Summer Transfer Window

[Beamrider]

For your information, and with an eye on potential sales, I did some estimates of the likely carrying values of our squad at 31/5/2024 (end of last financial year). My equivalent estimate for 2023 was £299m, and the accounts disclosed £289m, so I reckon these numbers will be there or thereabout, unless the published (rumoured) transfer fees for last summer's buys were way off.
If we sell anyone for more than the figure below then we should be booking a profit on sale. Bear in mind my numbers will also include estimates of agent's fees and levies, so some of the recent ones may look a bit higher than you might expect as a result. This is also why we have some cost allocated to home-grown players, as we will have paid agency fees on their contract renewals.

Szob £57.2m
Darwin £43.1m
Mac Alister £36.1m
Gravy £33.8m
Cody £31.2m
Diaz £29.0m
Jota £20.7m
Virgil £16.6m
Ibou £16.3m
Endo £13.5m
Alisson £13.1m
Mo £6.1m
Kostas £5.2m
Harvey £3.7m
Carvalho £3.7m
Ramsay £3.2m
Robbo £2.7m
Gomez £1.7m
Trent £1.5m
Jones £0.9m
Kelleher £0.7m
Sepp £0.5m
Thiago £0.5m
Pitaluga £0.3m
Nat £0.3m
Bajcetic £0.2m
Morton £0.2m
All others (including Matip and Adrian) are under £50k.

There's a good chance we will need to write-down Ramsay this summer, but it won't be a big hit. So you may hear some talk of "player impairment" when the accounts come out in 10 months' time.

 

[Red Bird]

Too eager to sell our youngsters at any fee, you lot.

I’d sell some of the those older ones first.

 

[Dreambeliever]

View: https://x.com/LFCTransferRoom/status/1794405792080347338

Great news. He was never good enough and never will be. 10m is a decent fee.

 

[binomial]

Great news. He was never good enough and never will be. 10m is a decent fee.

It's not news. It's rumours. Just like 99% of the shit you're gonna see the next 3 months.

 

[The Nomad]

Great news. He was never good enough and never will be. 10m is a decent fee.

So you watch the Bundesliga religiously now too?

 

[StevieM]

So you watch the Bundesliga religiously now too?

It’s the Dreamie Paradigm - take anything he says and the opposite is likely to be true.

 

[darkstarexodus]

For your information, and with an eye on potential sales, I did some estimates of the likely carrying values of our squad at 31/5/2024 (end of last financial year). My equivalent estimate for 2023 was £299m, and the accounts disclosed £289m, so I reckon these numbers will be there or thereabout, unless the published (rumoured) transfer fees for last summer's buys were way off.
If we sell anyone for more than the figure below then we should be booking a profit on sale. Bear in mind my numbers will also include estimates of agent's fees and levies, so some of the recent ones may look a bit higher than you might expect as a result. This is also why we have some cost allocated to home-grown players, as we will have paid agency fees on their contract renewals.

Szob £57.2m
Darwin £43.1m
Mac Alister £36.1m
Gravy £33.8m
Cody £31.2m
Diaz £29.0m
Jota £20.7m
Virgil £16.6m
Ibou £16.3m
Endo £13.5m
Alisson £13.1m
Mo £6.1m
Kostas £5.2m
Harvey £3.7m
Carvalho £3.7m
Ramsay £3.2m
Robbo £2.7m
Gomez £1.7m
Trent £1.5m
Jones £0.9m
Kelleher £0.7m
Sepp £0.5m
Thiago £0.5m
Pitaluga £0.3m
Nat £0.3m
Bajcetic £0.2m
Morton £0.2m
All others (including Matip and Adrian) are under £50k.

There's a good chance we will need to write-down Ramsay this summer, but it won't be a big hit. So you may hear some talk of "player impairment" when the accounts come out in 10 months' time.

Little bit concerning that the jury is very much out (and that's being charitable) on 3 of the top 4 highest (or 5 of 6).

 

[StevieM]

@Beamrider

You mentioned in an earlier post that you reckoned we might have cash to spend without the need for sales. (I think).

Given we seemingly had money for Caicedo and I’d presume would still satisfy FFP had we bought - I know this would be a guess but your educated guess would be better that press speculation - what sort of wiggle room do you think we have to add to spend on squad additions?

 

[Beamrider]

@Beamrider

You mentioned in an earlier post that you reckoned we might have cash to spend without the need for sales. (I think).

Given we seemingly had money for Caicedo and I’d presume would still satisfy FFP had we bought - I know this would be a guess but your educated guess would be better that press speculation - what sort of wiggle room do you think we have to add to spend on squad additions?

I'm not sure whether that Caicedo money was ever really there. I think we'd have found it if we'd agreed a deal, but I don't think it's been burning a hole in our pockets.
I don't think FFP will be a worry. To 2023, I estimate our 3 year total at a profit of about £60m. So there's no way we're going to have any issues with PSR for PL purposes (£165m in hand). UEFA is now on the football costs ratio, and my previous assessment on that was that we were probably compliant with the long-term target, but 2024-25 is still a transitional year so there is some extra buffer.
When it comes to spending, I think the constraint will be cash. Long-term, FSG manage to net cash-flow break-even, which, given they don't take money out of the club, means that we can spend what we generate. However, in the last few years, some of that cash generated has been spent on the training ground and the Annie Road. That won't be the case this year.
So my rough estimate (low end of the range):
5 year average operating cash-flow (excluding covid affected 2021) £105.8m
Less: normalised fixed asset spend (guesstimate) £(10.0)m
Net instalments from pre 31/5/23 spending (per accounts) £(6.7m)
1/3 of post 31/5/23 net spending (per accounts) £(52.1)m
Extra income from Annie Road (guesstimate) £9.5m
CASH AVAILABLE FOR 2024-25 SPENDING £46.5m
Bear in mind this is just the instalments we'd spend in 2024-25. So knock off, say, 10% for agent fees and multiply by 3 and this implies a minimum spend of £127m (headline transfer fee terms).
I'm assuming the loss of Thiago and Matip will largely fund the wage costs, but if not, then some of the available cash will need to pay for wages, and the headline transfer fee budget reduces accordingly.
However, this all ignores:
- the cash injection from the Dynasty investment (reported at between $100m and $200m, and this isn't reflected in the 2023 accounts) and whether we decide to stretch our resources a bit more by borrowing short-term. Although Dynasty was supposed to pay down external debt, it effectively allows us to draw that debt down again if we choose to do so - the facility is still there.
- any cash flow from sales, which would likely go straight back into the pot
-any additional underlying profit (e.g. commercial income, possible extra value from new format of Champions League).
So bottom line is minimum spend of £127m (headline fees) plus value of any sales plus extra if we decide to draw short-term debt or make more underlying profit.

 

[Beamrider]

Just to add that the 2023-24 accounts state that since the year end (31/5/2023) the club had done transfer deals with a net payable of £156.2m. The equivalent figure in my analysis above is the £127m + 10% agent fees = £140m. I'd be surprised if we spend less (net) than we did last year, especially as we still had completion of the Annie Road hanging over us at the end of the summer 2023 transfer window.

 

[StevieM]

Just to add that the 2023-24 accounts state that since the year end (31/5/2023) the club had done transfer deals with a net payable of £156.2m. The equivalent figure in my analysis above is the £127m + 10% agent fees = £140m. I'd be surprised if we spend less (net) than we did last year, especially as we still had completion of the Annie Road hanging over us at the end of the summer 2023 transfer window.

So - roughly, a net spend of about £150m is achievable without fucking ourselves and not shedding anyone significant from our pool of players, if we want to really give Slot a golden opportunity.

 

[MomoWASright]

DON’T FORGET THE SWIFTY MONEY!!!!!!!!!

3 dates at Anfield should bring in about £350k. So not that impressive.

 

[StevieM]

I’m not saying we will.

I’m saying we could.

 

[StevieM]

DON’T FORGET THE SWIFTY MONEY!!!!!!!!!

3 dates at Anfield should bring in about £350k. So not that impressive.

That money?!!! We’ll shake it off… shake it off.. in no time.

 

[Beamrider]

So - roughly, a net spend of about £150m is achievable without fucking ourselves and not shedding anyone significant from our pool of players, if we want to really give Slot a golden opportunity.

Yep, and the last few years we've brought in an average of around £40m sales proceeds for the (mostly fringe) players we've sold. We could easily do the same again this year.

I've ignored the Coutinho year as that distorts the picture, and obviously Barcelona / Villa / Al-Duhali still owe us most of the cash anyway. 😉

 

[Dreambeliever]

So you watch the Bundesliga religiously now too?

No but I’ve seen enough of him and the scouting reports on his mentality at the time were enough to know he’d never make it here. Any profit and getting him off the books is a good thing. More cash to get in better prospects.

 

[Dreambeliever]

It’s the Dreamie Paradigm - take anything he says and the opposite is likely to be true.

Yawn.

 

[Dreambeliever]

I wonder if the super league ruling will reopen that can of worms. Surely there will be interest again from various clubs.

 

[StevieM]

Yawn.

Where’s the list of players who were run into the ground - still waiting?

 

[Dreambeliever]

Where’s the list of players who were run into the ground - still waiting?

If you don’t get it, I really can’t help you.

Another poster nailed it when talking about why we failed. Calling out minutes as some kind of gotcha moment is moronic.

We’ve been trying to reclimb Everest for 4 years and the squad was fucked physically, mentally and emotionally and trying to compete on four front with games every 3 or 4 days coupled with the 12:30’s and the Thursday Sunday combos of European footy was always going to be a bridge too far for this group of players.

I’ve been saying it all season and I’m sure it pisses you off no end that it has proven to be correct. Not that anyone with half a footballing IQ couldn’t see it coming a mile away.

 

[keniget]

The squad, largely comprised of new(ish) players and younger players working their way into the first team proper, was fucked on all fronts due to the last 4 years that they weren't fully here for.

Makes sense.

 

[Beamrider]

I think the reality is that the intensity (uh oh, I'm going to sound like Pep Lijnders here) of Klopp's pressing game placed more physical stress on our players than, say, the possession-based, passing game of a Guardiola or Arteta.
Anecdotally, I was told by someone who worked at the club that they were worried about our player insurance premiums going up when we signed Klopp because he came with a recommendation of "breaking" players by working them harder than they were used to. And you will all recall the number of extra muscle strain injuries we picked up in the months after his arrival.
We also had more injuries than City and Arsenal, partly a result of the extra stress placed on our players and partly because we took a gamble on some players with a history of injuries who were always going to be at risk of breaking down. So even our centre backs, who don't do as much running as the rest of the team, still played under physical stress as their colleagues were often injured and couldn't share the load the way we wanted.
That meant our core of players probably had more physical stress than some of our rivals. It's not just about minutes played, or even distance covered, it's often about sprints and how hard they run, not just how far.
On top of that, and this applies to all the top clubs, international football hasn't helped either. They've followed covid up with a Euros in summer 2021, a World Cup mid-season in 2022 and now another Euros this summer - 3 tournaments in the space of 3 years and a month, on the back of a 12-month period massively disrupted by the pandemic, leading to more games being played in a compressed space of time. The players need a proper rest. Pure and simple.
Of course our players, collectively and individually, are knackered. All the top players are. Ours are probably just a bit more knackered from how hard they have to run and/or not being (able to be) rotated at key points in the season.
That said, I was still surprised at how the team seemed to fall off a cliff in the last 5-6 weeks of the season. I'd have expected them to keep it going and then have a dip in a season or two (like we did in 2022-23, when the effect on the likes of Fabinho and Henderson was clear for all to see).

 

[StevieM]

If you don’t get it, I really can’t help you.

Another poster nailed it when talking about why we failed. Calling out minutes as some kind of gotcha moment is moronic.

We’ve been trying to reclimb Everest for 4 years and the squad was fucked physically, mentally and emotionally and trying to compete on four front with games every 3 or 4 days coupled with the 12:30’s and the Thursday Sunday combos of European footy was always going to be a bridge too far for this group of players.

I’ve been saying it all season and I’m sure it pisses you off no end that it has proven to be correct. Not that anyone with half a footballing IQ couldn’t see it coming a mile away.

You weren’t proven correct.

Fighting on 4 fronts is what every top team does. You’re so desperate for us to lose cup games, it’s sickening - when instead we use our squad, mostly to get through the early rounds and build winning momentum.m to carry us through the season.

City do it, before them Chelsea did it, Utd did it, Arsenal did it -

City even do it with less players than we do - check it out if you don’t believe it.

Yet here you are gurning about trying to win too many things, how we’re running the players into the ground -what’s your solution - play Salah & Nunez less, so that they can be less run into the ground?

Waffling on about how it’s all the defences fault and our forwards are the 2nd best ever when it’s blindingly obvious we would have won more if they’d just been a little more clinical in a system focused on attack at the expense of defence.

You’ve been talking bollocks all season - no change there and as usual Captain Cashout can’t wait to tell us he was right all along when we don’t win anything - not that you actually pay any attention to the actual reasonsz

I must have missed this post calling out how minutes on the pitch is moronic - please send me a link and I’ll happily debate that. We failed because players lost form or failed to perform at key moments during the season for a multitude of reasons.

In taking you to task because time and time again you come up with these bollocks half arse statements because you think you’re being smart by being controversial or contrary - and none of them… NONE OF THEM… are backed up by evidence.

You want to have a debate about how we ran our players into the ground - fine - show me the evidence that they’re playing more minutes or covering more ground.

You want to tell me our squad isn’t big enough to compete on 4 fronts, then show how much bigger City’s is?

You think defences win titles - fine show me the evidence that the teams with the best defensive records win more than the teams with the best attacking records.

It’s just lazy inaccurate bollocks you’re spouting.

 

[binomial]

WHO the FUCK are WE signing.

 

[Beamrider]

You want to tell me our squad isn’t big enough to compete on 4 fronts, then show how much bigger City’s is?

On this point, City and Arsenal both used 25 players in the Premier League last year. This was the lowest in the league.
We used 30. The average was 29. Highest was 35 (Sheff Utd).
City and Arsenal didn't need bigger squads than us, because they didn't have the injuries we did. Which IMHO owes a lot to their style of play.
As a headline stat on style of play, we made 2,034 ball recoveries, a league high. City made 1,734 (17th in the league) and Arsenal 1,752 (15th). We spent a lot of time running around trying to win the ball back.

 

[MomoWASright]

On this point, City and Arsenal both used 25 players in the Premier League last year. This was the lowest in the league.
We used 30. The average was 29. Highest was 35 (Sheff Utd).
City and Arsenal didn't need bigger squads than us, because they didn't have the injuries we did. Which IMHO owes a lot to their style of play.
As a headline stat on style of play, we made 2,034 ball recoveries, a league high. City made 1,734 (17th in the league) and Arsenal 1,752 (15th). We spent a lot of time running around trying to win the ball back.

Because our knobhead forwards can’t keep the ball the gang of whoppers.

 

[StevieM]

I think the reality is that the intensity (uh oh, I'm going to sound like Pep Lijnders here) of Klopp's pressing game placed more physical stress on our players than, say, the possession-based, passing game of a Guardiola or Arteta.
Anecdotally, I was told by someone who worked at the club that they were worried about our player insurance premiums going up when we signed Klopp because he came with a recommendation of "breaking" players by working them harder than they were used to. And you will all recall the number of extra muscle strain injuries we picked up in the months after his arrival.
We also had more injuries than City and Arsenal, partly a result of the extra stress placed on our players and partly because we took a gamble on some players with a history of injuries who were always going to be at risk of breaking down. So even our centre backs, who don't do as much running as the rest of the team, still played under physical stress as their colleagues were often injured and couldn't share the load the way we wanted.
That meant our core of players probably had more physical stress than some of our rivals. It's not just about minutes played, or even distance covered, it's often about sprints and how hard they run, not just how far.
On top of that, and this applies to all the top clubs, international football hasn't helped either. They've followed covid up with a Euros in summer 2021, a World Cup mid-season in 2022 and now another Euros this summer - 3 tournaments in the space of 3 years and a month, on the back of a 12-month period massively disrupted by the pandemic, leading to more games being played in a compressed space of time. The players need a proper rest. Pure and simple.
Of course our players, collectively and individually, are knackered. All the top players are. Ours are probably just a bit more knackered from how hard they have to run and/or not being (able to be) rotated at key points in the season.
That said, I was still surprised at how the team seemed to fall off a cliff in the last 5-6 weeks of the season. I'd have expected them to keep it going and then have a dip in a season or two (like we did in 2022-23, when the effect on the likes of Fabinho and Henderson was clear for all to see).

You’ll be equally surprised if you start to look at the minutes played and the kms covered by our players compared to other teams.

All the top teams press relentlessly.m - I reckon Arsenal’s minutes & kms will be up there.

The thing that Dreamue appears to be wilfully ignoring is that most top teams, and Arsenal appear to be the perfect example, have done well by maintaining a core that rarely changes.

We’ve suffered in defence because we didn’t have a regular partner for Virgil, or two best FBs missed large parts of the season with injury - not training related - we didn’t have our DM position sorted for large parts of the season.

None of these are down to training methods - despite the fact Klopp has a reputation for working the players hard (I always understood this to be early season so they’re fit enough to last the season).

We rotated a lot in midfield - particularly the second half of the season when really only Mac was ever present (Endo next) but CJ, Gravy, Dom (after injury) and Harvey (until the last 5 games played consistently.

Same up front - Gakpo didn’t really string more than 2 starts back to back until last 5 or so games.

That’s different to Klopp’s previous seasons were he tended to religiously stick to a set line up as much as possible.

I still maintain it was the Utd FA Cup loss that scuppered our season - it drained the confidence and belief we needed to finish the season strongly.

 

[StevieM]

On this point, City and Arsenal both used 25 players in the Premier League last year. This was the lowest in the league.
We used 30. The average was 29. Highest was 35 (Sheff Utd).
City and Arsenal didn't need bigger squads than us, because they didn't have the injuries we did. Which IMHO owes a lot to their style of play.
As a headline stat on style of play, we made 2,034 ball recoveries, a league high. City made 1,734 (17th in the league) and Arsenal 1,752 (15th). We spent a lot of time running around trying to win the ball back.

Extrapolate that out to all comps and Arsenal & City used 27 (I think) and we used 35 - meaning we used other players in the cup comps.

But also you look at Arsenal players like Rice, playing more games and covering more ground than our players. Gabriel played every minute of every league & Champions league game.

Id agree Arsenal achieved what they did by keeping a tight squad - they avoided injuries to key players - we didn’t - is that bad luck or because of how we play?

 

[Beamrider]

I still maintain it was the Utd FA Cup loss that scuppered our season - it drained the confidence and belief we needed to finish the season strongly.

I think this is right. I do still think we were more tired because we had done more pressing than the other top teams (because we gave the ball away more and had to win it back more), and also because we went deep in all 4 competitions. But the turnaround from being totally dominant in that Utd game, 2 up and it should have been at least double that, to somehow losing it, and the impact that had on our belief, was definitely what did for us for the rest of the season. And I don't think knowing Klopp was leaving helped at that point, as it made it harder for him to inspire the team once the "do it for the boss" bounce had faded.
I think when a team goes out believing they're going to win, then they find the will to play through the fatigue. But when the belief is gone, it's easy, mentally, to throw in the towel. Most of those games where we dropped points are games that we should, and on the day, could have won. But the players didn't believe we would.
United did to us what Divock did to Barca.

 

[Beamrider]

Extrapolate that out to all comps and Arsenal & City used 27 (I think) and we used 35 - meaning we used other players in the cup comps.

But also you look at Arsenal players like Rice, playing more games and covering more ground than our players. Gabriel played every minute of every league & Champions league game.

Id agree Arsenal achieved what they did by keeping a tight squad - they avoided injuries to key players - we didn’t - is that bad luck or because of how we play?

I think it's a combination of:
- recruiting injury-prone players (Jota, Matip, Thiago, Konate etc) who are always going to have spells on the sidelines
- previously injury-resilient players getting older (Mo, Robbo)
- the style we play
But I think the style we play, and our clumsiness with the ball last season, made all the underlying problems worse. It's not the single cause, but it is a factor that affects everything else.
And I think we have to mention the league as well. Because the PL is so physically intense, it means players who have done OK in other leagues may struggle more here because the game is so much quicker.