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115(+15) vs the world

I doubt we will hear anything until the spring. It will all be behind closed doors.

The Athletic in a recent podcast were implying similar i.e. expect the verdict to be announced close to May. The hearings are expected to go on till end current year. The written verdict is expected to run into hundreds of pages which will have to be checked & rechecked by teams of lawyers. It's pretty much guaranteed that the commission verdict will be appealed & the whole thing will be dragged deep into 2025 till we know anything definitive.
 
Purely Anecdotally I have to say my experience is the opposite. Depressingly I've met many City fans on my travels, but it's also that type of transient, 'football appreciator' type fan, who also "likes Arsenal and Chelsea".

City are certainly pretty big across Africa (potentially Yaya Toure connection). There were always many Scandinavians in Manchester with City shirts on when I lived there for a bit, presumably Nords after both Haalands represented them. Additionally, kids growing up worldwide today, with no connection to the UK or parental influence, will surely be far more drawn to City than United. They'll be too young to understand or give a shit about this controversy and the shine of Manchester United is wearing off. I suspect Cities' global reach is disproportionately bigger than their share of the UK fan base, hence the low numbers at parades and memes, but many of their current numbers are legitimate(ish).

Additionally numbers are just rising across the board as growth of the Premier League rises each year, swelling the numbers of all, but mostly the top clubs ever further.
 
Everyone hates us more.
I think more hate Arsenal right now.

I bumped into my former manager yesterday. He’s an old school City fan. He expects to be harshly punished which he says he doesn’t mind because he liked the Macclesfield away days. Anyway, he expects them to struggle and would rather we win the league than those Arsenal cunts.
 
Purely Anecdotally I have to say my experience is the opposite. Depressingly I've met many City fans on my travels, but it's also that type of transient, 'football appreciator' type fan, who also "likes Arsenal and Chelsea".

City are certainly pretty big across Africa (potentially Yaya Toure connection). There were always many Scandinavians in Manchester with City shirts on when I lived there for a bit, presumably Nords after both Haalands represented them. Additionally, kids growing up worldwide today, with no connection to the UK or parental influence, will surely be far more drawn to City than United. They'll be too young to understand or give a shit about this controversy and the shine of Manchester United is wearing off. I suspect Cities' global reach is disproportionately bigger than their share of the UK fan base, hence the low numbers at parades and memes, but many of their current numbers are legitimate(ish).

Additionally numbers are just rising across the board as growth of the Premier League rises each year, swelling the numbers of all, but mostly the top clubs ever further.
Nah that isn't right at all mate. If you want to talk numbers don't look at Scando fans - come on, the population of Shanghai is higher than all four of those countries combined - seriously (about 26m vs ca. 30m for the Shanghai municipality) ! USA fanbase is tiny. You don't even look at Europe or South America at all because most fans support, and spend money on, clubs in their own country.

You look at Asia, how many are buying the TV rights & genuine merchandise sales, with ⅔ of the world's population and hardly a decent league between them. And City aren't even in the race in Asia (Barca, RM, United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Juve, Bayern).
 
It really is a thing with those new fangled non legacy supporters. They support Messi FC but now the pederast producers are pushing this weird Norwegian dude on them, and incredibly, even with his face, the kids like his upbeat numbers.
 
Txiki Begiristain leaving City in the summer. Maybe he knows Guardiola is off, or maybe he doesn't want to be stuck at a relegated club.
 
Rats and sinking ship.

The spin is that he was meant to leave 5 years ago and now is the natural time for him to leave.
 
Just an observation. The PL put out new associated party rules for a vote. Per the BBC, they preceded this with an 11-page letter to City - TLDR, you lads need to STFU. Within 24 hours they’ve written to all the other clubs bitching about how the new rules are unlawful and they’re going to litigate again if they are passed.
I feel like the PL’s attitude must be shifting. It started with “they’re probably up to something but it’s good for the brand”, to “yeah, they’ve cheated but we can’t prove it”, to “we’re going to have to do something because so many other teams are pissed off”, to “we can’t really ignore this stuff in der Spiegel and football leaks”, to “they’re really doing our heads in with all this delaying shit”, to “Christ, will they ever stop whining”, to “I’m sick of these twats now, we really need to nail them”.
It’s the legal and finance equivalent of Cristiano doing those 100 step overs at Graham Stuart. Eventually, he just thought “Fuck it”, kicked him up the arse and took the booking. I thing that’s where the PL are now. Hang the consequences, nail the fuckers. And they’ve only got themselves to blame.
 
APT amendments have been passed just to boil City’s and Villa’s piss.

 
APT amendments have been passed just to boil City’s and Villa’s piss.

Ok this gives me a little hope.
 
APT amendments have been passed just to boil City’s and Villa’s piss.

City have a media army already criticising that decision if you can take the comments about this as a guide.
They ain't going down without a fight
 
Forest because they are fucked, Newcastle because they want to sports wash and Billa because their owners have other business deals with City’s owners.
 
As I understand it, the changes mainly roll back some tweaks that were made to the rules and come in response to the independent hearing on the APT rules. If you remember, City said they had a massive win over the PL. In reality, the panel held that the rules needed changing in three respects:
1. To apply a market-rate interest charge to shareholder loans - the panel held that this was the only ground on which the rules were unlawful and they were at pains to say so.
2. To roll back some updates made to the rules last year.
3. To include a process whereby clubs could access the underlying data on which an APT decision had been made (which would facilitate an appeal against a decision).
The Premier League's statement today says all of those matters are addressed.
It's interesting that Everton voted in favour of the new rules. They had provided evidence to support City in the previous arbitration. The outcome of City's case is that Everton are stuffed on their shareholder loans under point 1. The PL statement says the new rules give them a pass for historic exposures and they will likely restructure out of any future exposure when the takeover goes through. Any existing loans still in place in January 2025 will be subject to the APT rules. But Everton danced with the Devil and he fucked them. Lesson learned. Lots of clubs will be converting their loans into shares in the coming months (expect to see people tweeting about share issues). This may even be what Newcastle did in the last few weeks.
The roll-back of the earlier changes to the rules isn't a biggie, and in truth it was probably fair as the changes gave too much power to the PL in how they managed the process.
I'd be interested to see what the changes are in 3. I'd have thought this would be the most problematic as full disclosure would lead to clubs' sensitive commercial information being available to the shady clubs in the league. They must have found a way of doing this without giving that data away, and that may be the basis of City's continuing objection - that they think they would need to see all the private information. This is kind of what the decision said, but I think the decision was wrong in that respect as it didn't take over-riding commercial concerns into account.
In terms of what it means for the 115 charges, today doesn't really change anything for that case. The judgment on APT underlined that the principle was fine, but there were some issues with how the process was managed. So to the extent the charges under 115 relate to over-priced, related-party deals, then City are still on a sticky wicket.
For City's on-going troubles, it probably isn't that significant either. On the one hand, you could say that it shows a number of clubs opposed to City, but the reality is that if they get shafted on PSR, they would likely still get some sympathy from clubs who've had PSR run-ins with the PL (Everton, Leicester, Forest, Chelsea). All of those clubs voted in favour of these changes so they evidently see it as a separate issue and want to level the playing field with the oil clubs.
So really all it does is help us to know who is planning to bend the APT rules - City, Villa, Forest and Newcastle. That's not really much of a surprise.
 
If I may, a slightly technical post on shareholder loans.
When clubs are struggling financially, it can be a short-term cash issue or something more permanent.
If the owner decides they are going to step in, they have a few basic options:
1. Interest-bearing loan
2. Interest-free loan
3. Share injection
Historically, shareholders have tended towards loans for one simple reason - if it turns out that the cash-flow issue is just short-term then it's much easier to pull their money back out. They often don't bother to charge interest as it can get messy for tax purposes, and it gives wriggle room on FFP / PSR.
But most of the time, they know their money isn't getting repaid.
They still edge towards loans because we all live in hope that we will get our money back.
So in context, if you need to repay a loan, you'll need to satisfy certain terms under your bank agreement and then you just make a repayment.
If you want to return money inject as shares then you will need to pay a dividend. But most clubs don't have any profit and loss reserves out of which to pay the dividend, so you need to do a restructuring of your share capital to create the profits, and even then you might not have enough to repay the full amount. Plus you need to get your bank onside with it all. Legal fees etc.
So realistically, if an owner puts money in as shares (or converts their loan to shares as many will do over the next few months) they are acknowledging that they are highly unlikely to get that money back. The only way they'll ever get repaid is by selling the club.
 
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