No, it isn't, mainly for the first two reasons you give. I've never been totally convinced that the transfer budget would have be humungous for him to agree to come, not least because I think he'd fancy his chances of getting more out of the existing squad than we're seeing, clear though its weaknesses are. I also think he'd fancy the overall challenge, and it's interesting that the last bookies' odds I saw still made him favourite to come in if Rafa does go.