Kingjulian>
I respect Rafa as a manager and tactician, but there is a serious attempt to hide Rafa's transfer market mistakes under the carpet in this thread. no mate, i can't speak for everyone but i'm sure there isn't. this is want irtates me a bit about his critics - that they seem to imply that we'd have a particular motive for defending or sanitising his record. well, i know i don't! i genuinely believe he's unfairly judged - especially his transfer record - and what annoys me when i see that kind of criticism isn't that it's aimed at benitez but that i think it's plain wrong, full stop.
Using Net Spend as an indication of his performance in the squad can lead to some serious misrepresentation of facts.
- Rafa had a huge turnover of player. More so than most (almost any) managers. For example, in the Right Back slot he has used/bought Finnan, Josemi, Baragan, Krompkamp, Arbeloa, Degen, Johnson and a few youngsters. He kept buying players and then moving them on for a marginal loss or sometimes a small profit, because the player didn't work out. It gets even worse when you look at the amount of money he wasted on the wings by bringing in players and then moving them on a year or two down the line and starting from square one. If not for Torres his success rate with forwards will be just as dire. i could accept this point more easily if you were talking about players that were major signings, but josemi? a £2m right back? an early error, sure, but he at least provided cheap backup and by jan 07 had been traded for almost exactly the same fee for arbeloa, a bargain signing. it seems an essential element of buying on a shoestring, at least to me, to be willing to wheel and deal, because you know that as often as not such cheap signings will fail. as for barragan, he wasn't signed as a right-back per se, but as a promising youngster. he couldn't settle so wa sold back to spain - what's the problem? degen was signed on a free transfer as back-up because finnan was leaving or had left: a minor position in the squad addressed with a minor signing. i agree (presumably) that a better player would've been preferable, but i'm not sure how easy one would have been to find for free - i couldn't say. johnson hasn't proved to be the best of signings so far, but he wasn't brought in as a like-for-like replacement for arbeloa, but as an attempt to provide a bit more creativity down the flank, a problem that had come to light during the previous league season. it would be wrong, therefore, to include his purchase in the same sequence of misfit signings and replacements that started with josemi and ended with arbeloa. for me, it's all very well just naming a long list of his signings and criticising them for their very number, but without attempting to put them in context or give them a meaningful narrative i think that approach is, well, useless. it'd be different if there had been a constant turnover in big money signings, all of whom great things were expected, but each one had failed and been replaced, one a year - but i don't think that ever really happened. you've got more of a point with the wingers: gonzalez, pennant, babel, riera were all failures to varying degrees, but i'll give one point in defence for 3 of them. gonzalez was a cheap punt sold quicly for a profit - not imo a bad thing, although i realise you disagree. babel was a hot property who looked a bold signing at the time - it was, at least, understandable. riera actually looked decent for a season and played a useful part in the title challenge. it's also worth remembering, in general, that rafa might be considered a bit unlucky with wingers because he was, in 3 consecutive seasons, very close to signing simao, dani alves, and malouda, all top-class players. that's why i find the oft-stated opinion that rafa simply couldn't buy good wingers - while understandable - a bit unbalanced. finally, strikers. so there's morientes, crouch, bellamy, kuyt and keane. first up morientes - no arguments here, a clear failure, totally unsuited to the premier league. at least he was a cheap failure, i suppose. crouch, bellamy and kuyt were all brought in over the next year and formed our strike force for 06/07. these are all part of the same reality that he was basically trying to fill out a small inherited squad with only an average budget, so the end result was more or less expected: decent players but not quite the answer. when bigger money arrived in 07, bellamy was sold to help pay for torres, so as with the right backs i think it's wrong to see this as quick turnover of failed signings, but a reflection of changed circumstances: suddenly he could compete for a different calibre of player. the same analysis can be applied to the crouch for keane 'swap' in 2008 - a decent player on the books who could, due to increased power in the market, now be upgraded. it's not so much that the crouch signing was a failure, but more a relic from a different ownership/budget. of course, the fact that pompey were offering high wages made it harder to keep hold of the player, even if benitez wanted to.
The net-spend was obviously low, because he tended to quickly ship his mistakes for a marginal loss. But it does not count the time wasted and the resulting value erosion over time with each of these mistakes, when in fact we could have been challenging for the title consistently when do you think we should've started challenging for the title then? imo the first season we could really have expected it is 2007/08, after the first really significant transfer outlay. as i said earlier i think he was a victim of his own success in winning the CL in 2005 as people suddenly started to think he had resources capable of challenging for the title. to me, that sounds ridiculous, because that CL success was a footballing miracle - almost ridiculously unlikely. to add to that team with zenden, reina, sissoko and crouch and expect a title challenge seems laughable, expecially when the oponents were the most expensive team in the history of the league, who'd just won the league with 97 points, and were managed by jose mourinho, one of the best young coaches in the world. 2006/07 was perhaps a more realistic target, but an investment of around £20m is still fairly modest compared to chelsea's unprecedented spending and a utd team that had ronaldo and rooney ariving at their best form. it would have been an extraordinary achievement to have won the title, although to be fair the team never even got into the race early in the season, which wasn't good enough. if he had even a slightly higher success rate with those transfers for winger and wing-back slots.
I would much rather look at the sum of all transfer-in amounts, than look at the net spend to evaluate how he performed with transfers.
i think both measures have their uses, but net spend is clearly better imo, because that's wat tells you how much power a manager really had in the market. gross spend is useful, imo, where a manager has made lots of unnecessary and expensive flops. i went over this above, and as i said i don't think there are as many as you made out. keane and aquilani are the obvious 2, but that would ignore what i consider to be his good mitigting work in quickly facing up to the keane failure and getting a good fee back from spurs: i think you need to look at both, the initial big failure and the subsequent smaller mitigation.
Fact is, he took-over a good squad no he didn't (good enough to win the Champions League no it wasn't, not by any rational measure, anyway. by that logic i could say he himself left a squad good enough to win a houllier-style cup treble, or a squad bad enough to be relegated from the premier league.), and after buying about at least 30 players for the senior squad in 6 years, we are now weaker in most positions than when he first came in see below. We have absolutely no depth to top it off.
I think it is safe to put some of that blame on Rafa of course. This 'Only 58 million pound net spend for 6 years' argument does not convince me in the least bit.
< Kingjulian
2004 squad
dudek, 31
kirkland, 23
finnan, 28
henchoz, 29
hyypia, 30
carragher, 26
riise, 23
warncok, 22
diao, 27
biscan, 26
hamann, 31
murphy, 27
gerrard, 24
smicer, 31
le tallec, 19
kewell, 25
diouf, 23
sinama-pongolle, 19
mellor, 18
owen, 24
cisse, 23
baros, 22
(22 players in or close to first team squad)
first XI average age 26.5
squad average age 25
2010 squad
reina, 27
cavalieri, 27
johnson 26
kelly, 20
carragher, 32
agger, 25
skrtel, 25
kyrgiakos, 31
wilson, 18
insua, 21
mascherano, 26
lucas, 23
shelvey, 18
aquilani, 26
gerrard, 30
maxi, 29
benayoun, 30
riera, 28
babel, 23
kuyt, 30
pacheco, 19
n'gog, 21
torres, 26
(23 players in or close to first team squad)
first XI average age 26.9
squad average age 25.2
to me, those squads look fairly well matched - you certainly wouldn't immediately say houllier's was stronger. if i was to pick a 22 man squad from both, it'd be:
reina RB
dudek GH
finnan GH
johnson RB
carragher N/A
hyypia GH
agger RB
skrtel RB
riise GH
warnock GH
mascherano RB
hamann GH
murphy GH
gerrard N/A
aquilani RB
benayoun RB
kewell GH
babel RB
cisse GH
kuyt RB
owen GH
torres RB
10 each. not much to choose between a potential 1st XI, either. the one thing i think benitez's clealy wins on is the value of the players outside the first XI, the ones you could sell on to regenerate the squad. houllier left:
warnock
henchoz
diao
biscan
smicer
le tallec
sinama-pongolle
diouf
mellor
baros
benitez left:
kelly
wilson
skrtel
kyrgiakos
shelvey
aquilani
maxi
riera
babel
pacheco
n'gog
anyway, it should at least be crystal clear that the squad rafa inherited was not a CL-winning squad, barring a miracle - which is what benitez delivered.