The race

[peterhague]

That is the emotional fans' perspective. The facts given in the posts above are just that and the mathematical requirements are again indisputable.

Fans are also ignoring the fact we have multiple PL winners in the squad that have been in this race numerous times. This squad is not full of mental midgets. And that's even without considering that the Top 10 players in both squads have played almost exactly the same number fo minutes ... except that we have a full squad and they have numerous injuries to key players.

Then there is the fear factor of the name, Arsenal, just because they were very good last season. It's like before the season started and after 10-15 games some posters here were like "oooh City are capable of going on a 20 game winning run", whilst ignoring the factors influencing their early season form (change and aging of key personnel). Some posters here feel the same about Arsenal - that will go on a long winning run, whilst ignoring their performances & results up to now. They will also drop points in a few games.

Of course it could happen but saying "no amount of chalkboard theories can account for the psychological damage" is ignoring all the precedents of the PL era to imbue this race with the fans' mentality and 'PTSD'. The players aren't the fans.

Even a few hiccups shouldn't derail us : W7 D4 L2 (assuming a home loss to Arsenal - even though I don't see it) would mean Arsenal need W10 D2 L1 (which I also don't see them getting) and a better GD.

I think where the stats are in your favour is that it's just kind of hard to remember that across a long run of winnable games Arsenal will almost certainly drop points SOMEWHERE, even if it's hard to point out where.

Whereas with our fixtures it's easier to point out a few tricky away games that'll do the damage.

But I think you're definitely too dismissive of the psychology/pressure involved. It's really tough holding on to a narrow lead. If our lead suddenly does become narrow, then that's a factor that I don't think the stats really account for.

Back in 2019 pretty much the only games we dropped points in all season were when City were chasing us. As soon as they were back ahead, we won everything, but it was too late to matter.

 

[Frogfish]

I think where the stats are in your favour is that it's just kind of hard to remember that across a long run of winnable games Arsenal will almost certainly drop points SOMEWHERE, even if it's hard to point out where.

Whereas with our fixtures it's easier to point out a few tricky away games that'll do the damage.

But I think you're definitely too dismissive of the psychology/pressure involved. It's really tough holding on to a narrow lead. If our lead suddenly does become narrow, then that's a factor that I don't think the stats really account for.

Back in 2019 pretty much the only games we dropped points in all season were when City were chasing us. As soon as they were back ahead, we won everything, but it was too late to matter.

For me it's not being (too) dismissive. It's just that games are running out for Arsenal and as history has proven 7 points (and maybe GD too) is a very tough hurdle to overcome because nobody (bar City in their prime) is capable of winning those last 13 games on the bounce (certainly not this season and with CL rounds to come too).

As I pointed out above we literally only have to win every other game to force Arsenal to deliver 10 wins, at least, out of the last 13.

 

[peterhague]

For me it's not being (too) dismissive. It's just that games are running out for Arsenal and as history has proven 7 points (and maybe GD too) is a very tough hurdle to overcome because nobody (bar City in their prime) is capable of winning those last 13 games on the bounce (certainly not this season and with CL rounds to come too).

As I pointed out above we literally only have to win every other game to force Arsenal to deliver 10 wins, at least, out of the last 13.

We're going round in circles here. I think the real difference is that some of us just REALLY don't want this to devolve into a traditional close title race, which it will if they close the gap to 3 or 4 points by the end of this run. I know that logically most of us would admit we'd still be decent favourites even in that situation, but it wouldn't feel like it.

It would definitely feel like a crushing blow to me. Maybe you're right and the players wouldn't care and things would just revert to the mean. Maybe. I'm not sure the data exists to prove the point either way.

 

[mark1975]

This is where the players on the peripheral really need to step up - Robbo, Tsimi, Trent, Nunez, Jota, Diaz, Elliott and Endo. They've all had less playing time for one reason or another and have no excuse to feel exhausted or washed out. Everyone else has got us to where we are.

 

[King Binny]

Out of curiosity, I checked out what the final points and lead was

 

[MomoWASright]

Virgil van Dijk has told Liverpool to “buckle up and enjoy the ride” of a Premier League title race as he insisted Arne Slot’s side can handle the rising pressure.

Anfield was beset by nerves on Sunday when Wolves threatened to recover from 2-0 down. Slot admitted Liverpool’s second-half performance was the first time this season his team have played with doubt, and Andy Robertson appealed to the crowd at one point to calm down.

Van Dijk believes tension was understandable after Matheus Cunha reduced the deficit and with Everton’s 98th-minute equaliser in the Merseyside derby still fresh in the mind. But he is adamant the league leaders, who remain seven points clear of Arsenal, have the experience and mentality required for the tests to come.

The captain said of Robertson’s crowd interaction: “Did he say that? I didn’t even know. We are all human beings. I can fully understand that side at times and I think they [the crowd] would love to keep supporting and shouting. If the third goal [a disallowed Mohamed Salah shot] had counted it would have been completely different.

“I said it weeks ago: we just have to buckle up and enjoy the ride. There will be a lot of twists and turns. If you’re not ready for it – and we have been there already – it will be a difficult couple of months for you but I feel like we as a team are ready for it. We will give it everything we’ve got and we will see in 13 games if that is enough. I totally understand anxiety or nervousness can kick in but we need the fans in the best shape of their lives and they need us to be in the best shape of our lives as well. Hopefully by the end of the season we can all enjoy it even more.”

Liverpool travel to Aston Villa on Wednesday, Manchester City on Sunday and host Newcastle the following midweek in what could prove a key period. Van Dijk admits the title favourites must raise their game having struggled against Wolves and Everton.

“Yes we have to up it because you play against teams who can hurt you even more, especially at two away grounds where the teams are very good,” he said. “If you’re not ready for it you don’t deserve anything

 

[localny]

There was mental midgetry v Everton and wolves recently in the form of hoofing way too many balls forward

 

[Frogfish]

There was mental midgetry v Everton and wolves recently in the form of hoofing way too many balls forward

Oh for God's sake. That's your definition is it? Fuck me. The only mental midgetry I'm seeing is being exhibited by certain posters on here.

 

[localny]

Absolutely, Slot wants "control", and this shows panic, and a lack of composure, and it's one of the reasons we gave away that last minute goal last week. And yes panic shows a lack of mental strength.

 

[StevieM]

That is the emotional fans' perspective. The facts given in the posts above are just that and the mathematical requirements are again indisputable.

Fans are also ignoring the fact we have multiple PL winners in the squad that have been in this race numerous times. This squad is not full of mental midgets. And that's even without considering that the Top 10 players in both squads have played almost exactly the same number fo minutes ... except that we have a full squad and they have numerous injuries to key players.

Then there is the fear factor of the name, Arsenal, just because they were very good last season. It's like before the season started and after 10-15 games some posters here were like "oooh City are capable of going on a 20 game winning run", whilst ignoring the factors influencing their early season form (change and aging of key personnel). Some posters here feel the same about Arsenal - that will go on a long winning run, whilst ignoring their performances & results up to now. They will also drop points in a few games.

Of course it could happen but saying "no amount of chalkboard theories can account for the psychological damage" is ignoring all the precedents of the PL era to imbue this race with the fans' mentality and 'PTSD'. The players aren't the fans.

Even a few hiccups shouldn't derail us : W7 D4 L2 (assuming a home loss to Arsenal - even though I don't see it) would mean Arsenal need W10 D2 L1 (which I also don't see them getting) and a better GD.

It’s worth pointing out that Arsenal are only 2 points worse off this season after 25 games than they were last season after 25 games.

So, whatever drama they’ve had, they’re not significantly worse off than last season.

We’re 3 points better off.

So if we have similar runs ins to last season - Arsenal win the league by 2 points.

Not saying that’s what’ll happen - I still think that 82-85 will be the winning points total - but Arsenal can still get there.

At least 8 wins from our remaining games plus a couple of draws should be enough.”, but may take it down to the wire.

 

[jexykrodic]

For feck's sake let's try and control what we do not worry about what others may or may not do.

We have a good team including experienced winners, competent manager and loyal support and a sizeable lead.

Start of the season that this would have been Dreamland instead we're treating it like a burden.

 

[Hansern]

The pressure of a title run throws a spinner in the works of the best predictive spreadsheets.

Yeah, as we could see last season when Arsenal and City went unbeaten for the whole run in and City edging it by winning 9 straight games.

That said, a run like that wont happen this season. Not from Arsenal and not from us.

 

[Hansern]

Absolutely, Slot wants "control", and this shows panic, and a lack of composure, and it's one of the reasons we gave away that last minute goal last week. And yes panic shows a lack of mental strength.

I think wanting control and getting that to transpire to the pitch was always going to be difficult against Wolves.
The late equalizer against Everton was always going to cast a nervous wobble over the players if put under pressure again. But we held on and will be better suited for the run it for it.

 

[Accedalyday]

 

[Frogfish]

That cunt has been following my posts. But a bit unrealistic. As if Arsenal are getting 11 wins from 13 games. I bet it's more like 9 or 10 at the outside. So for those see my posts above !

 

[Farkmaster]

That cunt has been following my posts. But a bit unrealistic. As if Arsenal are getting 11 wins from 13 games. I bet it's more like 9 or 10 at the outside. So for those see my posts above !

Only you could add 3 and 1 in different combinations. We are in your debt.

 

[Irishanfield]

If arsenal with their 13 games, how can we get W10 D3

 

[Dreambeliever]

Highly unlikely either of us go unbeaten.

 

[Dreambeliever]

So in this crucial run of 5 games we have 5 points from 3 so far.

All depends what Arsenal do but ya the lead is looking more and more surmountable for Arsenal.

 

[Farkmaster]

We could be 2 points ahead in the blink of an eye.

It's shit. We need to cobble together some wins, get through this shit, and fix the team with the break.

I don't think we will. We needed to be out of sight.

 

[Dreambeliever]

A couple of fresh faces in Jan could have made a huge difference. We don’t have Mane contributing alongside Salah in this title push.

It’ll be brutal if we suddenly lose the lead then win our last 8-9 games in a row only to lose out by a point.

The home game vs Arsenal is going to be a cup final.

Everyone tells me Arsenal are shit this season and they are close. What happens if they go on a decent run of form.

 

[Farkmaster]

What happens if they go on a decent run of form.

They'll win the league. That's been the case for a while. Our form has been mediocre for a fair while, it's just theirs has too.

We are reliant on them falling off again and letting us off the hook.

The thing that gets me is that their team is much better positioned to win it again if they win it this year. If we win it, there are many many unresolved questions.

 

[King Binny]

View: https://x.com/adjones_journo/status/1892331818386387094

View: https://x.com/PartedBeard/status/1892365205612515808

 

[Holle]

Their run-in is piss weak. They should be favorites now.

 

[MomoWASright]

I wouldn’t describe half of their games as piss weak.

 

[Accedalyday]

At least we won't have the fa cup to tire out the team ... phew

 

[Hansern]

I wouldn’t describe half of their games as piss weak.

I'd say when we have played City and Newcastle that the run ins are quite similar.

 

[Hansern]

So in this crucial run of 5 games we have 5 points from 3 so far.

All depends what Arsenal do but ya the lead is looking more and more surmountable for Arsenal.

Arsenal won't win all their games either. They have no attack. Against the worst side in the league they had to rely on Merino scoring two from the bench and getting the first in the 81st minute. They'll struggle when they play some teams that can actually defend. Just wait and see.

 

[MomoWASright]

I'd say when we have played City and Newcastle that the run ins are quite similar.

Wednesday could be interesting. Us at home to Newcastle and them away at Forest.

 

[Frogfish]

I'd say when we have played City and Newcastle that the run ins are quite similar.

Except Arsenal will still have the toughest game of their season to come.