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The race

I don't want to look too far ahead, but how motivated do you think City are to help Arsenal win the league?
Just as much as I'd be willing for them win if it was a 2 horse title race between City and Everton. Winning it this season means that the Scum won't be the single club with most English league titles is how I'd see it too.
 
Just as much as I'd be willing for them win if it was a 2 horse title race between City and Everton. Winning it this season means that the Scum won't be the single club with most English league titles is how I'd see it too.
Exactly
 
Absolutely no chance.

I posted on here a few days ago that I think their run-in is easier but only (all things being equal) by 2-4 points or so. So we should definitely win the title barring major injuries etc.

But these next 5 games are what will determine whether it's close or not, imo. It's the test: there's a chance they cut the lead right back to 3 or so, and then who knows how nerves etc could affect us. On the other hand, I'd say if we come out of it still 7+ pts ahead, it's as good as over.
Agree completely. We beat Everton and Wolves, that gives us a breathing space that I doubt anybody will eat significantly into...
 
Next 6 games - 2 expected wins, 4 tough games. How many points would you expect?

I'm thinking 14 points. 4 wins, and 2 draws.



  • Everton
    t11.png
    13:30
    t14.png
    Liverpool Goodison Park, Liverpool
Sunday 16 February 2025
  • Liverpool
    t14.png
    08:00
    t39.png
    Wolves Anfield, Liverpool
Wednesday 19 February 2025
  • Aston Villa
    t7.png
    13:30
    t14.png
    Liverpool Villa Park, Birmingham
Sunday 23 February 2025
  • Man City
    t43.png
    10:30
    t14.png
    Liverpool Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Wednesday 26 February 2025
  • Liverpool
    t14.png
    14:15
    t4.png
    Newcastle Anfield, Liverpool
Saturday 8 March 2025
  • Liverpool
    t14.png
    09:00
    t20.png
    Southampton Anfield, Liverpool
 
Next 6 games - 2 expected wins, 4 tough games. How many points would you expect?

I'm thinking 14 points. 4 wins, and 2 draws.



  • Everton
    t11.png
    13:30
    t14.png
    Liverpool Goodison Park, Liverpool
Sunday 16 February 2025
  • Liverpool
    t14.png
    08:00
    t39.png
    Wolves Anfield, Liverpool
Wednesday 19 February 2025
  • Aston Villa
    t7.png
    13:30
    t14.png
    Liverpool Villa Park, Birmingham
Sunday 23 February 2025
  • Man City
    t43.png
    10:30
    t14.png
    Liverpool Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Wednesday 26 February 2025
  • Liverpool
    t14.png
    14:15
    t4.png
    Newcastle Anfield, Liverpool
Saturday 8 March 2025
  • Liverpool
    t14.png
    09:00
    t20.png
    Southampton Anfield, Liverpool
I'm thinking 18 points with a +10 goal difference.
 
Next 6 games - 2 expected wins, 4 tough games. How many points would you expect?

I'm thinking 14 points. 4 wins, and 2 draws.



  • Everton
    t11.png
    13:30
    t14.png
    Liverpool Goodison Park, Liverpool
Sunday 16 February 2025
  • Liverpool
    t14.png
    08:00
    t39.png
    Wolves Anfield, Liverpool
Wednesday 19 February 2025
  • Aston Villa
    t7.png
    13:30
    t14.png
    Liverpool Villa Park, Birmingham
Sunday 23 February 2025
  • Man City
    t43.png
    10:30
    t14.png
    Liverpool Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Wednesday 26 February 2025
  • Liverpool
    t14.png
    14:15
    t4.png
    Newcastle Anfield, Liverpool
Saturday 8 March 2025
  • Liverpool
    t14.png
    09:00
    t20.png
    Southampton Anfield, Liverpool
I'm thinking who fucked with the kick off times? All brekkie & dinner matches

18 points
 
It's pointless predicting really. There's four games in there where we could definitely drop points, the hardest being arguably Villa away, though I think City will turn up too, because that's all they have to play for at the minute (that and a CL place that's slipping from their grasp).

The biggest one is Everton. We create that 9pt gap and it's massive then going into the other games. If we're reduced to just 6pts the pressure is on and I reckon we will crumble.
 
Looking at Arsenals next 6 PFL fixtures

Leicester Away 15th Feb
West Ham home 22nd Feb
Forest Away 26th Feb
Man U Away 9th March
Chelsea Home 16 March


Leicester/West Ham you'd definitely expect them to win.

Forest, United, Chelsea might be more of a challenge though. Hopefully a few points dropped there
 
It's pointless predicting really. There's four games in there where we could definitely drop points, the hardest being arguably Villa away, though I think City will turn up too, because that's all they have to play for at the minute (that and a CL place that's slipping from their grasp).

The biggest one is Everton. We create that 9pt gap and it's massive then going into the other games. If we're reduced to just 6pts the pressure is on and I reckon we will crumble.
Que? Why?! That is Dreamy level stuff.

Some of their games are : Away at Forest, United, Everton and Anfield and Home games to Chelsea, Fulham, Brentford, Bournemouth and Newcastle.
They'll drop points too - and in the meantime the games keep ticking away. It's a lot for us to both drop 9 points (effectively) to level up the games/points at the top and then also drop as many points, as they will, in the other 11 games.

This is a Slot team not a Klopp team and the far more measured football and lack of injuries (🙏) doesn't indicate any lack of mental resilience nor indeed have we seen any semblance of the much trumpeted 'poor spell' everyone keeps thinking we must go through.

The CL is still there for both of us (and they should at least make the CL ¼ finals with their draw) but the FAC has gone and we (in effect) will only play one more match than them (LC final) which could be another confidence booster.

I've posted this a few times but to overcome that points difference :

Their home record so far this season is the best in the PL (ours 2nd best) but still only W8 D4 L0 whilst they have the 3rd best away record (we have the best) with W6 D4 L2 so does anything there suggest they can now go on a long winning run?

If we go W8 D4 L3 (only ca. 50% of our remaining matches) then Arsenal need to win a minimum of 10 matches : e.g W10-4-0 and a better GD.

If we go W9 D3 L3 then Arsenal need W12-0-2 or W11 D3 L0 and a better GD

If we go W9 D4 L2 then Arsenal need W12-1-1 and a better GD.

If we go W9 D5 L1 then Arsenal need at least W12-2-0 and a better GD

For the record (with extra pressure from the CL and cups) I can see us going something like W10 D3 L2 (assuming a home loss to Arsenal - even though I don't see it) which would mean Arsenal need W13 D0 L1 and a better GD.

FWIW we are 1/4 and Arsenal 7/2.
 
I just do, maybe it's a natural defensive thing from me to avoid disappointment, but we've seen more false dawns than actual titles in most of my lifetime, at least since I hit my teens anyway! Of course, the way we've played this season indicates that we won't falter, but there are so many variables involved and improving teams, that 6pts would be such a small margin to maintain (and improve on) over the course of 15 games.

The biggest factor for us is keeping Konate fit, especially if Gomez is now set for another spell out. If we lose Konate, which is a high probability, then we can get by, but I think we're also in danger of dropping points more. Of course, we can argue Arsenal will drop points, they performed badly after beating City, so it's a definite possibility, they also have to play these other teams around us.

A lot just hinges on who blinks first. I think if we drop points tomorrow it's massive, and equally if we win it's massive too. Tomorrow is a crucial game in the title race. There's not really much point making predictions as I've said, because form can waver for anyone, and the slightest bad result can swing the pendulum in terms of pressure and letting Arsenal back in. It's easy to say on paper we should win this game or that game, but it doesn't always work out. Look at the United game, we're more than capable of slipping up against a low block team at home too. We could go and win a couple of those big away games and then drop points at home against Wolves or Southampton, we've seen it before.
 
If we win the next 3 I can see Arsenal collapsing.
I think this is what we have to do really, I can't see it going the distance either way. I think we will either put daylight between us over the next couple of games, or it will just be back on completely and that's where I see us sliding. It's hard to call.
 
Once we play City (in 4 games time) we will be a game ahead of the rest and can completely tilt the game-in-hand pressure.

What is both a benefit, but a pain in the arse is that I see three of these games, as three of our four hardest left this season.

Villa away, City away, Newcastle home & Arsenal home. These are the 4 toughest IMO on paper and 3 of them our in the next 2 weeks. This means even if we do drop points - we will still be ahead in the race and will go into a run where 90% of the games left are easier (on paper).

Obviously it would be great if we get a big haul across these games, as that pretty much seels things up early. However its also not a huge challenge if we do drop points as we have plenty more games where 3 points are coming home.
 
I don't want to jinx it by saying with Arse having a small squad and injuries, they have to play a far more intense form of football which can force them to lose steam and succumb to more injuries. Well, that is my hope.
They lose Odreguard, they will be in trouble
 
I think this is what we have to do really, I can't see it going the distance either way. I think we will either put daylight between us over the next couple of games, or it will just be back on completely and that's where I see us sliding. It's hard to call.

I think we're in too good a position for us to collapse like last season. I mean we actually play them at the end of the season at Anfield, so as long as we're within 2 points of them at that point we'd still have a decent chance of winning the title.

It's hard to see us dropping 12 points more than they do by then.

But I agree that if they get close to us over the next month then it'll be a real battle. It's definitely not over.
 
I think we're in too good a position for us to collapse like last season. I mean we actually play them at the end of the season at Anfield, so as long as we're within 2 points of them at that point we'd still have a decent chance of winning the title.

It's hard to see us dropping 12 points more than they do by then.

But I agree that if they get close to us over the next month then it'll be a real battle. It's definitely not over.
No, someone did the maths on here and I've been advised it's over.

It was a massive relief, I don't really need to watch the games now.
 
Without falling into hyperbole, the derby tomorrow carries massive weight psychologically for the race from here.

To have made the most of our game in hand and go into the weekend with a significant 9 point gap should have most of us feeling super confident at this point of the season.

A second loss on the bounce (even if it’s a wholly different side playing) and reduction in our potential lead to 6 and Arsenal will be smelling blood…even if I don’t ultimately think they have the consistency and mettle to catch us.

Just fucking win tomorrow…
 
Agree with others - a lot rides on the next month. If we get through that 7-8 points clear of Arsenal we'll take it, IMHO. I expect Arsenal to close some of the gap before the end of the year, but I just don't see this squad collapsing with fatigue in the way we did last year and lets face it, their record at Anfield is abysmal (2 points from the last 6 games). If it was an Arsenal fan, I wouldn't be confident.
 
If we win all our home games, we should take it, there is one against Arsenal.

What's left is 7 away games 6 points ahead with a game in hand.
 
Honestly, maybe I'm being very simplistic about it, but the only performance that felt like a big disappointment this season was united. That sort of shit again in a game like this, and I won't believe we win the league.
 
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