Sal-ittihad

[rubans]

But the loan fee is absolutely the crux of the matter here. If Salah were at another club, no way would we do that deal to have him for one season. And as has been said, we can't guarantee he won't do his cruciate on 1 September next year and be no use to us so even with him there's no guarantees.
The point of the loan fee in my hypothesis is to mirror the effect of not selling him (in the same way getting in another forward for one year mirrors the effect of keeping him). If we sell him in the Summer, we're (possibly) £100m to the good. If we don't, we lose £100m, but gain another year of the player.
If I'm at the club, I would absolutely sell him next Summer (or even in January if the price is right). The only thing that would change that for me is if he signs a new contract before then. All selling does is bring forward the question of succession by 12 months, but it gives us the financial means to address that issue more effectively.

I’m not sure I see it as losing, he has a value that deprecates but he is not human cattle to put it nicely 🙂. The choice is ultimately down to him, if we accept a bid then he says no then I wouldn’t personally feel it’s something owed to us… he may ultimately feel it’s better for him to go US at 33 on a free then go to Saudi at 35 or something like that…
It's good source of discussion and has been a while but as with most forum discussions, kind of pointless though as the decision related to Salah ultimately whether sold will be sold for huge amounts will rest with him which I guess it's kind of rare in this modern age as I was expecting Salah and his agent to have left 4yrs ago to richer and far easier destinations but he is still here even after not qualifying for CL while I have seen fan favourites like Suarez and Alonso fck off at first sight of trouble for destinations with better tax rate of 5%.

 

[Hansern]

I think that the "drop off" is being exaggerated. He has lost some pace but its not much imho.
He's also still one of our fittest players.

The over 30 years old so he has to be sold argument isnt valid anymore given the development of sports science and how players conduct themselves.
Salah is probably one of the most serious players in that department in the World.

We are working on new deals for Trent and Virgil appaz, and the latter will throw SCM into a spanner.

 

[StevieM]

But the loan fee is absolutely the crux of the matter here. If Salah were at another club, no way would we do that deal to have him for one season. And as has been said, we can't guarantee he won't do his cruciate on 1 September next year and be no use to us so even with him there's no guarantees.
The point of the loan fee in my hypothesis is to mirror the effect of not selling him (in the same way getting in another forward for one year mirrors the effect of keeping him). If we sell him in the Summer, we're (possibly) £100m to the good. If we don't, we lose £100m, but gain another year of the player.
If I'm at the club, I would absolutely sell him next Summer (or even in January if the price is right). The only thing that would change that for me is if he signs a new contract before then. All selling does is bring forward the question of succession by 12 months, but it gives us the financial means to address that issue more effectively.

I don’t get this “he might do his cruciate” argument - surely it would mean we shouldn’t then buy a replacement in case they “do their cruciate” as well.

There’s no guarantees that having money to spend will lead to us buying someone who will improve the team or also that his goals and performances over the next 2 years help power us to success and leave us in a better position, financially whereby we don’t need £100m from his sale to acquire a replacement.

Also, why’s it limited to Salah - are we just waiting for the right offers from Saudi to sell Alisson, Virgil or even Trent and Nunez.

 

[ctlovesred]

The typical reasons for running down a contract and leaving for free don't really apply here though. Salah will get fabulous wealth and unthinkable perks whenever he leaves. I don't think he's the type to get his while screwing the club that made him a legend.

 

[Woland]

I don’t get this “he might do his cruciate” argument - surely it would mean we shouldn’t then buy a replacement in case they “do their cruciate” as well.

There’s no guarantees that having money to spend will lead to us buying someone who will improve the team or also that his goals and performances over the next 2 years help power us to success and leave us in a better position, financially whereby we don’t need £100m from his sale to acquire a replacement.

Also, why’s it limited to Salah - are we just waiting for the right offers from Saudi to sell Alisson, Virgil or even Trent and Nunez.

Because Salah is very likely coming to the end of his time at Liverpool in the next season or two, so might as well make a load of money if poss.

And yeah, everyone has their price. You'd assume Trent and Nunez would want to wait until they were Salah's age before doing what Salah is going to do soon though.

 

[StevieM]

If you can't see that salah is a less explosive player then I don't know what I can talk about with you. It happens to every single player.

I don't expect him to crack a worldy every game, but his ability to generate his own goals is down, and I've watched him waste possession in an unbelievable amount of games trying a shot that is now way lower percentage.

All of that might be true, but he doesn’t live in a vacuum - teams defend against us differently - it would be great if they all played a high line and gave Trent space to ping balls in behind them for Salah to run on to.

Team’s tactics evolve to counter him.

He’s played 51 games in each of his last 3 seasons and scored 31, 31 and 30 goals in those seasons - which is up on the 2 seasons prior to that where he scored 27 and 23 while not being as good as his stellar first season where he scored 44.

So, whatever loss of explosiveness or increase in possession wasting or lower percentage shot attempts he’s having - it’s not affecting his actual “putting the ball in the back of the net”.

There is a little drop off in league goals, but aside from that first season, it’s relatively close.

I mean, I’ll say it again, yes, I agree, there likely has been a dip of some sort in terms of his pace, explosiveness - he probably should have had more goals last season - but I’d argue that’s more to do with how we set up and played in the first half of the season that Salah’s diminished capabilities.

 

[Farkmaster]

Salah has received many outballs, with one defender to beat last season. He can't just run by them anymore and he's not that technical a dribbler out of the box down the line, and he's one footed. Defenders would just shunt him out to the corner flag. Not brilliant pacy defenders either. Just any fullback that's decent.

His adaptation now is to just retain possession, and that's fine. That's not the team shifting and him having to have a new role, it's the opposite. And sure, we used to make more space for him too, but you want the most amount of space in behind to go to your fastest player, which is not Salah.

Remember when salah would get the ball one on one and people would stand up. That isn't the case anymore. He generates goals and threat differently. Nunez has that threat without being as good a player. Speed kills and the margins are fine.

 

[Beamrider]

I don’t get this “he might do his cruciate” argument - surely it would mean we shouldn’t then buy a replacement in case they “do their cruciate” as well.

There’s no guarantees that having money to spend will lead to us buying someone who will improve the team or also that his goals and performances over the next 2 years help power us to success and leave us in a better position, financially whereby we don’t need £100m from his sale to acquire a replacement.

Also, why’s it limited to Salah - are we just waiting for the right offers from Saudi to sell Alisson, Virgil or even Trent and Nunez.

It's limited to Salah because the Saudis, reportedly, offered us £150m for him - they want him and are prepared to pay for him. They haven't, as far as I'm aware, tried to buy Alisson or VVD or Trent. And for the record, I think Alisson would be a bigger loss to us because the drop off from him to the kind of player we might be able to buy to replace him is huge, bigger even that with Salah.
And we're going to need to replace Mo sooner or later because either:
1. He'll agitate to move because the money in Saudi in the US is too good to turn down
2. His performance declines to a point where he isn't justifying his place in the team ahead of other players (although I don't see that happening before his current contract expires) or he isn't giving us value for his significant money
3. His demands for contract renewal are too big, so we know he'll end up leaving on a free.
He's still got huge value, especially to the Saudis, so we should think seriously about cashing in.
The point about his cruciate e is that the argument for keeping him goes that he "guarantees" goals/assists and wins games (where a replacement might not) but that isn't guaranteed, so it tips things towards cashing in and building a stronger squad, perhaps with two players for that position, allowing us better cover, albeit with a weakened first choice team. Like the way we strengthened the wider team when we sold Coutinho. Which some of us thought was the end of the world at the time.
But let's face it, this is all mostly theoretical because, as far as we know, he hasn't agitated for a move so far, if he does, and that's very possible, then it's a totally different ball game.

 

[StevieM]

You don't often make recommendations, so what stands out with this kid? What's the advantage he has over Simons who is the same age but interms of production, far better

No reason other than he was linked to us, is getable and wouldn’t cost a fortune.

Never actually seen him play - so if you want to swap him with Simon’s that’s fine.

The only difference is, we aren’t being linked to Simons and PSG own him, so I wouldn’t be sure they’re up for selling him to us.

 

[StevieM]

Salah has received many outballs, with one defender to beat last season. He can't just run by them anymore and he's not that technical a dribbler out of the box down the line, and he's one footed. Defenders would just shunt him out to the corner flag. Not brilliant pacy defenders either. Just any fullback that's decent.

His adaptation now is to just retain possession, and that's fine. That's not the team shifting and him having to have a new role, it's the opposite. And sure, we used to make more space for him too, but you want the most amount of space in behind to go to your fastest player, which is not Salah.

Remember when salah would get the ball one on one and people would stand up. That isn't the case anymore. He generates goals and threat differently. Nunez has that threat without being as good a player. Speed kills and the margins are fine.

I agree partly - you also want to create space for your best finisher - that is Salah.

We can play both Nunez & Salah - double trouble

 

[Farkmaster]

I agree partly - you also want to create space for your best finisher - that is Salah.

We can play both Nunez & Salah - double trouble

Which plays in front, and if the answer isn't Salah, which it isn't, then that's the difference between Salah now and salah then. Again, I'm pushing back on the idea that he's irreplaceable when aspects of what he can do have changed. Since fewer players can do what he used to do, he's not as valuable or as difficult to replace either.

 

[Donavan Ried]

OK... Bear in mind that I don't know If the Saudi Pro League have the equivalent of a January transfer window... And bear i mind that the Afcon runs from
13 Jan 2024 - 11 Feb 2024 (He leave 7th Jan to return 18th Feb)

Question... If we get a bid for Salah in January for £175m - £200m do we sell in that window

 

[StevieM]

It's limited to Salah because the Saudis, reportedly, offered us £150m for him - they want him and are prepared to pay for him. They haven't, as far as I'm aware, tried to buy Alisson or VVD or Trent. And for the record, I think Alisson would be a bigger loss to us because the drop off from him to the kind of player we might be able to buy to replace him is huge, bigger even that with Salah.
And we're going to need to replace Mo sooner or later because either:
1. He'll agitate to move because the money in Saudi in the US is too good to turn down
2. His performance declines to a point where he isn't justifying his place in the team ahead of other players (although I don't see that happening before his current contract expires) or he isn't giving us value for his significant money
3. His demands for contract renewal are too big, so we know he'll end up leaving on a free.
He's still got huge value, especially to the Saudis, so we should think seriously about cashing in.
The point about his cruciate e is that the argument for keeping him goes that he "guarantees" goals/assists and wins games (where a replacement might not) but that isn't guaranteed, so it tips things towards cashing in and building a stronger squad, perhaps with two players for that position, allowing us better cover, albeit with a weakened first choice team. Like the way we strengthened the wider team when we sold Coutinho. Which some of us thought was the end of the world at the time.
But let's face it, this is all mostly theoretical because, as far as we know, he hasn't agitated for a move so far, if he does, and that's very possible, then it's a totally different ball game.

If he agitates for a move, then he’s gone, no question and I’ve no issue with that.

I think you’re right in that I don’t see him diminishing over the length of his current contract to suggest he’d not justify his place in the team.

I also wouldn’t be keen on extending his contract given age and what he’d be wanting.

I also agree that absolutely nothing is guaranteed - but with everything we know, I’d be astounded that if Salah plays 50 odd games this season, that he won’t return around 30 goals and 15 assists. That’s as close to a guarantee as we’re likely to get.

The thing that worries me is our back room set up to identify and sign a replacement at the moment - I’d want that sorted first. That may lead to us getting set to sell next summer, it might not - I’m not keen on doing it in Jan either.

If we rebuild the defence over the next 2-3 transfer windows - which it looks like the plan is and funds are available for, then in theory if Salah stays until his contract is done and leaves on a free in 2 years time - he’s the only player that needs replacing, so the entire transfer budget can be allocated to that.

 

[rubans]

Salah stats by season (goals/assits)
[xtable=skin1]
{tfoot}
{tr}
{td}2022/23{/td}
{td}30{/td}
{td}16{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2021/22{/td}
{td}31 {/td}
{td}16{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2020/21{/td}
{td}31{/td}
{td}6{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2019/20{/td}
{td}23{/td}
{td}13{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2018/19{/td}
{td}27{/td}
{td}12 {/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2017/18{/td}
{td}44{/td}
{td}16{/td}
{/tr}
{/tfoot}
[/xtable]
It's not under question his speed and ability take on a player is less but that's not the only thing that makes a good RW / CF.
Pure stats tell a different picture in what he was and what he is now. He is just as effective as he has ever been bar season 0.

 

[StevieM]

Which plays in front, and if the answer isn't Salah, which it isn't, then that's the difference between Salah now and salah then. Again, I'm pushing back on the idea that he's irreplaceable when aspects of what he can do have changed. Since fewer players can do what he used to do, he's not as valuable or as difficult to replace either.

This might be me - but I’m not following that at all.

 

[Buddha]

Salah stats by season (goals/assits)
[xtable=skin1]
{tfoot}
{tr}
{td}2022/23{/td}
{td}30{/td}
{td}16{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2021/22{/td}
{td}31 {/td}
{td}16{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2020/21{/td}
{td}31{/td}
{td}6{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2019/20{/td}
{td}23{/td}
{td}13{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2018/19{/td}
{td}27{/td}
{td}12 {/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td}2017/18{/td}
{td}44{/td}
{td}16{/td}
{/tr}
{/tfoot}
[/xtable]
It's not under question his speed and ability take on a player is less but that's not the only thing that makes a good RW / CF.
Pure stats tell a different picture in what he was and what he is now. He is just as effective as he has ever been bar season 0.

When did he start taking our pens???

 

[StevieM]

OK... Bear in mind that I don't know If the Saudi Pro League have the equivalent of a January transfer window... And bear i mind that the Afcon runs from
13 Jan 2024 - 11 Feb 2024 (He leave 7th Jan to return 18th Feb)

Question... If we get a bid for Salah in January for £175m - £200m do we sell in that window

It depends on where we are in the league, how we’ve been playing and whether Salah indicates he wants to leave.

If we were 15 points clear at the top of the league, flying and Salah said he wanted to stay and win the league - would you still cash in?

If it looks like Nunez could shift out to the right and score a packet with Gakpo playing centrally and also scoring a packet, then it would be justified.

I’d like to win the League this season - that may be unlikely, but the chances of doing it if we sold Salah in the last few days of August without a replacement made it less likely.

I’d like to see what the chances of winning the league are in January are and how Salah, Nunez, Gakpo, Slobbers & Mac A are all performing before I actually make a decision.

 

[rubans]

When did he start taking our pens???

2017-18 season and missed the first one.

 

[StevieM]

When did he start taking our pens???

When he joined in 2017.

 

[StevieM]

He’s scored 20 out of 26 penalties.

 

[Modo]

He’s scored 20 out of 26 penalties.

77% conversion rate, it's good not great.

 

[StevieM]

77% conversion rate, it's good not great.

His overall average is about 75%

Nope it isn’t great - Gerrards’s was better at 80%

Milner was 83%

Danny Murphy was 97% - and he was playing for Fulham when he missed it.

Gary Mac was 91% and Phil Neal was about 88%.

Mac A & Slobbers both have better records both missing 1 each, from less penalties at 89% & 93% respectively.

In truth though he only needed to score a couple more to be over 80%.

Also - these figures are from Transfermarkt and I think they classify it as a miss even if you score on the rebound.

What is weird is Salah has only ever been the penalty taker for us at Club level - no one else.

 

[Beamrider]

The standard xG for a penalty is 0.76 - so Salah is basically "average" at penalties.
Szobo "never misses", apparently.

 

[peekay]

The standard xG for a penalty is 0.76 - so Salah is basically "average" at penalties.
Szobo "never misses", apparently.

It is one thing for newbies to do it, it is very disappointing when senior members of SCM like you dont respect the power of the jinx.

 

[StevieM]

The standard xG for a penalty is 0.76 - so Salah is basically "average" at penalties.
Szobo "never misses", apparently.

He’s missed one for RB Leipzig - in the 87th minute when they were 3-1 up.

 

[Hansern]

Mohamed Salah is 9 goals away from being in the all time Top 10 scorers in Premier League history He’s also 19 assists away from being in the all time Top 10 assisters in Premier League history

 

[Fabio]

Mohamed Salah is 9 goals away from being in the all time Top 10 scorers in Premier League history He’s also 19 assists away from being in the all time Top 10 assisters in Premier League history

First one he'll get this season. Can't see him getting the other one sadly

 

[tombrown]

What is weird is Salah has only ever been the penalty taker for us at Club level - no one else.

I just checked as I was sure this wasn't correct and that Milner used to be first choice. On checking, it seems that up until the end of the 18/19 season, Milner took them if he was on the pitch, even when Salah was also on the pitch.

Well it seems that way from this https://www.lfchistory.net/players/player/goalsperpop/1285-1 - that shows Salah being on the pitch when Milner took a load of penalties pre 19/20, what I cant be bothered checking is if Salah took any penalties when Milner was still on the pitch.

What is also true is that from 19/20 onwards Milner only scored pens when Salah either didn't start or had been substituted.

 

[StevieM]

I just checked as I was sure this wasn't correct and that Milner used to be first choice. On checking, it seems that up until the end of the 18/19 season, Milner took them if he was on the pitch, even when Salah was also on the pitch.

Well it seems that way from this https://www.lfchistory.net/players/player/goalsperpop/1285-1 - that shows Salah being on the pitch when Milner took a load of penalties pre 19/20, what I cant be bothered checking is if Salah took any penalties when Milner was still on the pitch.

What is also true is that from 19/20 onwards Milner only scored pens when Salah either didn't start or had been substituted.

What I meant was - Salah didn’t take penalties at any other club - he’s only taken penalties for us & Eqypt.

I did wonder if Milner was still taking the penalties after Salah arrived, but wasn’t playing as much.

Fun facts - the only other team that Milner took the penalties for was Villa - he’s taken a couple for England and he took one for City which he scored … against us.

 

[Dreambeliever]

Which plays in front, and if the answer isn't Salah, which it isn't, then that's the difference between Salah now and salah then. Again, I'm pushing back on the idea that he's irreplaceable when aspects of what he can do have changed. Since fewer players can do what he used to do, he's not as valuable or as difficult to replace either.

Oh I’m sorry how many players in the wound can come in and have the numbers he’s had from RW over the same number of years.
I’d argue he’s the most irreplaceable attacker we’ve had in 40 years. His numbers are insane when you consider consistency, Suarez, Torres, Fowler, Owen Mane, none of the them had these numbers year on year for 5 plus years.