’s a long-term model (unless some cash is thrown around in the short-term for a quick boost and to lift player morale) and one that is likely to steady the club and leave it poised to challenge in coming years rather than instantly rising up the league to push for number 19.

If Liverpool can now look forward to some stability after all that has come before then many fans will welcome that. Others will undoubtedly pour scorn on any form of change or reinvention and this remains an ongoing challenge for Henry and co – football supporters and players, by in large, are not patient creatures.

Nevertheless, as it says in Soccernomics: “If most clubs are wasting most of their transfer money, then a club that spends wisely is going to outperform.”
It’s been a while since Liverpool did either.

Thought it was a good read.

 

[livvy145]

You can fuck off if you think I'm Binnying that

 

[Judge Jules]

It is a good read. Thanks for that.

 

[Jürgen4PM]

You lazy sod.

 

[tony]

And where did Lyon finish this season ?

 

[Fabio]

You know, I might accept finishing wherever lyon finished if we won the league for 7 years on the spin

 

[SummerOnions]

Could be wrong but don't they usually announce managers on 1st June?

 

[Vlads Quiff]

It seems increasingly obvious to me that several people chose to accept the media or reject it depending on their own agenda.



regards

 

[Wizardry]

That piece by Lawro was one of the most inept attempts at logic I've ever read.

His declaration that we can now no longer finish any better than 6th made me laugh out loud. What a crock. The best football pundits in the world can't figure out who's going to finish top 6 at the begining of March and here's Lawrenson telling us what's going to happen before we've even reached June.

I know JJ agreed with his point on Robinson but I reckon even that was a bit contrived. Has Liverpool ever had a player turn out to be less accurate and less knowledgeable as a commentator?

Note to Lawrenson; change hands mate.

 

[Squiggles]

The links to Van Gaal and Rodgers are keeping me moderately optimistic. Martinez worries me a lot, as do the rumors that we're meeting him again.

Getting into the top four looks next to impossible now that Roman has re-found his wallet. That's City, Chelsea and United for the top three spots, leaving us to fight it out with Arsenal, Newcastle and Spurs for fourth. Whoever gets it is going to have a very difficult job and he'll have to do brilliantly. Good luck to them.

 

[gkmacca]

That piece by Lawro was one of the most inept attempts at logic I've ever read.

His declaration that we can now no longer finish any better than 6th made me laugh out loud. .

Why? That seems optimistic to me. I doubt they'll finish higher than tenth.

 

[Dahuge]

That Soccernomics was a good read. The scary thing is that most of what was said is common sense and should be getting done already....

With regards to the younsters you truly aren't going to know if they are good enough until you play them, players such as sterling, suso, adorjan should be given a chance to play only then will we truly know. the thing they do have, especially sterling is pace. In the game now pace is such an asset and we seriously lack it.

 

[Piedro]

I think he means Martinez is the favourite based on those odds

Yes that's exactly what I meant, Martinez was 10/11 which is shorter than the 11/8 on Rodgers so Rodgers can't be fav.

Wasn't having a go at you Slim Shadey.

Anyway, Rodgers now 1/2 Fav with most firms.

 

[Piedro]

I'm pretty sure that's bollocks.

11/8 fav means put 11 on and get 8 back.

Martinez is put 11 on and get 10 back. He's still odds on but not the favourite.


Does seem an impossible way to run odds but that's what it says.

Course, I could be making stuff up.

11/8 means you put 8 on, and you win 11 plus your 8 quid stake back.

I know betting odds, I've lost enough in my time!

 

[tombrown]

Odds of x-y mean that for every £1 you put on you get your stake (£1) plus £(x/y) back ... or £((x+y)/y) if you prefer.

SO for the odds quoted a return on each if you staked £1 and it came in would be as follows :

Bet........................Odds ..................... Return
Rodgers................11/8........................ £2.37
Martinez................10/11...................... £1.91
Klopp .....................4/1 ........................ £5.00
Tom Brown ..........999/1 ..................... £1000

So for big money ... back moi

 

[Mystic]

This is great, can we do one on the stock exchange now?