Normal service resumed
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Bench Jota.
The weird thing in this season, where many of us aren't quite bothering to take everything in: you hear stuff and just think, 'Eh?' Someone in the presser today said we'd not won away since September. I heard that and just thought, WTF? I tried to think, 'Did that happen? I can't remember being THAT pissed off'. So I looked at the table. We've lost one and drawn four. That's the first time I've paid attention. But all the same, 'not won away since September' certainly SOUNDS bad, but we're top of the table. Have we had masses of home games? It just sounded a strange stat. This season is just going by me in a daze.
Nice to get the best goal difference in the league to look more dominant
Well, you got your desire
I wanted big sam to choke on his afternoon bisto, but suppose today will do
Ahem!
I actually thought of your post when watching the game. The marker is well and truly set. Just don’t fuck up against West Brom now.
Top at Xmas for the third year in a row.
Normal service resumed indeed!
Normal service resumed indeed!
We're like the Westlife of football
Top of the league with 4 pts' lead. Quite unbelievable. 😎
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Should be double that only for stupid VAR decisions
You are not the only one to think that. The title of this thread is "Normal service resumed" - even after the Saturday result - I don't think normal service has been resumed. Putting aside the Vila result - last season we would be well upset with the results we got at Fulham and Brighton, those are games we definitely needed to win and had we done so we would be like 12 points clear at the top and I would not give a shit about the games in hand that the likes of City and United have. Of the three Christmas's now we have been at the top - this is the one where we go into with the lowest marginal lead.
Without VVD, I really don't trust our defense setup, and I can see us giving silly goals away especially if anything happens to Alisson. I know there was some debate about VVD's form before he got injured - but his very presence scares the opposition. Also right now - if we start getting too many draws - I can easily see United/City over-taking us. It was too many draws that lost us the title two seasons ago (I know - City were great blah blah blah), but had we turned just one of those games into a win - we would have won the title - this could happen again. Always remember we are the only team that have not gone onto win the title after leading at Christmas - and we did that not once but fucking twice !!!
In the last two games - both Spurs and Palace had good chances to either to take the lead or get the score level - they were very good chances which for some inexplicable reason they fucked up. I just feel that in our games right now - there are too many moments like that for opposition teams - does not matter if they happen when we are like 4-0 up and there is like 20mins to go, but they are happening when we are just 1-0 up or something. What the Vila game showed - is that we do not react properly when we went 2-0 down to them, sometimes we look like a very vulnerable team against teams that have pace or just come at us like we do against them. It's not comfortable viewing - but hey it's football.
I don't think anyone is really that confident about winning the league. If any team really hits form, including ourselves, then doesn't implode, it seems that'll be enough this year.
If they don't, then it will be tight. Both are more normal than last year. We are doing better than I expected in the circumstances, but I can't wholly dismiss any number of rivals. The man a have a chance, especially if they just fuck off the europa league.
If they don't, then it will be tight. Both are more normal than last year. We are doing better than I expected in the circumstances, but I can't wholly dismiss any number of rivals. The man a have a chance, especially if they just fuck off the europa league.
I can see them doing that - just to focus and try and win the league. It will be interesting this season.
We've got to this stage despite a huge number of injuries and VAR mostly having worked against us (supposedly more than any other team in the league to around about a 4 points difference).
It seems most players will soon be back, giving us more options and a much stronger bench to resort to when required, and hopefully VAR will statistically start to even itself out (if that is even a thing). If we add to the equation the fact that our defence is now more settled with Matip & TAA returning then we should start to ship less goals.
One would also expect both Leicester and United's plethora of penalty decisions to abate and other teams to suffer more injuries than us from now on (again basing these assumptions on nothing but statistics, that tend to lie). I certainly don't expect United to 'give up' on the EL and focus on the league. They are one of the favourites for the EL and it's an automatic CL qualifier as well as another trophy (which Ole desperately needs). That said they've drawn Sociedad, another of the favourites, so may lose anyway.
I've watched their last three games and City have looked a shadow of their former selves, I don't expect them to suddenly start destroying all before them because this team just isn't as good as those over the past few seasons, that said they are still one of the best teams in the PL and a certainty for a Top 3 slot.
It's difficult to say how United will continue, confidence matters and they have their gander up. Their game in hand is away at Burnley. They have some quality attacking players but the defence is dodgy. A Rodgers-type team? Entertaining but not able to cross the void to the very top? Hopefully. Their next 9 matches are going to test their mettle and their title claim : Leicester (A - damn you Vardy, couldn't you wait one more match to get injured), Wolves (H), Villa (H), Liverpool (A), Fulham (A), Sheff Utd (H), Arsenal (A), Southampton (H), Everton (A). They also have away games at Chelsea, City, Villa and Spurs to come as well as the reverse fixture against us.
Chelsea's horrendous record vs. top half teams has them down as flat-track bullies so until that changes (not enough to save them this season) they are not serious contenders in either the PL or CL.
Leicester simply don't have the strength in depth and are going to greatly miss Vardy. This season the top teams are better than when they won the title last when virtually every top team was in transition.
Spurs will continue as they have done up to this point, inconsistent. Able to win one week against a top team and lose the next to another or even a mid-table club.
BTW : Villa could also be part of this conversation, win their two games in hand and they could go 2nd. However it's more likely they'll have a say in the title destination by beating title contenders rather than being in the final mix themselves.
If pressed for a Top 4 right now I'd go :
Liverpool
City
United
Spurs
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Fixtures :
A quick look of the fixture list and I can see City moving up rapidly by the end of January with a whole string of relatively easy matches (Chelsea A and Everton A their toughest). From 6th Feb thru 6th March is potentially an extremely tough spell though (Liverpool A, Spurs H, Arsenal A, West Ham H, United H) and could decide their title challenge. Last 6-7 matches should be wins if they are still challenging.
Spurs' tough and easy games are well spread out. They don't seem to have either a particular smooth or rough ride anywhere.
Chelsea have a very tough time between now and the end of January with 6/7 matches providing very difficult opposition. Mid Feb onwards also sees 6 tough teams in a row. April easy enough but 4 tough matches to finish the season.
Liverpool : our matches based on difficulty are generally well spaced out, though early to mid Feb sees 3 tough matches in a row (City H, Leicester A, Everton H). Thereafter nice spacing again and we really do have a nice balanced fixture schedule, at least until CL interference.
Leicester : Entertain United H next with a few easier games before Saints H, Chelsea H and Everton A to finish off January. Three tough games in February in a row ; Wolves A, Liverpool H and Villa A. Their tougher matches are then well spaced out - until the last three games of the season : United A, Chelsea A and Spurs H.
Man. United : As I posted above, Leicester (A), Wolves (H), Villa (H), Liverpool (A), Fulham (A), Sheff Utd (H), Arsenal (A), Southampton (H), Everton (A) means a relatively difficult run through 6th Feb. March is also a stern test with Chelsea A, City A and West Ham H. Thereafter comes mostly an easier spread until early May with Liverpool H, Villa A and Leicester H, they finish with Wolves A.
A quick look of the fixture list and I can see City moving up rapidly by the end of January with a whole string of relatively easy matches (Chelsea A and Everton A their toughest). From 6th Feb thru 6th March is potentially an extremely tough spell though (Liverpool A, Spurs H, Arsenal A, West Ham H, United H) and could decide their title challenge. Last 6-7 matches should be wins if they are still challenging.
Spurs' tough and easy games are well spread out. They don't seem to have either a particular smooth or rough ride anywhere.
Chelsea have a very tough time between now and the end of January with 6/7 matches providing very difficult opposition. Mid Feb onwards also sees 6 tough teams in a row. April easy enough but 4 tough matches to finish the season.
Liverpool : our matches based on difficulty are generally well spaced out, though early to mid Feb sees 3 tough matches in a row (City H, Leicester A, Everton H). Thereafter nice spacing again and we really do have a nice balanced fixture schedule, at least until CL interference.
Leicester : Entertain United H next with a few easier games before Saints H, Chelsea H and Everton A to finish off January. Three tough games in February in a row ; Wolves A, Liverpool H and Villa A. Their tougher matches are then well spaced out - until the last three games of the season : United A, Chelsea A and Spurs H.
Man. United : As I posted above, Leicester (A), Wolves (H), Villa (H), Liverpool (A), Fulham (A), Sheff Utd (H), Arsenal (A), Southampton (H), Everton (A) means a relatively difficult run through 6th Feb. March is also a stern test with Chelsea A, City A and West Ham H. Thereafter comes mostly an easier spread until early May with Liverpool H, Villa A and Leicester H, they finish with Wolves A.
You mean like West Brom at home type of easy?
Think it's time for an updated repost:
Premier league table - Week 23
00 - 25 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U[/bcolor]. 2nd: Leeds. Difference: 6 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
01 - 24 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U[/bcolor]. 2nd: Sunderland. Difference: 13 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
02 - 25/24(Ars) games played. [bcolor=#ff0000]Leaders: Man U.[/bcolor] 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 1 pts. [bcolor=#ff0000]Champions: Arsenal[/bcolor]
03 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#ff0000]Leaders: Arsenal.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man U. Difference: 5 pts. [bcolor=#ff0000]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
04 - 24 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Arsenal.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man U. Difference: 2 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Arsenal[/bcolor]
05 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Chelsea.[/bcolor] 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 10 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Chelsea[/bcolor]
06 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Chelsea.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man U. Difference: 14 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Chelsea[/bcolor]
07 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U.[/bcolor] 2nd: Chelsea. Difference: 6 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
08 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U.[/bcolor] 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 0 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
09 - 22(Man U)/23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U.[/bcolor] 2nd: Chelsea. Difference: 2 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
10 - 25 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Chelsea.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man U. Difference: 2 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Chelsea[/bcolor]
11 - 24 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U.[/bcolor] 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 5 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
12 - 24 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man C.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man U. Difference: 2 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man C[/bcolor]
13 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man C. Difference: 5 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
14 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man C.[/bcolor] 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 1 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man C[/bcolor]
15 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Chelsea.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man C. Difference: 5 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Chelsea[/bcolor]
16 - 24 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Leicester.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man C. Difference: 3 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Leicester[/bcolor]
17 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Chelsea.[/bcolor] 2nd: Spurs. Difference: 9 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Chelsea[/bcolor]
18 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man C.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man U. Difference: 12 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man C[/bcolor]
19 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#ff0000]Leaders: Liverpool.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man C. Difference: 4 pts. [bcolor=#ff0000]Champions: Man C[/bcolor]
20 - 22(Liverpool)/23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Liverpool.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man C. Difference: 16 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Liverpool😀[/bcolor]
Source: https://www.premierleague.com/tables?co=1&se=8&mw=1-23&ha=-1
So the question I wanted answered was "Can the league winner be determined by the end of January?".
Looking at the last 20 seasons of the premiership; in 17 of those seasons the leader of the league in week 23, which usually is around the end of January, also won the league.
The three seasons it didn't happen the difference in points were 1 point, 5 points and 4 points in week 23 and in one of those seasons Arsenal had a game in hand.
9 games to go this season...
Orginial post: http://www.sixcrazyminutes.com/threads/top-six.95538/page-2#post-1529402
Premier league table - Week 23
00 - 25 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U[/bcolor]. 2nd: Leeds. Difference: 6 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
01 - 24 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U[/bcolor]. 2nd: Sunderland. Difference: 13 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
02 - 25/24(Ars) games played. [bcolor=#ff0000]Leaders: Man U.[/bcolor] 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 1 pts. [bcolor=#ff0000]Champions: Arsenal[/bcolor]
03 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#ff0000]Leaders: Arsenal.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man U. Difference: 5 pts. [bcolor=#ff0000]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
04 - 24 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Arsenal.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man U. Difference: 2 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Arsenal[/bcolor]
05 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Chelsea.[/bcolor] 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 10 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Chelsea[/bcolor]
06 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Chelsea.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man U. Difference: 14 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Chelsea[/bcolor]
07 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U.[/bcolor] 2nd: Chelsea. Difference: 6 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
08 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U.[/bcolor] 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 0 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
09 - 22(Man U)/23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U.[/bcolor] 2nd: Chelsea. Difference: 2 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
10 - 25 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Chelsea.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man U. Difference: 2 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Chelsea[/bcolor]
11 - 24 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U.[/bcolor] 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 5 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
12 - 24 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man C.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man U. Difference: 2 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man C[/bcolor]
13 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man U.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man C. Difference: 5 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man U[/bcolor]
14 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man C.[/bcolor] 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 1 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man C[/bcolor]
15 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Chelsea.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man C. Difference: 5 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Chelsea[/bcolor]
16 - 24 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Leicester.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man C. Difference: 3 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Leicester[/bcolor]
17 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Chelsea.[/bcolor] 2nd: Spurs. Difference: 9 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Chelsea[/bcolor]
18 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Man C.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man U. Difference: 12 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Man C[/bcolor]
19 - 23 games played. [bcolor=#ff0000]Leaders: Liverpool.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man C. Difference: 4 pts. [bcolor=#ff0000]Champions: Man C[/bcolor]
20 - 22(Liverpool)/23 games played. [bcolor=#00ff00]Leaders: Liverpool.[/bcolor] 2nd: Man C. Difference: 16 pts. [bcolor=#00ff00]Champions: Liverpool😀[/bcolor]
Source: https://www.premierleague.com/tables?co=1&se=8&mw=1-23&ha=-1
So the question I wanted answered was "Can the league winner be determined by the end of January?".
Looking at the last 20 seasons of the premiership; in 17 of those seasons the leader of the league in week 23, which usually is around the end of January, also won the league.
The three seasons it didn't happen the difference in points were 1 point, 5 points and 4 points in week 23 and in one of those seasons Arsenal had a game in hand.
9 games to go this season...
Orginial post: http://www.sixcrazyminutes.com/threads/top-six.95538/page-2#post-1529402
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The difference being that they can have four get up from their seats and we're still limited to three. (And they're crap and we're not, of course.)
This is precisely how data scientists predict things. I lie, that's an outdated comment. This is precisely how all but one remaining scientist predicts things.
Hey, I don't come to your Trump thread and dispute your facts.
Obviously I know that it's a simple way of looking at it. I studied engineering, I passed my probability theory course. A lot of factors determine the league winner but to me it's an interesting trend.
The FA factor will reveal itself to you when (1) cavani gets a slap on the wrist, (2) they are awarded var penalties in our fixtures against them, and (3) our equalizing goals are disallowed, and (4) our best players are sent off just ahead of those fixtures so that they're suspended for it.
I don't think your interesting trend takes those factors into account.
I don't think your interesting trend takes those factors into account.
Of course I forgot to factor in conspiracy theories. Next time, man.
The beauty of football eh.
We're top of the league whilst having the worst injuries of the top teams. We've got Keita, Chamberlain and Thiago coming back in and freshen us up. Jota will be back in after the Christmas period.
We just need to keep on pushing ourselves away from the pack and create a disheartening gap similar to last year. Personally I don't see any teams capable of getting near us. City will improve now Agueros back, but whilst their defence has improved, Sterling and KDB aren't anywhere near their best. Spurs are improving, but they haven't got the mentality of Mourinho's sides. They'll continue to be inconsistent despite a world-class front line. Kane and Son will surely get injured at some point, too. Chelsea can't beat the top sides, have signed players without a plan and Frank Lampard in charge. No chance. United? Just no.
Klopp is in a league of his own right now. It doesn't really matter what will be thrown at us, I'm confident we'll be lifting trophies in May.
We just need to keep on pushing ourselves away from the pack and create a disheartening gap similar to last year. Personally I don't see any teams capable of getting near us. City will improve now Agueros back, but whilst their defence has improved, Sterling and KDB aren't anywhere near their best. Spurs are improving, but they haven't got the mentality of Mourinho's sides. They'll continue to be inconsistent despite a world-class front line. Kane and Son will surely get injured at some point, too. Chelsea can't beat the top sides, have signed players without a plan and Frank Lampard in charge. No chance. United? Just no.
Klopp is in a league of his own right now. It doesn't really matter what will be thrown at us, I'm confident we'll be lifting trophies in May.
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