Suarez

[the_khl]

People really should calm down.

IF we sell Suarez, and to be honest a great part of me hope we do, for a nice fat check too, we will see more than a few new heads (some of which are premature balding) and we will feel rightly compensated.

3 or 4 potential world class players at the cost of one truly world class player. Perhaps a minor set back at first, but in the long run, a giant leap forward.

 

[doctor_mac]

I remember when we signed Marcus Babbel, we got beat by one of the other top sides and in his interview after it he said that Bayern Munich didn't give a shit about big matches against top sides. He said you can lose all of them if you want, so long as you beat the other 14 sides in the league that you're miles better than you'll win the league.

WE'RE GONNA WIN THE LEAGUE.

Didn't Manu win the league on the past few occasions by rattling up 1-0 wins against the league's plodders?

Yes. Yes they did.

 

[Rosco]

If selling Suarez didn't involve a deal for Eriksen would you be for it ?

 

[rurikbird]

Cisse was the most efficient (shots per goal) striker in Germany and won their golden boot thingy. He was second to Messi across Europe.

The "efficiency" stat (goals scored per shot on goal) reminds me of the BABIP stat in baseball, which (as I'm sure you all know) stands for batting average on balls in play meaning that it measures how often the balls hit by the player end up falling between defenders rather than being caught. When a player has a high BABIP in one season it doesn't mean he is very good - on the contrary it means his stats are inflated, because he is simply being lucky that the balls he hits are not getting caught as often. Basically it's a stat measuring luck.

I think same goes for football. When a striker goes through a period when most of his shots on goal become goals, this doesn't mean he is very good. It means: he is getting lucky and his goal stats are temporarily inflated - stay away.

 

[the_khl]

I remember when we signed Marcus Babbel, we got beat by one of the other top sides and in his interview after it he said that Bayern Munich didn't give a shit about big matches against top sides. He said you can lose all of them if you want, so long as you beat the other 14 sides in the league that you're miles better than you'll win the league.

WE'RE GONNA WIN THE LEAGUE.

I like this post.

May I add that we last Season created more chances, shots, etc. than anyone and yet played out boring 0-0 draws at home against everyone all the time, compared to this Season where we have already managed to win a game where we were beaten in all of the shots on/off goals stats. That's progress.

 

[the_khl]

If selling Suarez didn't involve a deal for Eriksen would you be for it ?

Yes. This has nothing do to with Eriksen, but all to do with Suarez, the expected fee and the shortcomings in the squad.

If not Eriksen then someone else will be brought in, alongside 2-3 other potential top class players, and we'd have gained on several parameters long term.

 

[the_khl]

If selling Suarez didn't involve a deal for Eriksen would you be for it ?

*I actually believe we'll buy Eriksen whether Suarez stays or not, but that's a different story.

 

[TSD]

Moses + Eriksen + centre half = not a bad summer spree. There's still a window of hope.

 

[LeTallecWiz]

Moses + Eriksen + centre half = not a bad summer spree. There's still a window of hope.

As per Ross & Pete, this only happens if Suarez goes.

 

[Rosco]

The "efficiency" stat (goals scored per shot on goal) reminds me of the BABIP stat in baseball, which (as I'm sure you all know) stands for batting average on balls in play meaning that it measures how often the balls hit by the player end up falling between defenders rather than being caught. When a player has a high BABIP in one season it doesn't mean he is very good - on the contrary it means his stats are inflated, because he is simply being lucky that the balls he hits are not getting caught as often. Basically it's a stat measuring luck.

I think same goes for football. When a striker goes through a period when most of his shots on goals become goals, this doesn't mean he is very good. It means: he is getting lucky and his goal stats are temporarily inflated - stay away.

The research pretty much says the same - shots per goal is more reliable than shots on target per goal.

The only slight correction I would offer is that BABIP doesn't always regress to the mean - some players routinely have a higher BABIP, usually those with lots of speed to get on from infield grounders. We're not at that stage with the football stats yet.

For anyone not interested but looking for a line you can quote in disbelief, Basically how many of your on target shots get converted to goals is seen as luck at this stage. There's no evidence that it's a repeatable skill.

Hence players will usually have a season when everything goes their way and leave people scratching their heads when they can't do it again. Unfortunately everyone takes that season as the player proving something.

 

[LarryHagman]

This is going to leave our plans of coming 6th in tatters.

 

[rurikbird]

The research pretty much says the same - shots per goal is more reliable than shots on target per goal.

The only slight correction I would offer is that BABIP doesn't always regress to the mean - some players routinely have a higher BABIP, usually those with lots of speed to get on from infield grounders. We're not at that stage with the football stats yet.

For anyone not interested but looking for a line you can quote in disbelief, Basically how many of your on target shots get converted to goals is seen as luck at this stage. There's no evidence that it's a repeatable skill.

Hence players will usually have a season when everything goes their way and leave people scratching their heads when they can't do it again. Unfortunately everyone takes that season as the player proving something.

Exactly. That's how we ended up signing Carroll for 35M, then watched him hit the post 50 times next season. The funny unbelievable infuriating thing is our man in charge of transfers at the time was Mr. Sabermetrics himself, Damien Comolli who should have seen this coming from a mile away, because this kind of analysis is the whole basis of Sabermetrics.

 

[jexykrodic]

The research pretty much says the same - shots per goal is more reliable than shots on target per goal.

The only slight correction I would offer is that BABIP doesn't always regress to the mean - some players routinely have a higher BABIP, usually those with lots of speed to get on from infield grounders. We're not at that stage with the football stats yet.

For anyone not interested but looking for a line you can quote in disbelief, Basically how many of your on target shots get converted to goals is seen as luck at this stage. There's no evidence that it's a repeatable skill.

Hence players will usually have a season when everything goes their way and leave people scratching their heads when they can't do it again. Unfortunately everyone takes that season as the player proving something.

Insomniacs should read this aloud late at night in a monotone voice. I bet they couldn't get past the 3rd recital before lapsing into a catatonic state.

 

[Woland]

The "efficiency" stat (goals scored per shot on goal) reminds me of the BABIP stat in baseball, which (as I'm sure you all know) stands for batting average on balls in play meaning that it measures how often the balls hit by the player end up falling between defenders rather than being caught. When a player has a high BABIP in one season it doesn't mean he is very good - on the contrary it means his stats are inflated, because he is simply being lucky that the balls he hits are not getting caught as often. Basically it's a stat measuring luck.

I think same goes for football. When a striker goes through a period when most of his shots on goals become goals, this doesn't mean he is very good. It means: he is getting lucky and his goal stats are temporarily inflated - stay away.

Nah. RvP was the most efficient striker in the league last year because he's shit hot, not because he's lucky.

Cisse transferred his form to Newcastle until the rest of the team went shit (10 goals in his first 9 games). I just asked some Geordies on another board what happened to him and they said that 1) Newcastle have stopped making chances making it very difficult for him to play himself back into form and 2) He's better in a front 2 and now he's on his own.

 

[keniget]

Moses + Eriksen + centre half = not a bad summer spree. There's still a window of hope.

I think we might struggle for goals.

 

[Hyena]

People really should calm down.

IF we sell Suarez, and to be honest a great part of me hope we do, for a nice fat check too, we will see more than a few new heads (some of which are premature balding) and we will feel rightly compensated.

3 or 4 potential world class players at the cost of one truly world class player. Perhaps a minor set back at first, but in the long run, a giant leap forward.

Who (else) would fall into this category of potentially world class players? And will they join us if Suarez leaves? (yes, incl the Hwmnbn)

 

[nealmac]

I remember when we signed Marcus Babbel, we got beat by one of the other top sides and in his interview after it he said that Bayern Munich didn't give a shit about big matches against top sides. He said you can lose all of them if you want, so long as you beat the other 14 sides in the league that you're miles better than you'll win the league.

WE'RE GONNA WIN THE LEAGUE.

TBF, I don't totally disagree. If we could beat the Stokes, the West Hams, the Southamptons, the West Broms etc twice in a season, that would be a huge step forward for us.

 

[TSD]

As per Ross & Pete, this only happens if Suarez goes.

Moses + Eriksen + centre half + Suarez staying would make for an exceptional summer spree then... unrealistic? Probably. We'll see by 2nd Sept. In the meanwhile, hope springs Eriksen.

*gags on own joke*

 

[rurikbird]

Nah. RvP was the most efficient striker in the league last year because he's shit hot, not because he's lucky.

Cisse transferred his form to Newcastle until the rest of the team went shit (10 goals in his first 9 games). I just asked some Geordies on another board what happened to him and they said that 1) Newcastle have stopped making chances making it very difficult for him to play himself back into form and 2) He's better in a front 2 and now he's on his own.

Cisse played as the lone striker for Freiburg when he scored 20+ goals in the league. So the 2nd explanation is bollox.

 

[TSD]

I think we might struggle for goals.

Even if Suarez stays? But I guess we can only take this discussion once the window closes. Just too hypothetical to go on.

 

[Dreambeliever]

Our fans are fucking tragic.
I honestly thought when the press were saying we'd u-turn if he stayed ALL of the fans would ridicule that.
But no. Some would rather he stayed.
Brilliant.

Difference is I never joined the i want him out club at any point. I've always wanted him to stay. Yoyoing back and forth is your thing 🙂

 

[Woland]

Cisse played as the lone striker for Freiburg when he scored 20+ goals in the league. So the 2nd explanation is bollox.

Fair enough, I don't know anything about his time in Germany other he bossed it in a shit team.

But he's 1 in 2 at international level. He was 1 in 2 in Germany. He was 1 in 2 in his first season at Newcastle. He'd be a good buy for us.

 

[the_khl]

Who (else) would fall into this category of potentially world class players? And will they join us if Suarez leaves? (yes, incl the Hwmnbn)

That's obviously a very good question.

I do however believe the club has showed us some nous in the market with especially Sturridge and Coutinho leading the way why I would have some confidence.

Perhaps out of former targets we could get lucky with Gylfi, whom I still believe could become a rather good player. This Ljaljic fella seems like a proper talent and there a few Ukrainians too that seems to tick a lot of the boxes. Will Hughes has been mentioned, don't know him myself, I bet there are a good few others with great potential that's not already tied up with the major clubs.

Go all in for someone like Zouma (the defender) as well as one of the major German talents that's not already with Bayern.

I haven't got anywhere near the needed insight for this kind of speculation but it's quite clear to me there's still a lot of great talent out there.

 

[the_khl]

Oh and Bendtner. There's always Bendtner.

 

[ILD]

I haven't been since last time we were there. I'm taking you and Aidan next time you are over though!

Most definitely.

 

[ILD]

Didn't Newcastle shunt one of Ba or Cisse out wide at times? Their goal scoring dried up as result.

 

[LeTallecWiz]

Didn't Newcastle shunt one of Ba or Cisse out wide at times? Their goal scoring dried up as result.

Ba ... they were playing basically 4-5-1 ...

 

[ILD]

I thought Cisse would start banging in the goals again when Ba moved to Chelsea. Cisse seems to enjoy playing up top on his own. He is a very good player.

 

[LeTallecWiz]

I thought Cisse would start banging in the goals again when Ba moved to Chelsea. Cisse seems to enjoy playing up top on his own. He is a very good player.

I think most people though him and Jelavic would be massive last year ... and they just struggled ... Cisse has been very poor - especially with his Suarez-like attempt to get out of Newcastle, while Jelavic seems to be playing ok.

 

[Frogfish]

I expect that we won't sell but there is an incentive to sell if the price is right and we have cash to bring in 2-3 first team players that could significantly improve our team. There's pro's and cons. I'm not averse to selling him but if he stays and we get on with it then so be it.

Well this is an about-face isn't it ? Considering how adamant you were just a few days ago :

Suarez has made his peace that his staying put at least for another season and even if Real come in for him now, he won't be sold.

Real is the team Suarez wants. If the offer is big enough then everyone gets what they want. Only issue for us is whether we can spend that money before the window closes or if it will have to wait until January. If it's the later then bye-bye to our CL places challenge.

Its unlikely to happen as its already too late in the window as testified by Henry himself. Unless there's a world class Plan B option readily available, Suarez will not be sold.