Goals, Goals, Glorious Goals -- Part 3

[hamstrung_pigeon]

@Frogfish started a thread last season on goal targets for our players, and I suggested that we could probably score 75 with our lot. That was a major embarrassing miss! Here's what I posted in that thread:

Conservative and reasonable targets for the various players and sections could look like this:

Centre forwards = 35 (Sturridge = 20; Borini / Remy + Lambert = 15)
Wide forwards / Attacking mids = 22 (Sterling = 10; Coutinho + Lallana + Markovic + Suso/Ibe/Teixeira = 12)
Centre mids = 12 (Allen + Henderson + Can + Lucas + Gerrard)
Defenders = 6
TOTAL = 75

Top that up with a few own goals and we could hit 80.

And the final tally of league goals from our players in 2014/15:

Centre forwards = 8 / 35 (Sturridge = 4 / 20; Borini + Balotelli + Lambert = 4 / 15)
Wide forwards / attacking mids = 19 / 22 (Sterling = 7 / 10; Coutinho + Lallana + Markovic = 12 / 12)
Centre mids = 18 / 12 (Allen + Henderson + Can + Lucas + Gerrard )
Defenders = 3 / 6
TOTAL = 52 / 75

Sturridge's injuries totally wrecked the projections, while the diabolical three-headed monster of Borini, Balotelli and Lambert didn't even make half of a soft 15-goal target for 3 players.

So on to projections for 15/16, and here's my conservative take:

CF = 26 (Benteke + Sturridge = 18; Ings + Origi = 8)
WF/AM = 19 (Coutinho + Firmino + Lallana + Ibe + Markovic)
CM = 13 (Milner + Henderson + Can + Lucas + Allen)
DF = 5
TOTAL = 63

Assumptions / Expectations:

-- Sturridge will struggle with some on-and-off injuries which keep him down to single digits, while Benteke puts in about 10 to 12 goals as we learn how to get the best from him.

-- Lallana will be the top scorer of the AMs / WFs. Coutinho won't - or will only marginally - improve his goal return if he persists with shooting mainly from outside the box. Despite some top class goals, that's always a low percentage shot.

-- Henderson is on penalty duty; otherwise I'd shift 4 goals from the CM spot to whichever area the penalty taker is from.

 

[StevieM]

I'd be very disappointed if, after spending close to £70m on attacking players, if we only managed to add 11 goals to last years complete failure.

I'd expect more goals from the forwards and more goals from the attacking mids.

 

[hamstrung_pigeon]

AMs / WFs don't typically score a lot in this league though, and only so many of them can play at one time, so I don't expect them to score a lot. Lallana with 6 to 7, Coutinho and Firmino with 4 to 5 each, while Markovic and Ibe combining for 3 or 4 is basically what I expect from this group. My 13/14 estimate for this group was pretty good, and I've no reason to believe this season will be different. This is without having watched Firmino, I must add, but I don't think he'll be coming in to pop in 8 to 10 in his first season here. Would be great if I'm wrong!

The strikers' return is a conservative estimate as I'm unsure Sturridge will be able to play more than 20 games. As it stands now, he's out until October, so that means he's missing close to 10 games already. I've got Benteke down for about 10 to 12 (sans penalties) as I'm not confident we'll manage to get the best from him right from the start, and Sturridge perhaps 6 to 8 if he plays about 20 games. Between Ings and Origi, I think Ings will bag the majority of the 8 goals I expect from them. I don't think Origi will have much of an impact in his first season here as a central striker.

 

[StevieM]

Strikers : Sturridge, Benteke, Ings & Origi- has to be 35 goals. One hitting 15, the other 2 hitting 10 and anything from Origi a bonus.

Attacking Midfield : Lallana, Coutinho, Firmino, Ibe, Markovic - has to be 25. One of the first 3 has to be hitting 10, with the other 2 adding a combined 10 and Ibe/Narkivuc adding a combined 5.

Midfield : Henderson, Milner, Can, Allen & Lucas - has to be 10 - provided mainly by Henderson & Milner - anything from the others us a bonus.

That leaves the defence providing about 5.

That puts us around 75 goals - I don't think we're making too 4 scoring much less, particularly given that Rodgers isn't setting the team out to grind out 1-0 victories.

If he can't get the strikers & attacking midfielders scoring regularly, regardless of injuries and loss of form (because he's got plenty of options) then he's going to be looking for a new job at some point in the next 12 months.

 

[hamstrung_pigeon]

I agree that 75 is a good target, and 63 goals isn't going to take us into the top four unless our defence is stellar and we concede 28 or something low like that (unlikely).

I think I should have worded it better - my original post was really about what I think the various guys / areas will be able to deliver this season, not what they should be delivering. At this point, unless Sturridge is fitter for more games or Benteke / Ings / Firmino has a brilliant debut season at the club, I'm not confident that we'll score 70 goals by ourselves. 63 with a few own goals to push us to somewhere around 66 to 68 is what I think is most likely.

 

[Mystic]

Yeh we really need a 15 goal plus striker this season, Benteke really needs to hit this target. I can also see Henderson and Milner surprising us goals wise, 15 between the two I reckon, however Coutinho, Firmino and Lallana wont get past 15-20, unless Firmino plays off the front man of course.

 

[HC]

Benteke will bag 20 plus league goals this season.

The rest will muddle through.

I'd expect lallana to hit double figures if he stays fit, coutinho too.

 

[Hansern]

If you look at previous years, anything from 65-73 goals is enough for a top 4 finish IF you've got a decent defensive record aswell.
I've got my doubts about our defensive record being better than the other top 4 challengers so we will probably have to outscore them again. That means we'll have to be in the top tier of goals scored.
Only one team scored more goals than 75 in the league last season and that was City.
We'll probably have to be around there seeing as we concede 10 + more goals than the other top teams.

75 goals is a lot. We'll have to see Benteke get 15, Sturridge 10, Ings 5, Origi 5, Coutinho 10, Firmino 10, Henderson 5, Milner 5, Lallana 5 and our defenders and youngsters the rest. Not impossible but....

 

[Mors]

I'd be flabbergasted if between Benteke and sicknote they only scored 18 goals between them. Finger in the wind for that one.

 

[Halmeister]

Benteke will score between 10-15 in the league
Sturridge around 10
Coutinho around 5-7ish
Lallana the same
Milner and Hendo 5-7ish too
A couple of own goals
Firmino about 7 or 8
The defence will get about 6 between them

Come back to this post at the end of the season

 

[Dirkus_Circus]

I'd be flabbergasted if between Benteke and sicknote they only scored 18 goals between them. Finger in the wind for that one.

I'm with you, even for a conservative estimate I think the number has to be at least 25.

 

[hamstrung_pigeon]

Benteke will score between 10-15 in the league
Sturridge around 10
Coutinho around 5-7ish
Lallana the same
Milner and Hendo 5-7ish too
A couple of own goals
Firmino about 7 or 8
The defence will get about 6 between them

Come back to this post at the end of the season

Milner has only scored 4 or more thrice in his career - 7 in 09/10, 4 in 12/13 and 5 last season. Most of the time he's been scoring 0 to 3. Of course, the past isn't a perfect predictor, but it'd suggest something about his shooting or the limited scoring opportunities in the positions he played. So I'm not too upbeat about him scoring 5 or more.

Benteke and Firmino are the ones who're hard to guess, along with Sturridge's appearances. The goal threat from the rest of the guys should be fairly predictable.