Betting Weekend Football Bet
- Thread starter Ryan
- Start date
- Latest activity Latest activity:
Prefix for Betting Threads
- Status
[quote author=ILD link=topic=37606.msg1066992#msg1066992 date=1268216091]
Anyone here going to try kick start their week with Donquib in the first?
[/quote]
No mate, I cant be backing a 4/5 in a 20 horse championship race.
It might shit in, but these are novices so you just dont know how its gonna peform. You need to jump at pace all the way round, and one mistake can fuck you. Its not really been tested in this environment yet, so i'll leave alone thanks.
No bet in the first race for me.
Anyone here going to try kick start their week with Donquib in the first?
[/quote]
No mate, I cant be backing a 4/5 in a 20 horse championship race.
It might shit in, but these are novices so you just dont know how its gonna peform. You need to jump at pace all the way round, and one mistake can fuck you. Its not really been tested in this environment yet, so i'll leave alone thanks.
No bet in the first race for me.
For a variety of reasons the matches I'm looking closely at this weekend are.............
Macclesfield v Bury (contemplating a lay of Bury)
Torquay v Crewe (contemplating a lay of Torquay)
Bristol Rovers v Tranmere (contemplating backing Bristol R)
Carlisle v Colchester (contemplaing laying Colchester, although Ian Harte at CB worries me against 2 big forwards)
Huddersfield v Norwich (contemplating laying Norwich, and current favourite for inclusion in Martingale bet)
Championship - Contemplating laying Forest and/or Sheff Utd but will probably leave this division alone this weekend)
I rarely dabble with the Premier League but I am also considering laying Villa at Stoke and Everton at Birmingham.
Macclesfield v Bury (contemplating a lay of Bury)
Torquay v Crewe (contemplating a lay of Torquay)
Bristol Rovers v Tranmere (contemplating backing Bristol R)
Carlisle v Colchester (contemplaing laying Colchester, although Ian Harte at CB worries me against 2 big forwards)
Huddersfield v Norwich (contemplating laying Norwich, and current favourite for inclusion in Martingale bet)
Championship - Contemplating laying Forest and/or Sheff Utd but will probably leave this division alone this weekend)
I rarely dabble with the Premier League but I am also considering laying Villa at Stoke and Everton at Birmingham.
Quick update on above............ the worst thing about the 6 nations rugby is having to be in the pub by 2pm (although we're usually there long before that) but it means I can't check the actual team line-ups and the odds on Betfair in the final 30 minutes before kick off. I try and check them on my phone but there's always people interrupting and it's difficult to focus and my phone is nowhere close to being as quick as my laptop.
I did check a few teams before kick off and was very pleased to see that Bury's best player (by a country mile) Stephen Dawson was out. Had I been at home and sober I would have walloped a huge lay of Bury but as it was I phoned in a relatively small bet and also backed Bristol Rovers who let me down.
Football / Macclesfield v Bury : Match Odds 13-Mar-10 15:00 13-Mar-10 17:11 155.01
Football / Bristol Rovers v Tranmere : Match Odds Unmanaged 13-Mar-10 15:00 13-Mar-10 17:10 -50.00
So overall profit was £100 but I reckon I could have won a lot more considering 7 of the 9 selections above (in my previous post) prevailed. I can't wait for the rugby to finish next week so I can get back to a more considered approach.
I did check a few teams before kick off and was very pleased to see that Bury's best player (by a country mile) Stephen Dawson was out. Had I been at home and sober I would have walloped a huge lay of Bury but as it was I phoned in a relatively small bet and also backed Bristol Rovers who let me down.
Football / Macclesfield v Bury : Match Odds 13-Mar-10 15:00 13-Mar-10 17:11 155.01
Football / Bristol Rovers v Tranmere : Match Odds Unmanaged 13-Mar-10 15:00 13-Mar-10 17:10 -50.00
So overall profit was £100 but I reckon I could have won a lot more considering 7 of the 9 selections above (in my previous post) prevailed. I can't wait for the rugby to finish next week so I can get back to a more considered approach.
Very little value in the lower leagues tonight so just a very small bet on Carlisle to beat Yeovil.
In my Accumulator classes: Chelsea. Everything else: The Jonas Brothers to die tonight 250000/1.
Really haven't had much of a chance to study any prices/transfers etc this week but I do think (after a brief glance) that Bournemouth are too short a price at Grimsby - they are currently 2.28 and IMO are no better than a 2.45 shot so I have layed accordingly but will lay back (i.e. cancel the bet) if i find out any discouraging team news in the morning.
The reason i have layed before finding out the likely line-ups is because i think the price might drift and I would rather lay this price and cancel that wait and lose the price. If the price changes against me it won't be a significant change.
The reason i have layed before finding out the likely line-ups is because i think the price might drift and I would rather lay this price and cancel that wait and lose the price. If the price changes against me it won't be a significant change.
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=37606.msg1073420#msg1073420 date=1269041762]
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=37606.msg1073240#msg1073240 date=1269021172]
Bohs, Pats, Sporting Fingal treble - 4/1.
[/quote]
Bohs won 4-2, Pats won 3-0 and Sporting won 3-1. Easiest ton I've ever made.
[/quote]
Great stuff Ross, some days this gambling lark can seem so easy.
My main bet is a lay of Bournemouth winning at Grimsby. I've also done a small lay of Norwich winning at Swindon (despite swindon missing a few important players).
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=37606.msg1073240#msg1073240 date=1269021172]
Bohs, Pats, Sporting Fingal treble - 4/1.
[/quote]
Bohs won 4-2, Pats won 3-0 and Sporting won 3-1. Easiest ton I've ever made.
[/quote]
Great stuff Ross, some days this gambling lark can seem so easy.
My main bet is a lay of Bournemouth winning at Grimsby. I've also done a small lay of Norwich winning at Swindon (despite swindon missing a few important players).
Struggled to find anything tonight but have done a small lay of Middlesbro winning tonight at home to Preston.
Had a good win by laying the Rangers win versus Dundee United midweek, the team Rangers fielded was very opposable.
This weekend I will consider laying Northampton at Lincoln, also look at possible lays of Swindon at hartlepool and of Brentford at home to Orient.
I haven't got a strong feeling about any of them however but there is a bit of value in the prices but I wouldn't be surprised if I didn't have a bet on Saturday.
This weekend I will consider laying Northampton at Lincoln, also look at possible lays of Swindon at hartlepool and of Brentford at home to Orient.
I haven't got a strong feeling about any of them however but there is a bit of value in the prices but I wouldn't be surprised if I didn't have a bet on Saturday.
Crazy bet I know but small amount laying Millwall winning at home to bottom team Stockport, no way should Millwall be as short as 1/4.
Layed Northampton winning at Lincoln.
Layed Northampton winning at Lincoln.
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=37606.msg1073420#msg1073420 date=1269041762]
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=37606.msg1073240#msg1073240 date=1269021172]
Bohs, Pats, Sporting Fingal treble - 4/1.
[/quote]
Bohs won 4-2, Pats won 3-0 and Sporting won 3-1. Easiest ton I've ever made.
[/quote]
I used to love betting on (both) Irish Leagues. Ridiculously good odds, and gievn the closer knowledge you could get of the sides and players, getting it right more often than not was a piece of piss. I miss that badly over here. I do a spot of betting on the A-League, but it's unpredictable as fuck.
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=37606.msg1073240#msg1073240 date=1269021172]
Bohs, Pats, Sporting Fingal treble - 4/1.
[/quote]
Bohs won 4-2, Pats won 3-0 and Sporting won 3-1. Easiest ton I've ever made.
[/quote]
I used to love betting on (both) Irish Leagues. Ridiculously good odds, and gievn the closer knowledge you could get of the sides and players, getting it right more often than not was a piece of piss. I miss that badly over here. I do a spot of betting on the A-League, but it's unpredictable as fuck.
Grimsby AGAIN this weekend. I can't believe that they can still be backed (or at least their opponents can be layed) at such attractive odds. Oviously their away form is still didgy but at home over the last 5 or 6 games they have proved a very hard team to beat.
Northampton were completely outplayed their 1-1 draw at lowly Lincoln last week so how they are 2.3 (5/4) to win away to Grimsby i have no idea - they should be about 2.5 (6/4).
Leeds United at odds-on? That has to be joke? They have won 3 out of their last 15 games, they are playing against a team with better players and a team who beat them 3-0 in January. Leeds should be 2.20 (6/5) at best and not 1.9 (10/11).
Northampton were completely outplayed their 1-1 draw at lowly Lincoln last week so how they are 2.3 (5/4) to win away to Grimsby i have no idea - they should be about 2.5 (6/4).
Leeds United at odds-on? That has to be joke? They have won 3 out of their last 15 games, they are playing against a team with better players and a team who beat them 3-0 in January. Leeds should be 2.20 (6/5) at best and not 1.9 (10/11).
Grimsby were unlucky against northampton, they were on top at 1-1 and then had a man sent off which changed the game. I made a decent profit though as my bet against leeds was considerably bigger and as I mentioned Swindon were better in every department. Look out for the name Charlie Austin, he will be in the premier league some time soon.
Grimsby made it up to me by winning at Accrington on Bank Holiday Monday and I also had a decent win on Macclesfield avoiding defeat at bradford. (my martingale bet).
I'm going to keep the decent winning run going (sorry to tempt fate) by laying the Man United win tonight. Robben, Schweinsteigger, Ribery, Olic, Lahm, Panjic and Klose against a Rooney-less United? United should be 2.20 (6/5) to win tonight and not the price I got 1.83 (4/5).
Obviously if I lose this bet the loss will be compounded by the thought of the Scum in the semi-finals but that's a risk I'm gonna have to take.
Grimsby made it up to me by winning at Accrington on Bank Holiday Monday and I also had a decent win on Macclesfield avoiding defeat at bradford. (my martingale bet).
I'm going to keep the decent winning run going (sorry to tempt fate) by laying the Man United win tonight. Robben, Schweinsteigger, Ribery, Olic, Lahm, Panjic and Klose against a Rooney-less United? United should be 2.20 (6/5) to win tonight and not the price I got 1.83 (4/5).
Obviously if I lose this bet the loss will be compounded by the thought of the Scum in the semi-finals but that's a risk I'm gonna have to take.
Mascher & Lucas = no creativity in the centre, Kuyt & Benayoun = no width.
Lay of Liverpool win, can't believe we are 1.63 (4/6) to beat a competent Benfica team. Hope I'm wrong.
Lay of Liverpool win, can't believe we are 1.63 (4/6) to beat a competent Benfica team. Hope I'm wrong.
Tonight I've layed Norwich and Tranmere and also backed Hartlepool and Huddersfield.
[quote author=Niall K link=topic=37606.msg1087526#msg1087526 date=1271191340]
[quote author=Dancing Brave link=topic=37606.msg1087489#msg1087489 date=1271184465]
Tonight I've layed Norwich and Tranmere and also backed Hartlepool and Huddersfield.
[/quote]
Great picking mate. Well done
[/quote]
Cheers Niall, although the huddersfield one was a shade fortunate 2-3 down with 2 minutes to go and they won!
[quote author=Dancing Brave link=topic=37606.msg1087489#msg1087489 date=1271184465]
Tonight I've layed Norwich and Tranmere and also backed Hartlepool and Huddersfield.
[/quote]
Great picking mate. Well done
[/quote]
Cheers Niall, although the huddersfield one was a shade fortunate 2-3 down with 2 minutes to go and they won!
Looking at laying Bury winning at home to Port Vale. Both in with a good chance of play off position, Vale are bringing nearly 3,000 fans which will negate Bury's home advantage as Vale will have about 50% of the crowd.
Importantly, Stephen Dawson, Bury's best midfielder by a mile is doubtful with an ankle injury - if he doesn't start then Vale should preVALE.
Importantly, Stephen Dawson, Bury's best midfielder by a mile is doubtful with an ankle injury - if he doesn't start then Vale should preVALE.
It's difficult enough to pick winners; checking suspensions, injuries, form etc but at this stage of the season you need to add a bit of Freudian psychoanalysis to try and figure out which players can take the pressure involved in promotion/relegation battles and play their normal game and which players can't.
I certainly won't be betting big this weekend because there are always strange results in the last few matches and even the refereeing can become even more erratic than usual.
Two games I'm looking at, both in the 1st division and both games feature relegation haunted teams against promotion chasing teams and in both games I'm looking at betting against the promotion chasers.
Exeter v Charlton - I have seen Charlton a few times this season and have been thoroughly unimpressed, they're a very average outfit and their midfield doesn't gel. Exeter need the points and are a very difficult team to beat - if they had a reliable 20 goal/season striker they would not be in this position. I will lay Charlton providing the team news is as expected and the price of 2.3-2.32ish is available (I've already nicked all of the 2.3 available on Betfair with a view of laying it off if I don't like the team news).
Wycombe v Swindon is a different matter as I do really rate Swindon but really the price of 2.14 (11/10) is far too short considering they're playing against a team who are coming into a bit of form and battling for survival. No surprise that since the hugely experienced and talented Ainsworth has been back fit and the talented young Montrose has been given a start in the midfield Wycombe's form has picked up. Similar to Exeter the lack of a good striker haunts Wycombe but they have enough talent to surprise Swindon. Anything under 2.2 is a decent price.
I certainly won't be betting big this weekend because there are always strange results in the last few matches and even the refereeing can become even more erratic than usual.
Two games I'm looking at, both in the 1st division and both games feature relegation haunted teams against promotion chasing teams and in both games I'm looking at betting against the promotion chasers.
Exeter v Charlton - I have seen Charlton a few times this season and have been thoroughly unimpressed, they're a very average outfit and their midfield doesn't gel. Exeter need the points and are a very difficult team to beat - if they had a reliable 20 goal/season striker they would not be in this position. I will lay Charlton providing the team news is as expected and the price of 2.3-2.32ish is available (I've already nicked all of the 2.3 available on Betfair with a view of laying it off if I don't like the team news).
Wycombe v Swindon is a different matter as I do really rate Swindon but really the price of 2.14 (11/10) is far too short considering they're playing against a team who are coming into a bit of form and battling for survival. No surprise that since the hugely experienced and talented Ainsworth has been back fit and the talented young Montrose has been given a start in the midfield Wycombe's form has picked up. Similar to Exeter the lack of a good striker haunts Wycombe but they have enough talent to surprise Swindon. Anything under 2.2 is a decent price.
- Status
