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Gen-Gen Depressing

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Frogfish said:
How could you miss my point Mark ?! Small picture. Look at the bigger picture .. the goals from the top four scorers from each of the Top 4 teams are almost identical.
Click to expand...

Eh? Apart from the fact that Chelsea, City and Arsenal's respective top scorers have 2-4 more goals. If people are going to make assumptions that based on Firmino having 4 goals in 10, he'll finish with 15-16 in 38. Or that having scored 24 goals as a team, we're on course to hit 100. Then we can make similar assumptions that while our top scorer might finish with 15-16, Chelsea's is on course to finish with 32, City's with 28 and Arsenal's with 24. Of course that's unlikely to happen, but it's about as relevant as any stat at this stage. We can't really surmise anything, other than what's already been said. We're spreading goals around, which is better, but you can actually have that AND a regular goalscorer. It's myopic to think they are mutually exclusive.
 
These projections are a bit of a nonsense. On this basis, we currently have 2.3 points per game which would give us 87 points over the season...enough to win the league in all bar 8 PL seasons. Factor into that the fact that we've had a really tough opening 10 games and they might as well give us the trophy now. Unfortunately, points, goals and results aren't linear so forecasting in this way, intriguing though it may be, is actually a pile of bollocks.
 
leftpeg said:
These projections are a bit of a nonsense. On this basis, we currently have 2.3 points per game which would give us 87 points over the season...enough to win the league in all bar 8 PL seasons. Factor into that the fact that we've had a really tough opening 10 games and they might as well give us the trophy now. Unfortunately, points, goals and results aren't linear so forecasting in this way, intriguing though it may be, is actually a pile of bollocks.
Click to expand...

I know Peggy, but it seems it's been used throughout this thread to prove the arguement either way. Like I say, it doesn't prove anything, least of all at this early stage. We can only really go off what these players generally get. I know players have ups and downs, that they have peaks, etc, but it doesn't take a genius either to see what players respective talents & abilities are (or aren't) infront of goal.
 
mark1975 said:
Eh? Apart from the fact that Chelsea, City and Arsenal's respective top scorers have 2-4 more goals. If people are going to make assumptions that based on Firmino having 4 goals in 10, he'll finish with 15-16 in 38. Or that having scored 24 goals as a team, we're on course to hit 100. Then we can make similar assumptions that while our top scorer might finish with 15-16, Chelsea's is on course to finish with 32, City's with 28 and Arsenal's with 24. Of course that's unlikely to happen, but it's about as relevant as any stat at this stage. We can't really surmise anything, other than what's already been said. We're spreading goals around, which is better, but you can actually have that AND a regular goalscorer. It's myopic to think they are mutually exclusive.
Click to expand...
Did anyone say you can't have both ? I didn't. Did I suggest Aguero whoever won't hit those numbers ? I didn't. I most certainly didn't suggest we'd hit a 100 (or anywhere even remotely close to it !) either, in fact to the contrary ...etc. etc.

You seem to have made an awful lot of assumptions on a post I made simply refuting, with empirical data, Brendan's intimation that we need a 20+ goalscorer to win the league.
 
leftpeg said:
These projections are a bit of a nonsense. On this basis, we currently have 2.3 points per game which would give us 87 points over the season...enough to win the league in all bar 8 PL seasons. Factor into that the fact that we've had a really tough opening 10 games and they might as well give us the trophy now. Unfortunately, points, goals and results aren't linear so forecasting in this way, intriguing though it may be, is actually a pile of bollocks.
Click to expand...
Which projections ? I don't see any projections. I see I gave an example of why a 20 goal a season striker may not be needed ..... and with the empirical evidence to back that up. Of course that doesn't mean that the season will go that way because as you say, nothing in football is linear. Which is why I said all conjecture .. which you and Mark seem to have blithely dismissed.
 
Frogfish said:
Did anyone say you can't have both ? I didn't. Did I suggest Aguero whoever won't hit those numbers ? I didn't. I most certainly didn't suggest we'd hit a 100 (or anywhere even remotely close to it !) either, in fact to the contrary ...etc. etc.

You seem to have made an awful lot of assumptions on a post I made simply refuting, with empirical data, Brendan's intimation that we need a 20+ goalscorer to win the league.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure what your point was then Froggy. You're using a small sample data to say that we've all scored roughly the same. Over the course of the season that will change, and that was generally the crux of the point. When we hit poor form, when games are tight, when we lose players to injury etc and that breaks up the "system", that's when you want reliable matchwinners.
 
Frogfish said:
Did anyone say you can't have both ? I didn't. Did I suggest Aguero whoever won't hit those numbers ? I didn't. I most certainly didn't suggest we'd hit a 100 (or anywhere even remotely close to it !) either, in fact to the contrary ...etc. etc.

You seem to have made an awful lot of assumptions on a post I made simply refuting, with empirical data, Brendan's intimation that we need a 20+ goalscorer to win the league.
Click to expand...

It's not 'intimation'

I merely pointed out that all of the recent Premiership winners have had one.

If you wish to ignore those facts, that is your prerogative, but it seems foolish to do so.
 
mark1975 said:
I'm not sure what your point was then Froggy. You're using a small sample data to say that we've all scored roughly the same. Over the course of the season that will change, and that was generally the crux of the point. When we hit poor form, when games are tight, when we lose players to injury etc and that breaks up the "system", that's when you want reliable matchwinners.
Click to expand...
I gave empirical evidence from a large data sample as to why a goalscorer of 20+ is not always needed and also showed that so far this season multiple scorers across the team (also far less likely to fall victim to injury than a single striker of course) are about the equal of any team relying on one or two out and out goalscorers.

That was my whole point in refuting Brendan's virtual assertion that 'we don't have a 20+ goals a season striker hence we can't win the league'. As for 'when we hit poor form' don't top strikers go on poor runs without scoring too ? Or 'when games are tight' isn't it a case of 4 being more likely to score than 1 who's possibly being marked out of the game, or off-form ? You are depicting scenarios that can be applied equally.

I have not said I don't want a goal-scorer that will score 20+ in the PL a season, I've said that what we've got could still be good enough to win the league and that it's been done before. I'm not sure what is so controversial about that.
 
manwithnoname said:
It's not 'intimation'

I merely pointed out that all of the recent Premiership winners have had one.

If you wish to ignore those facts, that is your prerogative, but it seems foolish to do so.
Click to expand...
And I've given you the data that in fact, you are mistaken, and not all recent PL champions have one (unless you want to only include the last 5 PL titles as your 'statistically not viable' sample).
 
Frogfish said:
And I've given you the data that in fact, you are mistaken, and not all recent PL champions have one (unless you want to only include the last 5 PL titles as your 'statistically not viable' sample).
Click to expand...

No you haven't.

Nearly Every title winning side has a player (or two) who scores in the region of 20.

There's one example of Chelsea, I think, who won it once with Drogba scoring less than that.
 
mark1975 said:
I know Peggy, but it seems it's been used throughout this thread to prove the arguement either way. Like I say, it doesn't prove anything, least of all at this early stage. We can only really go off what these players generally get. I know players have ups and downs, that they have peaks, etc, but it doesn't take a genius either to see what players respective talents & abilities are (or aren't) infront of goal.
Click to expand...

I think its more being used as an example that we have more goalscorers in the team now and might achieve our ambitions without having the top scorer in the PL in our side this season.
Trying to guess how many goals we'll score is a bit pointless but Firmino could get 12-16 more goals in the next 28 games. Its not impossible.
 
manwithnoname said:
No you haven't.

Nearly Every title winning side has a player (or two) who scores in the region of 20.

There's one example of Chelsea, I think, who won it once with Drogba scoring less than that.
Click to expand...
Yes I have. Go back and read my post on the subject. And going back further still it was won twice more without their top scorer scoring 20+, 18 each time, by Arsenal and United again. So in the PL era it's been won 5 times by teams with a top scorer of 20 or less.

And my point was that whether it is 18 or 20 that more goals spread across the team could compensate and the data is there to prove it can be done.
 
Last edited:
I'm sure there was a time way back when teams rarely ever won the league without 2 strikers upfront, and a ye olde Brendan back then would have been bleating on saying it's impossible to win the league without 2 strikers up front, and wheeling out all the teams that had won it with 2.
 
Oliver Twist said:
the times, they are a-changin

Said some guy at some point.
Click to expand...

Make no mistake, the times now are worse. Before we had Rush or Fowler getting close to 30 goals, and other players still getting double figures.

These times we are happy with just partially one of those and in continual fear of having neither.
 
Mors said:
I'm sure there was a time way back when teams rarely ever won the league without 2 strikers upfront, and a ye olde Brendan back then would have been bleating on saying it's impossible to win the league without 2 strikers up front, and wheeling out all the teams that had won it with 2.
Click to expand...

Moribund times.
 
If anyone else had made this thread, there would be infinitely less pissy point scoring posts
 
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