I think this may be right. The average conversion rate for a top striker is about 20% so it's not like our attackers are miles behind, they just need a couple more chances. Most people seem to think they should be scoring from 50% 😛
FYI : Haaland's conversion rate is 18.4%
is it? I was only including PL when i did found the stat
I don't overly buy the low block defence against conversion stats. Equally our players are shooting like meffs from range. Our forwards (like other forwards do), sometimes choose the poor option. It's human nature, and is what it is. Ideally we need to be combining big chances missed and conversion rate.
So Salah has missed 14 big chances, Jota 8, Diaz 6, Gakpo 5, Szob 5, Jones 3, Nunez 3. Overall in the league we've missed out on 55 goals apparently. Obviously no one expects every one of these should be a goal, but lets say 20% are converted. Thats 11 goals. But even then, thats potentially harsh.
Based on stats we're underperforming our xG by 5, and overperforming our xGA by just over 1. So in reality our defence is doing better than in should be and our forwards are doing worse. Salah is outperforming his xG by sheer amount of chances he gets and scoring some low quality chances.
xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2024/2025 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.
understat.com
5 goals may not seem like much; but when you think they should have come in games where we battered the opposition and didn't get the 3 points (i.e notts H&A, maybe united at home, or fulham at home); it could have made a huge difference.
I'm not suggesting a clinical 9 fixes every issuer or makes us an 100% invincible side; we just would manage with certain threat easier