WWIII Return of the Ruskie
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The Russians are really getting pulverized as they are leaving Kherson and trying to cross the Dnipro river eastward - it’s an absolute massacre, not many will make it. It looks like Putin accepted the reality that Kherson and the right-bank enclave are impossible to hold weeks ago, but they dragged on the withdrawal in order not to give Biden a “win” on the eve of the mid-term election - this was indirectly confirmed by several mouthpieces of Russian propaganda channels and directly referenced by Biden himself yesterday.
This delay and the difference between what could have been an orderly withdrawal and what is now a rout has cost or will cost probably thousands of lives of Russian soldiers, but the Kremlin never cared about the human casualties - the geopolitical game is much more important to them. I hope those 20,000 or so Russian soldiers (many of them newly mobilized who have been working in an office or flipping burgers just a week ago) trapped at the river bank will find a way to surrender quickly. This will be a historic military catastrophe for Russia.
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They blew up the bridge, but left around 20,000 behind on the other side!
They're claiming they got everyone out. I get the feeling that the Ukrainian forces preferred to let them slip off rather than press hard and risk heavy casualties themselves.
They are “claiming” many things - as usual it isn’t remotely true. They did get the professional military out for the most part and replaced them with recently mobilized whom they then abandoned and blew the bridge in front of them.
Curious how much military equipment was abandoned - so far the reports I’m seeing say it’s less than during the Kharkiv offensive a few weeks ago, but still a lot. They were using floating bridges and small boats to cross the river; difficult to take tanks and BTR’s with you this way.
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It does seem now that a lot fewer than 20,000 Russians were left behind, I stand corrected. There also some videos emerging of Russians crossing the river on foot via the pontoon bridge yesterday evening even though it seems that bridge was destroyed during the night:
There is still a small chance it could be Ukrainian air defence missle.
That is the best case scenario here. Let's be honest.
Russia's denial is not good if it was Russian.
More than a small chance, I think. These Soviet-era air defense systems are not all that precise; I know the Russians had a few incidents when their own errant missile hit an apartment building in Belgorod and other places. You can understand how during a massive missile attack from Russia with over 100 fired at Ukraine in one day this kind of tragic mistake could happen, unfortunately. I think either Russian missile overshooting or Ukrainian air defence malfunctioning are both equally plausible at this point.
Either way, I think the most pragmatic solution would be providing modern air defense or instituting a NATO-entorced no-fly zone over the westernmost regions of Ukraine that border Poland, Romania and Hungary - this would protect Ukrainian civilians in these regions and also protect NATO territory from the spillover effects of the conflict.
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I believe the narrative is now "it was fired by Ukrainian troops.. at a Russian missle". So it was a malfunction if thats true.
Air defence, yes, but instituting a no-fly zone would carry the same risks as this incident would have carried had it been a deliberate Russian strike on Poland, namely direct NATO-Russia confrontation with all its possible consequences. Sorry but I don't see that benefitting anyone, Ukraine included.
I meant missile defense, of course – it's not like Russian any planes are flying over Lviv at the moment, in fact they don't even dare to fly over Donetsk any more. Most missile launches are happening from deep within Russia from the Kaspiy sea or from Belarus.
I read that yesterday. I'm guessing there was no windows in that building
And 4 different guns.
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