Roberto Firmino - signed the silky swine

[Mystic]

His agent said last week that Firmino is moving to England.

That's why I'm at 50%. It's either us or United

Did he really? Seems certain it's one of us two then, although Chelsea have a habit of popping up at the last second in these sort of situations. As for United though, surely the signing of Depay makes this a no go for them? Off the top of my head they have Depay, Di Maria, Mata, Januzaj, Valencia, Young, Nani, obviously they'll sell some of those, but they seem more than stocked in that area.

 

[dmishra]

If he chooses us, I suspect Coutinho will have had something to do with it.

 

[Rosco]

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jun/15/roberto-firmino-hoffenheim-premier-league-agent

 

[Mystic]

He only scored 7 goals last season, which is a bit naff.

 

[Skullflower]

7%

 

[dmishra]

Yeah, 22 in 37 in all comps in 2013-14. And just 10 in 36 in 2014-15. It's a big drop off.

I wonder if it was perhaps because he was played as a striker in 13-14, and maybe deeper in 14-15? Any Bundesliga experts?

 

[dmishra]

Here are a few clips of him playing as a striker for Brazil. Watch these closely. The runs he makes, the lay offs and the way he peels off defenders - all traits of a specialist striker rather than an AM. In fact, he seems to have a preference to lay off the ball than to run with it.









Some impressive stuff in those videos. A bit like a diet-Suarez.

Then let's look at his 2013-14 goals clip. This is very telling. I counted 20 goals in this clip - 2 penalties. All the rest bar one are goals in the box. And not from late runs into the box, he's the last man in all these goals. Very very striker-ish goals.



I have no doubt that his best position is as a second striker.

 

[Cerberus]

I think he's an excellent player and believe he would excel up front or with sturrudge. I said as much about two years ago on here. I'd be over the moon if we got him.

 

[hamstrung_pigeon]

Yeah, 22 in 37 in all comps in 2013-14. And just 10 in 36 in 2014-15. It's a big drop off.

I wonder if it was perhaps because he was played as a striker in 13-14, and maybe deeper in 14-15? Any Bundesliga experts?

From what I see in transfermarkt, there wasn't a noticeable change in where he was played - mostly AM in both seasons.

 

[Hansern]

Yeah, 22 in 37 in all comps in 2013-14. And just 10 in 36 in 2014-15. It's a big drop off.

I wonder if it was perhaps because he was played as a striker in 13-14, and maybe deeper in 14-15? Any Bundesliga experts?

14/15
TournamentAppsMinsGoalsAssistsYelRedSpGPS%AerialsWonMotMRating
Bundesliga 33 2918 7 10 5 - 2.9 72.7 2.3 5 7.79
Copa America Brazil 2(1) 173 1 - 1 - 1.7 78.5 0.3 - 6.50
DFB Pokal 3 N/A 3 N/A 1 - N/A N/A N/A N/A -
Int. Friendly Brazil 2(2) N/A 2 N/A - - N/A N/A N/A N/A -
Promotion/Relegation 2 N/A 2 N/A - - N/A N/A N/A N/A -
Total / Average 36 3091 15 10 7 0 2.8 73.2 2.1 5 7.68
SpG: Shots per gamePS%: Pass success percentageMotM: Man of the match
*Tournaments with detailed coverage
Playing Positions



PositionAppsGoalsAssistsRating
AMC (Attacking Midfielder - Centre) 27 6 9 7.89
FW (Forward - Centre) 3 1 0 6.98
ML (Midfielder - Left) 2 0 0 7.2
FWL (Forward - Left) 2 1 0 7.14
MC (Midfielder - Centre) 1 0 1 7.71
Sub (Substitute) 1 0 0 6.23
*Only tournaments with detailed coverage

Maybe Binny can dig up the 13/14 stats

 

[leftpeg]

Can you imagine this as next seasons lineup:

....................Migs
Clyne...Skrtel....Sakho.....Moreno
.............Illarramendi
....Milner...Kovacic.....Coutinho
...........Firmino...Sturridge

Obviously highly highly highly unlikely, just the bullshit players we're linked with, but would be awesome!

If Skrtel, Sakho and Moreno form three of our back four next season we're fucked.

 

[Hansern]

Nah, I wouldnt say that. It has just as much to do with how we line up in midfield.
If we are going to continue exposing our defenders in the same manner it doesnt matter who we play at the back.

 

[Hansern]

• MrBoywunder ‏@MrBoywunder 14m14 minutes ago
  Echo - LFC are continuing the push to sign Roberto Firmino – in a deal which could make him the Reds’ second most expensive player ever.
  
  
  MrBoywunder ‏@MrBoywunder 13m13 minutes ago
  Echo - An LFC delegation is at the tournament on general player watching duties but has already held a meeting with his representatives.
  
  
• MrBoywunder ‏@MrBoywunder 10m10 minutes ago
  Echo - Reports in Brazil suggest a deal is in place, although they are premature, LFC are hopeful of a deal for somewhere b/w £25-30m.

 

[Mystic]

Loved seeing him and Coutinho linking up in those videos!

 

[King Binny]

Yeah, 22 in 37 in all comps in 2013-14. And just 10 in 36 in 2014-15. It's a big drop off.

I wonder if it was perhaps because he was played as a striker in 13-14, and maybe deeper in 14-15? Any Bundesliga experts?

Hoffenheim's style of play hasn't been as gung ho as they were seasons ago.

(34 league games)
2014/15
49 scored, 55 conceded. (Firmino: 7 goals, 10 assists. 34.6% involvement)
Finished 8th.

2013/14
72 scored, 70 conceded. (Firmino: 16 goals, 12 assists. 38.8% involvement)
Finished 9th.
3rd best goalscoring side in the league behind Bayern Munich and Dortmund.

2012/13
42 scored, 67 conceded. (Firmino: 4 goals, 3 assists. 16.6% involvement)
Finished 16th. Stayed up after winning 2 legged relegation play off against Kaiserslautern (3rd in 2. Bundesliga).
Worst defence in the league (2nd worse was Werder Bremen who conceded 66).

 

[Mystic]

• MrBoywunder ‏@MrBoywunder 14m14 minutes ago
  Echo - LFC are continuing the push to sign Roberto Firmino – in a deal which could make him the Reds’ second most expensive player ever.
  
  
  MrBoywunder ‏@MrBoywunder 13m13 minutes ago
  Echo - An LFC delegation is at the tournament on general player watching duties but has already held a meeting with his representatives.
  
• MrBoywunder ‏@MrBoywunder 10m10 minutes ago
  Echo - Reports in Brazil suggest a deal is in place, although they are premature, LFC are hopeful of a deal for somewhere b/w £25-30m.

Wow, this is really gaining some heat, the club must be pushing this news, probably bracing us for accepting a Sterling bid.

 

[peterhague]

I thought he had a 30m euro release clause? Was that just bs?

 

[dmishra]

Hoffenheim's style of play hasn't been as gung ho as they were seasons ago.

(34 league games)
2014/15
49 scored, 55 conceded. (Firmino: 7 goals, 10 assists. 34.6% involvement)
Finished 8th.

2013/14
72 scored, 70 conceded. (Firmino: 16 goals, 12 assists. 38.8% involvement)
Finished 9th.
3rd best goalscoring side in the league behind Bayern Munich and Dortmund.

2012/13
42 scored, 67 conceded. (Firmino: 4 goals, 3 assists. 16.6% involvement)
Finished 16th. Stayed up after winning 2 legged relegation play off against Kaiserslautern (3rd in 2. Bundesliga).
Worst defence in the league (2nd worse was Werder Bremen who conceded 66).

Hmm, any particular reason? I noticed their manager is the same. Major changes in personnel?

 

[hamstrung_pigeon]

Hmm, any particular reason? I noticed their manager is the same. Major changes in personnel?

Again, not really; not as far as I can tell anyway. As a whole, Hoffenheim had 4 guys scoring in double digits the season before; last season - nobody. The highest was Volland, with 8.

One thing to look at is Firmino's shot stats, The key thing I can see... is the breakdown of his misses in 14/15 vs 13/14:

In 14/15,
- he converted only about 7% of his attempts between the 6-yard and 18-yard box; in 13/14, this was 20% (including 2 penalties)
- he missed 3 out of 11 shots in the 6-yard box (can be open play or setpiece; no breakdown available), while he nailed both attempts in 13/14.
- he put 5 shots against the post / bar, as opposed to 1 in 13/14.
- 31 out of 95 of his shots were blocked (not sure if blocks include keeper saves), compared to 23 of 93 in 13/14.

Does that mean 13/14 was a good year for him and 14/15 an unlucky one or one where his success gained him more defensive attention? Or was 14/15 the norm and 13/14 the exception? Buy him to find out! 😀

 

[Rosco]

Studsup is the only person who posts knowledgable stats stuff on this site.

Pay attention.

The answer is 13/14 was the exception.

 

[King Binny]

Hmm, any particular reason? I noticed their manager is the same. Major changes in personnel?

@Holle might be able to provide a more concrete answer. But in 2013/14:

[article]“This game hurts my balls,” said the Hoffenheim coach Markus Gisdol after his team’s 4-4 draw with Bremen, “if we had scored seven, they would have scored seven, too, today.”[/article]

70 goals conceded is joint 2nd worse that season.

 

[Hansern]

Knowing how good we are at closing these typen of deals its almost certain to go tits up.
But as usual I get excited and see him as our new nr 7.

 

[Hansern]

Studsup is the only person who posts knowledgable stats stuff on this site.

Pay attention.

The answer is 13/14 was the exception.

You should be tared and feathered after a comment like that.
Studsup is ace but Binny is in the same league.

 

[Rosco]

You should be tared and feathered after a comment like that.
Studsup is ace but Binny is in the same league.

Knowledgeable is what separates Studsup.

Bunny post some awful shit,like that percentage goals involved in. That's some of the dumbest shit ever.

 

[dmishra]

Studsup is the only person who posts knowledgable stats stuff on this site.

Pay attention.

The answer is 13/14 was the exception.

I'm concerned about the drop off in goals, but given that we have only 3 years of data to go by (the time he's been a first team footballer), I think it's difficult to say conclusively that 13/14 was the exception.

I don't think there's enough data to go by, and I don't think shot conversion stats are conclusive at all. It wouldn't explain the drop off in goals for the entire team.

A significant drop off in both goals scored and goals conceded for the entire team seems to me smacks of either an important change in personnel, or just a change to a more defensive approach for the team.

 

[peekay]

Studsup is the only person who posts knowledgable stats stuff on this site.

Pay attention.

The answer is 13/14 was the exception.

Ros. You act like some kind of stats guru. But how the hell can you make such strong assertions with three years of sample data - especially the first three years of a player as a first team footballer.

 

[King Binny]

You should be tared and feathered after a comment like that.
Studsup is ace but Binny is in the same league.

Knowledgeable is what separates Studsup.

Bunny post some awful shit,like that percentage goals involved in. That's some of the dumbest shit ever.

@Rosco is right. Like I've said ages ago, I'm just a ctrl c & ctrl v warrior. 😀 @studsup's posts have always been insightful.

(Oh, regarding that percentage goals involvement, blame Opta 😛).

 

[LeTallecWiz]

@King Binny is so humble ... He is King for a reason though ... Studsup is just Minister of Statistics

 

[Oncy]

Stats are wank.

 

[Rosco]

I'm concerned about the drop off in goals, but given that we have only 3 years of data to go by (the time he's been a first team footballer), I think it's difficult to say conclusively that 13/14 was the exception.

I don't think there's enough data to go by, and I don't think shot conversion stats are conclusive at all. It wouldn't explain the drop off in goals for the entire team.

A significant drop off in both goals scored and goals conceded for the entire team seems to me smacks of either an important change in personnel, or just a change to a more defensive approach for the team.

I'm hedging my bets because an AM that hits double figures regulalry is rare enough.

I think there's an argument to be made that 14/15 was an unlucky season for him. I'd like to see Hoffenheims expected goals stats though which would probably back up that argument.

Even if he's more 14/15 than 13/14 he's still a decent signing