What trajectory are you looking at?
We’ll see an increase in last seasons points total while Arsenal will see a drop off.
And I also disagree with some of your player rating comparisons - I’d have Gakpo and Diaz rated higher than Martinelli, wouldn’t have Harvertz higher than Jota and I think you’re under-rating Gravy,
So it boils down to Odegaard being a little bit better than Dom, and us needing a LB.
I don't know you can say arsenal with drop off though? They're going to invest, just like us. And they'll have their injured players back. If you think they would have had the same points total as they do now if they had saka, havertz and jesus back, then fair enough.