The race

[MomoWASright]

We need to change our mentality in these high intensity games. Just like scum at home we failed giving ourselves “the right to play”.

We have to either match their intensity causing Klopp chaos or just keep the ball and tire them out.

When we do have the ball we don’t seem to show patterns of play. We ebb and flow rather than try to pull them left, right and centre.

 

[Squiggles]

Yep, Slot tends to favour attacking through the centre, but Everton had that area of the pitch completely blocked off. When we did have possession, we didn’t do much with it—there was always one or two misplaced passes, a poor touch, or a breakdown in play. Slot said earlier this year that tactics don’t matter if you don’t compete for duels, and that rang true again to an extent. But the same applies when the basics go out the window.

Defensively, things were just as off. Oliver gave a load of soft fouls, but there were also plenty of stupid, late, and poorly timed challenges. It felt like Everton harnessed the adrenaline of the fixture, while we just looked clunky. We had two or three extra days of rest compared to them, yet up until the 80th minute, it didn’t show. Even at their most fatigued, they still managed to score with the final kick of the game.

We weren’t awful, but we fluctuated between good, average, and poor within five-minute spells throughout the match. We never established any real platform until the very end, and then… yeah. Ha.

Slot also needs to reflect on how he manages these encounters. I wasn’t convinced by his tactics or in-game decisions in either the United match or this one. The phrase "No plan survives first contact with the enemy" comes to mind. In two high-stakes, emotionally charged fixtures, we’ve looked befuddled and unsure of what to do. There’s definitely work to be done.

 

[Hansern]

Not sure what your point is here Hansern, people seem to be content with diminishing points, like we haven't been here and ultimately suffered for it time and time again. Froggy will be saying the same when we're one point ahead, "I'll take that with 10 games to go". It's a stupid mentality.

I was shot down earlier in the week for saying how crucial this game was, all the usual lot started telling me what the predicted results were and how we were never going to drop points against a shit Everton team, probably the same ones who said we wouldn't drop points against a shit United team, probably the same ones will naively think City are there for the taking too. You lot never learn. Just roll out the stats and expected results on paper, and life's a peach.

Thats not the point at all though. I'm just saying that we'll drop points in the next 14 games and that we will see other games were we will play shit. Its not possible to be perfect all the time.
We've had this game in hand hanging over us for a long time and its just good to get it out of the way. It was a big game and we needed a win, but all in all 1 point gained is 1 more then what we had. We move on.

There isn't an easy fixture left this season. There isn't a stat that will set us up as winners and we can drop points at any time. Same goes for Arsenal.

My point is that when we look past the disappointment from last night we're in a great position with 14 games to go, and thats not stupid to say regardless when we compare our position to the other teams around us after playing the same amount of games. Which we now can do.

Now we move onto Wolves. After last night that will also be a tough game but equally essential to get the 3 points. 1 game at the time.
Just like uncle Kloppo taught us.

 

[Hansern]

We need to change our mentality in these high intensity games. Just like scum at home we failed giving ourselves “the right to play”.

We have to either match their intensity causing Klopp chaos or just keep the ball and tire them out.

When we do have the ball we don’t seem to show patterns of play. We ebb and flow rather than try to pull them left, right and centre.

Yeah, there were a lot of similarities to the Utd games. We let the occasion get to us again which was a bit disappointing.

 

[MomoWASright]

Yeah, there were a lot of similarities to the Utd games. We let the occasion get to us again which was a bit disappointing.

Probably the same at old Trafford too. It’s just that we scored first in that fixture and took the game away from them.

 

[Fabio]

I don't know if overly we let the occasion get to us last night; we just played against a team well drilled defensively, and shown to show a bit of fight. We didn't show any fight (except bradley and jones). I don't think that was us being intimidated, i just think it was "we'll play our usual game" but they didn't let us. It's not like we went filthy, they just kept conning oliver and he bought every single one. We need to adapt to the occasion. and raise our intensity

 

[peterhague]

It was only last week were we probably played our best game of the season.

Generally speaking "form" doesn't relate to a single game.

 

[Holle]

It looked like half the team had caught Trentitis the way they strolled around and shat out of challenges.

 

[Athens]

Let's look on the brightside, you only have to look at the joy and celebrations among everton and utd fans at getting a draw to understand the gulf between the teams.

 

[Hansern]

Generally speaking "form" doesn't relate to a single game.

We had 3 straight wins in the league prior to yesterdays game.

 

[peterhague]

Froggy's 'looking at the facts and not overreacting due to disappointment' logic.

-----

Liverpool can still be caught. History, however, tells us that it is pretty unlikely.

When the teams behind the league leaders have also played 24 games then the biggest deficit overhauled in the Premier League era was five points.

That was achieved just twice - by Manchester United in 2003 and Manchester City six years ago.

The biggest points gap that has been overturned after the leaders had played 24 games is nine points.

That was also achieved twice - Manchester United in 1996 and Arsenal in 1998 - but they had one and two games in hand respectively.

The Opta supercomputer has given Liverpool an 88.3% chance of winning the league, compared to just 11.6% for Arsenal.

What you don't seem to understand is that statistics aren't so relevant in specific cases.

I'm betting that what most of us on here are concerned about isn't so much a total collapse but the very real danger of being drawn into a race at all. The unusual circumstances of this season mean we've got this very tough 3 week run of 5 games where the lead can be reduced very significantly.

If that does happen it's obviously going to put a huge amount of pressure on the team. How will they respond? We've really got no idea.

I bet the stats aren't so kind for teams that let a lead reduce significantly in a short period of time.

 

[Holle]

If the midfield had shown half as much fight in extra-time as after the final whistle we wouldn't have conceded.

 

[peterhague]

We had 3 straight wins in the league prior to yesterdays game.

So what? 3 straight wins isn't title winning form. The fact is our form since the Man City win is much worse than before, amd that covers 11 games, which is a long pattern. It's valid to say that needs to change if we don't want to get into a close title battle.

 

[Fabio]

and the last 5 league games were fucking iffy.

Everton - didn't play well, drew
Bournemouth - didn't play that well, won
Ipswich - can't complain, easy win
Brentford - played well, needed last minute madness to score, win
forest - didn't play well until second half, salvaged a draw

Looking at the results is one thing, but of those 5 games, how many should we be struggling to muster a performance with on paper?

People aren't complaining about the results (though some of them should be better), more the performances in them

 

[Fabio]

We have a quite a few passengers in this squad.

 

[Hansern]

and the last 5 league games were fucking iffy.

Everton - didn't play well, drew
Bournemouth - didn't play that well, won
Ipswich - can't complain, easy win
Brentford - played well, needed last minute madness to score, win
forest - didn't play well until second half, salvaged a draw

Looking at the results is one thing, but of those 5 games, how many should we be struggling to muster a performance with on paper?

People aren't complaining about the results (though some of them should be better), more the performances in them

Bournemouth, Brentford and Forest were in great form and among the best home teams in the league this season.
Won 2 and should have beaten Forest. Nothing to say about these games.

 

[peterhague]

Bournemouth, Brentford and Forest were in great form and among the best home teams in the league this season.
Won 2 and should have beaten Forest. Nothing to say about these games.

I'm wondering if that's getting at the core of the problem. Maybe the form those first 13 games really was as much to do with the kind fixture list as some underlying improvement in the team.

Maybe that's why we were never quite able to push the lead into unassailable territory - because the real gap between the teams was smaller than it looked.

 

[Frogfish]

What you don't seem to understand is that statistics aren't so relevant in specific cases.

I'm betting that what most of us on here are concerned about isn't so much a total collapse but the very real danger of being drawn into a race at all. The unusual circumstances of this season mean we've got this very tough 3 week run of 5 games where the lead can be reduced very significantly.

If that does happen it's obviously going to put a huge amount of pressure on the team. How will they respond? We've really got no idea.

I bet the stats aren't so kind for teams that let a lead reduce significantly in a short period of time.

Of course I understand. However the stats (and OPTA) give us an 88.3% of a chance of winning for a reason. Because statistically a team with a 7 point lead at this stage of the season will win the title 9 times out of 10. No matter how many if buts and maybes we can muster.

Now I'm obviously not saying it's done and dusted, and every time we drop points I'm nervously looking to see what Arsenal are doing, but that doesn't affect the % chance of winning in the slightest. It's just nerves that we worry this may be the 1 out of 10 times it does happen.

Of course there are other factors to be taken into consideration and I have no idea if OPTA has a formula to include the CL, LC and FAC into their calculations. Or injuries, or experience or mentality or the manager.

What is clear is that the fans go off the deep end every time we drop points, yes for a reason as far as LFC is concerned but that said some of those factors are not relevant here : there is no team like City at their peak to contend with, both AFC and ourselves are still in the CL, AFC have a ton of injuries.
To the contrary we have next to zero injuries affecting 1st team selection and Slot's team doesn't play at a breakneck pace, so there is no reason to think we'll run out of stamina and collapse (like last season) any more than Arsenal will, especially since we've actually rotated very well and our strong squad enables us to rotate and substitute more often than Arsenal's does.

Added to which we haven't dropped points to Arsenal over the past 5 games (both W3 D2) so it's not like they are closing in. We could have extended our lead by more last night (and were 30 secs from avoiding all the hand wringing today) but let's not forget we did actually stretch it by a point ! And now we've both played 24 games.

 

[Hansern]

I'm wondering if that's getting at the core of the problem. Maybe the form those first 13 games really was as much to do with the kind fixture list as some underlying improvement in the team.

Maybe that's why we were never quite able to push the lead into unassailable territory - because the real gap between the teams was smaller than it looked.

Yeah, could be. It will be extremely interesting to see what the gap is after we have played the next few games.
Villa and City away will be tough.

 

[Fabio]

tbh i'm dreading the next 2 weeks. it'll really show our credentials.

 

[peterhague]

Of course I understand. However the stats (and OPTA) give us an 88.3% of a chance of winning for a reason. Because statistically a team with a 7 point lead at this stage of the season will win the title 9 times out of 10. No matter how many if buts and maybes we can muster.

Now I'm obviously not saying it's done and dusted, and every time we drop points I'm nervously looking to see what Arsenal are doing, but that doesn't affect the % chance of winning in the slightest. It's just nerves that we worry this may be the 1 out of 10 times it does happen.

Of course there are other factors to be taken into consideration and I have no idea if OPTA has a formula to include the CL, LC and FAC into their calculations. Or injuries, or experience or mentality or the manager.

What is clear is that the fans go off the deep end every time we drop points, yes for a reason as far as LFC is concerned but that said some of those factors are not relevant here : there is no team like City at their peak to contend with, both AFC and ourselves are still in the CL, AFC have a ton of injuries.
To the contrary we have next to zero injuries affecting 1st team selection and Slot's team doesn't play at a breakneck pace, so there is no reason to think we'll run out of stamina and collapse (like last season) any more than Arsenal will, especially since we've actually rotated very well and our strong squad enables us to rotate and substitute more often than Arsenal's does.

Added to which we haven't dropped points to Arsenal over the past 5 games (both W3 D2) so it's not like they are closing in. We could have extended our lead by more last night (and were 30 secs from avoiding all the hand wringing today) but let's not forget we did actually stretch it by a point ! And now we've both played 24 games.

Yes I agree it's very likely we win the league.

I also think it's quite likely that the lead gets reduced to 5 points by the time this run has finished, and reasonably likely that it's down to 3 points.

And if that happens I'll be really nervous. And I bet the OPTA percentages will be way down too. Maybe you don't think this run of fixtures represents some unique circumstance, but I do. I think once it's over general stats will be much more informative.

 

[Brizzle]

We just need to keep winning at home and avoid losing away, that’ll do. It could be a rough two weeks though.

 

[Frogfish]

To the contrary we have next to zero injuries affecting 1st team selection and Slot's team doesn't play at a breakneck pace, so there is no reason to think we'll run out of stamina and collapse (like last season) any more than Arsenal will, especially since we've actually rotated very well and our strong squad enables us to rotate and substitute more often than Arsenal's does.

This got me interested in exactly how many minutes the top players in each squad have actually played.

Arsenal (ave mins for Top 10 exc. GKs) : 2,455.40
Raya : 3180 mins
Saliba : 2895
Gabriel : 2854
Havertz : 2776
Partey : 2659
Timber : 2584
Rice : 2536
Martinelli : 2378
Trossard : 2101
Odegaard : 1943
Saka : 1828

Liverpool (ave mins for Top 10 exc. GKs) : 2,428.30
VvD : 2967
Salah : 2950
Gravenberch : 2815
Mac : 2441
Trent : 2320
Robbo : 2255
Szobo : 2199
Diaz : 2208
Gakpo : 2088
Konate : 2040
Alisson : 1879

So there is nothing at all between the teams in terms of minutes played however we do have a deeper squad to handle fatigue and injuries over the last 14 games.

 

[Hansern]

Yeah, we have 8 home games from the 14 remaining fixtures. Just need to get through the next 2 weeks and hopefully have a decent gap after that.
I really dont want to go into the Arsenal home game with a 3 point or less lead. That will be brutal.

 

[MomoWASright]

This got me interested in exactly how many minutes the top players in each squad have actually played.

Arsenal (ave mins for Top 10 exc. GKs) : 2,455.40
Raya : 3180 mins
Saliba : 2895
Gabriel : 2854
Havertz : 2776
Partey : 2659
Timber : 2584
Rice : 2536
Martinelli : 2378
Trossard : 2101
Odegaard : 1943
Saka : 1828

Liverpool (ave mins for Top 10 exc. GKs) : 2,428.30
VvD : 2967
Salah : 2950
Gravenberch : 2815
Mac : 2441
Trent : 2320
Robbo : 2255
Szobo : 2199
Diaz : 2208
Gakpo : 2088
Konate : 2040
Alisson : 1879

So there is nothing at all between the teams in terms of minutes played however we do have a deeper squad to handle fatigue and injuries over the last 14 games.

Arsenal will find it a struggle to change because of who they have available. Which then puts their starters under greater stress and opens them up to injury.

 

[peterhague]

Yeah, we have 8 home games from the 14 remaining fixtures. Just need to get through the next 2 weeks and hopefully have a decent gap after that.
I really dont want to go into the Arsenal home game with a 3 point or less lead. That will be brutal.

Exactly. When you've had a huge lead all season and you'd more or less got used to the idea of winning it, it's not really much comfort that OPTA still gives us a 67.435% chance of bringing it home.

Hopefully it doesn't come to that. If we win at Villa and City we should canter home nicely.

 

[mark1975]

Exactly. When you've had a huge lead all season and you'd more or less got used to the idea of winning it, it's not really much comfort that OPTA still gives us a 67.435% chance of bringing it home.

Hopefully it doesn't come to that. If we win at Villa and City we should canter home nicely.

The crucial thing is that we pick up points in those two games, because Newcastle at home will be difficult and as said, we don't want to get to the Arsenal game with anything less than a 4 point lead. Saka will be back soon for Arsenal too, so for all the glee at the Havertz and Jesus injuries, they still have quality in attack with Martinelli and Saka both due back for the run in. The big hope is that they will continue to drop points here and there because of their striker shortage. That's the best thing going for us right now, because I agree, our performances have been shaky and by and large we've had the rub of the green with luck. Even last night, we can all bemoan the decisions and the last minute goal, but in reality we could have easily lost. We can't just keep saying that "it's the sign of a great team" because it really isn't when it keeps happening regularly. It's the sign of a lucky team who in another year could easily be short of a few more points.

 

[Farkmaster]

I'm wondering if that's getting at the core of the problem. Maybe the form those first 13 games really was as much to do with the kind fixture list as some underlying improvement in the team.

Maybe that's why we were never quite able to push the lead into unassailable territory - because the real gap between the teams was smaller than it looked.

And a bit of luck. This has been my thought most of the season, especially with regard to defensive improvements. Our habit, for instance, of conceding the first goal, is back, but there are several games in our run where our opposition should have scored first.

 

[peterhague]

And a bit of luck. This has been my thought most of the season, especially with regard to defensive improvements. Our habit, for instance, of conceding the first goal, is back, but there are several games in our run where our opposition should have scored first.

That could well be right but I don't really remember tbh.

The bit of luck that does stick out to me from the early season is the two red cards Arsenal got, especially the one against Brighton when Rice tapped the ball away. They were absolutely cruising to a win that day.

Maybe we're overthinking it a bit and maybe there are equivalent pieces of luck they've had etc, but there's just enough there for me to think maybe they're a bit better than the table suggests, and we're a bit worse...

 

[mark1975]

That could well be right but I don't really remember tbh.

The bit of luck that does stick out to me from the early season is the two red cards Arsenal got, especially the one against Brighton when Rice tapped the ball away. They were absolutely cruising to a win that day.

Maybe we're overthinking it a bit and maybe there are equivalent pieces of luck they've had etc, but there's just enough there for me to think maybe they're a bit better than the table suggests, and we're a bit worse...

It's true to a degree I guess, they've also just suffered injuries to more or less all of their strikers at once, which could have further bearing over the next month. Sometimes you need a bit of luck to win the title though. When we won it at a canter all we got was stick about the Covid bollocks and the behind closed doors stuff, people will be quick to discredit any title or cup win regardless, so it doesn't matter which way we win it, as long as we win it.