WWIII Return of the Ruskie
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Is it wishful thinking or is the drumbeat actually starting to sound like the poison dwarf in the Kremlin is looking for a way out?
BTW Simonyan's an Armenian name - WTF is an Armenian doing as chief Kremlin mouthpiece?
Yes, she is of Armenian descent, but Armenia has been actually historically pro-Russian. Turkey is their enemy #1 (for obvious reasons) and so they have little choice but to try to ally themselves to Russia and Iran - probably the worst allies you can have.
Thought this was fascinating
Looks like Ukraine is finally getting the first batch of the armoured vehicles in needs to start a counteroffensive in the South. Abrams and Leopard tanks are likely to follow. Basically the Western allies were waiting to see whether there was any chance Putin would decide to scale down his aggression or for someone else within Russia to remove him from power - when it became clear than Putin is entrenched and preparing for a long war of attrition, they decided to give Ukraine the offensive weapons to try to end the war as quickly as possible.
According to intelligence reports in January-February Russia will launch its last desperate grand offensive using around 100,000 to 150,000 newly mobilized soldiers with maximum 2-3 month of training, while also announcing further rounds of mobilization and completely closing its borders. This offensive will be repelled and then in the Spring Ukraine will use their new Western-supplied offensive weapons to retake most of the lost territories. In the summer the surviving Russian soldiers will probably return home with their weapons and start a bloody civil war along ethic lines and for control of the natural resources.
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The problem is the war isn't going to end with some military solution. Reports of a small victory here and a small loss there are just noise. I don't have any answers, i know it's all in Putin's hands and diplomacy seems impossible, but it's either that or nukes that will end the thing.
No matter how much we might want to think otherwise, a military defeat is the only way Russia ends its aggression. Can Russia be defeated in a conventional war - yes, when fighting on foreign soil they absolutely can be defeated and that happened plenty of times before – in fact historically in the last couple of centuries Russia lost most of its wars of aggression, but prevailed in defensive ones.
And no, they will not use nukes - trust Ukrainians on this one, I think we have a better sense than most on their modus operandi. They will doggedly use every last chance they have to attack and will be quite resourceful in using not only military, but also political, economic, and psychological kinds of way to apply pressure, but when they finally realize that tide of the war has turned decisively, they will not go out in a blaze of glory or fight a long hopeless losing battle, they will just kill Putin and try to negotiate a truce. They are practical like that.
It's funny, just today a Russian colonel who is now Russia's most popular military blogger Igor Girkin explicitly said that Putin is on track to die the same kind of death as Gaddafi – this is notable because Girkin generally expresses the view of Russia's military and is protected by them from retaliation from the state for saying what he thinks. And everyone in Russia knows that Putin's biggest recurring nightmare is to die the same way as Gaddafi, so it's likely this is exactly how it will end.
And no, they will not use nukes - trust Ukrainians on this one, I think we have a better sense than most on their modus operandi. They will doggedly use every last chance they have to attack and will be quite resourceful in using not only military, but also political, economic, and psychological kinds of way to apply pressure, but when they finally realize that tide of the war has turned decisively, they will not go out in a blaze of glory or fight a long hopeless losing battle, they will just kill Putin and try to negotiate a truce. They are practical like that.
It's funny, just today a Russian colonel who is now Russia's most popular military blogger Igor Girkin explicitly said that Putin is on track to die the same kind of death as Gaddafi – this is notable because Girkin generally expresses the view of Russia's military and is protected by them from retaliation from the state for saying what he thinks. And everyone in Russia knows that Putin's biggest recurring nightmare is to die the same way as Gaddafi, so it's likely this is exactly how it will end.
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I think it's weird how blase people are about even the tiniest possibility of nuclear war.
Talking about them not using them and instead just killing Putin - maybe I'm just being thick but does Putin himself not get a say in that?
He is the president, after all.
Talking about them not using them and instead just killing Putin - maybe I'm just being thick but does Putin himself not get a say in that?
He is the president, after all.
Putin cannot unilaterally decide to use nukes. And judging by what Girkin is saying, the military would be only too happy to execute him Gaddafi-style if he becomes so weak that he turns to nukes as the last resort.
And this is not blaze - of course even a tiny chance of a nuclear war should be taken very seriously, I understand that. But this threat would only grow the longer Putin is allowed to stay in power - anyone thinking that you can eliminate or lessen that threat by giving endless concessions to Putin and thus keeping him in power longer is gravely mistaken. Russia is not North Korea yet, but in 5-10 more years of Putin’s rule it might well become comparable and then things will become really dangerous for everyone. Deal with him while he’s weak.
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Well I guess it depends on exactly what the process for launching them is.
Is it, for example, impossible that all the parties who'd need to consent would ALL face terrible consequences in the event of a conventional defeat?
I think he and people like him would happily continue the war inside Russia - they are literally the Russian Civil War reenactors, there will be plenty of “internal enemies” to deal with once the empire starts fracturing.
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I’m pretty sure the Americans made it very clear that whoever ends the war and even better kills or turns in Putin will have full amnesty and a very prosperous life thereafter. Judging by how CIA seemed to have the exact Russian battle plans throughout the build-up to the invasion, they have plenty of lines of communication open. The problem is that many in Putin’s inner circle still have hope they will be able to win or at least freeze the conflict somehow - as soon as things turn south all calculations will change.
I don't know man, it seems like playing with fire to me. How many people does it require to launch the things?
What would one of those people expect to happen if only one of them refused consent? Would they be fired? Or arrested as a traitor or something? Could he not just replace them with people who would go along?
Is there any conceivable situation where it's just about the best option for all of the parties? I mean in the situation you're talking about, it's already the best option for Putin. That alone is pretty alarming.
What would one of those people expect to happen if only one of them refused consent? Would they be fired? Or arrested as a traitor or something? Could he not just replace them with people who would go along?
Is there any conceivable situation where it's just about the best option for all of the parties? I mean in the situation you're talking about, it's already the best option for Putin. That alone is pretty alarming.
There comes a point in every man's life when he just has to say "enough's enough" - let's kill all life on earth in a nuclear holocaust.
If you want to run yourself down a rabbit hole of pro-Putin delight for a few hours to see an “alternate” view - ie the best thing that could happen to the west would be a total victory for Putin so as the west could be freed - then here it is.
I found my way there ages ago, thanks to the efforts of 2 well known posters and their views - go back every now and then to see what great stuff he comes up with.
https://thesaker.is/
Thank me later - or probably not once you start digging in.
I found my way there ages ago, thanks to the efforts of 2 well known posters and their views - go back every now and then to see what great stuff he comes up with.
https://thesaker.is/
Thank me later - or probably not once you start digging in.
Zucchini is what they call a courgette. I think the pun still works, don't worry, dude.
It’s a risk, but letting him win and regroup would be a guaranteed disaster - and not just for Ukraine.
And when making those calculations, it’s important to try to understand your enemy’s logic - and by every indication, Putin is paranoid, but not suicidal.
That's kinda all good, but at some point I think the west might have to face up to China and tbh I think the west will lose.
The real hope is the fragmentation of Chinese society and deep distrust of the govt
Uh huh ...
Think it already has, yeah.
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