This is true. I think you're being crucified due to your beliefs. Maybe in 2,000 years you'll be proven right .. or not.
Firmino/Striker Discussion
- Thread starter FoxForceFive
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I see Super Mario already has 7 in France. If we only kept him...
Your entire argument is they can't score that many goals because they never have? Thats a very weak argument.
Fwiw, barring serious injury, I expect both Firmino and Coutinho to end up on about fifteen goals, with Coutinho currently playing at the top of his game, Firmino having had a season to settle, and the team looking so good going forward, there's no reason why they can't make those numbers.
Further note, the only reason I exclude Mane from this is because he's away at the ACONs for a month.
Sounds like a fairly strong argument to me. Well if you said are unlikely to, rather than cant, it'd be a fairly solid argument.
Well, people wouldn't have a pop at him for not scoring when he's put in a brilliant performace, because he's scored 57 goals in 101 games for us. So history tells us he's a prolific goalscorer. Strikers generally get shit for not scoring enough goals if they have a history of err, not scoring enough goals (not that I think Firmino should be getting any stick in particular, but you get the jist).
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It's a gross oversimplification that ignores many other factors, it might make sense if they were all 30, but Coutinho, Firmino and Mane all 24 (Firmino just turned 25), they're clearly just about to hit their peak, and are playing in a side built around their strengths, its nonsense to write them off as having already scored the most amount of goals that they ever could.
Thats the whole point. Give him credit for a Fantastic performance as a striker the same way he gets stick for a lacklustre performance against United. Sturridge has scored plenty in the past... It doesn't make him look like a 20 a season striker at the moment... But I dont care if he doesn't score against United if he put in a good performance.
Based on the way we have played this season it is a poor argument. Suarez didn't score 30 a season based on thats what he did every season. He developed together with his team into a 30 goal a season player.
Em if he turned into Suarez then happy would be like understated. We would party every night and it would be like a non stop we dream.
Yeah, it could happen. But usually people don't score huge amounts more from season to season. Going on previous seasons and stats as an indicator of future performance works quite well. It'd definitely not a poor argument, to do that.
If it is any comfort, Firmino might be rester against Saints away as he comes over from Brasil....
Firmino scored 16 goals and had 11 assists (33 apps) for Hoffenheim in the 13/14 season.
Mane scored 11 goals and had 6 assists (30 apps) for Southampton in the 15/16 season.
Wijnaldum scored 11 goals and had 5 assists (36 apps) for Newcastle in the 15/16 season.
Coutinho scored 8 goals and had 5 assists (24 apps) for Liverpool in the 15/16 season.
Lallana scored 9 goals and had 5 assists (37 apps) for Southampton in the 13/14 season.
Origi scored 8 goals and had 3 assists (22 apps) for Lille in the 14/15 season.
I'd like think that the way we are playing that all or most of the above will improve on those figures, especially with more games. There are plenty of goals from all over the pitch in this team with virtually everyone capable of chipping in with 2-3 goals. And Sturridge will get more than his fair share too.
Really?
Suarez went from 11 league goals in 2011-12 to 23 league goals in the 2012-13. Torres went from 20+ per season striker at LFC to a non-threat in the space of a season. Sturridge's haul in the last 5 seasons: 11, 11, 22, 4, 8. Balotelli had 14 goals for Milan the season before he joined, then scored only 1 with us. This is just LFC's main strikers in the last few years, you can make your own comparisons with other teams' strikers, but I guess the general picture will be broadly similar.
The more you look at the stats, the clearer it becomes that the "historical" numbers of any individual player are a terrible predictor of the future performance, while the overall team performance in any given season is a much more important factor. For instance 2013-14 season was a high-water mark for many LFC players, even someone like Skrtel – a classic case of rising tide lifting all boats. Conversely, when the team as a whole is struggling for goals, your "20-goal striker" will almost certainly produce a paltry return. That's why all those threads people start before the season trying to predict every player's goal total, based on what they are "expected" to score, are usually absolute rubbish. Football is different from basketball where a great player will always find a route to the basket all by himself – in football you will generally have a chance to score only if your teammates create this chance for you, so it's no wonder that the individual numbers heavily fluctuate with the team's performance.
So to conclude, Firmino's or Coutinho's numbers last season mean fuck all if we are now scoring 0.75 more goals per game (2.4 now compared to 1.65 last season). If we can sustain that rate of scoring (and that's a big if), all the players, even defenders and fringe players, will have much better stats than their previous numbers suggest.
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The rising tide raises all boats. I like that.
Firmino is a good player and we are a good team with him in the side. We all know that with a better forward, we'd be... well... better.
The problem we have is that we still find ourselves in the position of wanting / needing a Sanchez or Suarez type up front and as we know, that's a really tough ask. If that sort of player somehow ended up at Liverpool then I'm pretty sure Firmino would find himself second in line and nobody would be particularly concerned about it.
I guess it becomes a bit more interesting when we consider the players we already have at the club.
Sturridge at his best is easily a better striker than anyone else we have on our books right now but he's not getting into the side because he lacks tenacity and work-rate. If we were getting the Sturridge of a few years ago I'd probably put him in ahead of Firmino and adjust accordingly. I just don't think either Sturridge or Klopp operate that way - both seem to want unconditional support before committing. And there are still question marks over Sturridge's form.
I really like Origi and would love to see him get a chance to see whether he can step up as he's got everything in his locker - pace, power, height, technique. The issue is that he looks a bit of a trier, a bit meek. I think the goals would come with more confidence and arrogance. Either way, Klopp doesn't seem inclined to let him learn on the job right now and I'm not sure I would be either.
So all in all, I see why Klopp opts for Firmino. He's less likely to average out at a superstar 9/10 over the course of the season but he minimizes risk in a pretty shakey team that's largely set up to win games by being better than the sum of it's parts.
I think we'll reassess in the summer when we can hopefully strengthen the teams foundations further.
The problem we have is that we still find ourselves in the position of wanting / needing a Sanchez or Suarez type up front and as we know, that's a really tough ask. If that sort of player somehow ended up at Liverpool then I'm pretty sure Firmino would find himself second in line and nobody would be particularly concerned about it.
I guess it becomes a bit more interesting when we consider the players we already have at the club.
Sturridge at his best is easily a better striker than anyone else we have on our books right now but he's not getting into the side because he lacks tenacity and work-rate. If we were getting the Sturridge of a few years ago I'd probably put him in ahead of Firmino and adjust accordingly. I just don't think either Sturridge or Klopp operate that way - both seem to want unconditional support before committing. And there are still question marks over Sturridge's form.
I really like Origi and would love to see him get a chance to see whether he can step up as he's got everything in his locker - pace, power, height, technique. The issue is that he looks a bit of a trier, a bit meek. I think the goals would come with more confidence and arrogance. Either way, Klopp doesn't seem inclined to let him learn on the job right now and I'm not sure I would be either.
So all in all, I see why Klopp opts for Firmino. He's less likely to average out at a superstar 9/10 over the course of the season but he minimizes risk in a pretty shakey team that's largely set up to win games by being better than the sum of it's parts.
I think we'll reassess in the summer when we can hopefully strengthen the teams foundations further.
I really like Ings but being honest I'd say he'll be moved on. Possibly even in Jan.
I'd be really disappointed. He should be given a decent chance and as much as I have high hopes for Origi, right now I'd put Danny above him in the pecking order.
Why?
Because his all round game is better than Origi's.
Is it better than Firmino's though?
Sturridge was, maybe still is, a 60M player, Origi we hope might become one. What does Ings offer that would make the trade worthwhile?
It's discussions like these that make it a great forum. First many thanks to Fox for taking the initiative to create this thread; I have nearly read all the responses, but I think there is one that sums up why we are having this discussion more than anything else - it really is not Firminio's fault. Everything has been expressed by Dantes in his initial response - its those missed chances in the games we have had that is causing this underlying worry:-
THE MISSED CHANCES !!!
Fuck me - I really feel we are going to humiliate some team soon and dear Lord if not Watford; I hope it is Man United at Old Trafford with the end result being we send Jose over the edge.
Seriously - if the discussion is about Sturridge as the striker vs Firminio then there is really no comparison because Sturridge is a striker - a good one based on "ONE" season of success for us. We also witnessed on Tuesday last week that he is also capable of missing when a chance presents itself, no different from our current front men. I actually don't think he justifies his place in our team - and also on the bench. He was given a chance against United - but was completely ineffective - and the fact that he has not scored in the league shows that he is limited now - there seems to be no will in him to force the issue like we saw him do on Tuesday for his first goal. I think it would suite Klopp NOT to have him at the club and let Divok Origi develop and also gives Ings a chance.
But I think this discussion would not exist if we had a few six goal plus wins to talk about because that is what should have happened given the number of chances we create. What we did to Arsenal in those 15 odd minutes is something we have had the chance to do against nearly every team we have played this season but for longer. I feel our finishing in front of goal is below par overall.
THE MISSED CHANCES !!!
Fuck me - I really feel we are going to humiliate some team soon and dear Lord if not Watford; I hope it is Man United at Old Trafford with the end result being we send Jose over the edge.
Seriously - if the discussion is about Sturridge as the striker vs Firminio then there is really no comparison because Sturridge is a striker - a good one based on "ONE" season of success for us. We also witnessed on Tuesday last week that he is also capable of missing when a chance presents itself, no different from our current front men. I actually don't think he justifies his place in our team - and also on the bench. He was given a chance against United - but was completely ineffective - and the fact that he has not scored in the league shows that he is limited now - there seems to be no will in him to force the issue like we saw him do on Tuesday for his first goal. I think it would suite Klopp NOT to have him at the club and let Divok Origi develop and also gives Ings a chance.
But I think this discussion would not exist if we had a few six goal plus wins to talk about because that is what should have happened given the number of chances we create. What we did to Arsenal in those 15 odd minutes is something we have had the chance to do against nearly every team we have played this season but for longer. I feel our finishing in front of goal is below par overall.
I also want to point out that the Jekyll-and-Hyde Firmino, the player who you could see in the first 5 minutes of the game whether he is going to have a good game or not, has disappeared so far this season and has been replaced by Firmino 2.0, the consistent one with shit ponytail. I forgot who made this criticism about "good Firmino" vs "bad Firmino" last season (Brendan? keniget?), but at the time I thought it was quite fair – even though I like the player.
I think Firmino has a similar trait to Suarez in that he is about equally likely to attempt a trick that has a 10% chance of success as something that has 60% – he doesn't take the easy and the predictable route and has a relatively high rate of failure, but it also makes players of this type incredibly stressful to defend and forces mistakes, because humans are intimidated by unpredictability (a polar opposite of this kind of player would be someone like Michael Owen – always shooting in the far corner hard and low every time, boring but effective in its way).
I think it's difficult for players of this type to achieve consistency – by definition if you keep trying to do something outrageous, there will be days you will make a total fool of yourself. The solution is to emphasize hard work – this way the player knows that even on a bad day he can be useful to the team by his work-rate and energy. That's exactly what happened with Firmino – over the course of the pre-season he's completely bought into Klopp's ideas and gone from a player who's been blowing hot and cold all of last season to the most reliable part of the attacking mechanism. That may be the main reason why he's been a constant in the team ever since – Klopp knows that Coutinho or Mane can be absolutely inspired in some games and quiet in others, but Firmino will always give 100% and can be the anchor of our attacking game.
I think Firmino has a similar trait to Suarez in that he is about equally likely to attempt a trick that has a 10% chance of success as something that has 60% – he doesn't take the easy and the predictable route and has a relatively high rate of failure, but it also makes players of this type incredibly stressful to defend and forces mistakes, because humans are intimidated by unpredictability (a polar opposite of this kind of player would be someone like Michael Owen – always shooting in the far corner hard and low every time, boring but effective in its way).
I think it's difficult for players of this type to achieve consistency – by definition if you keep trying to do something outrageous, there will be days you will make a total fool of yourself. The solution is to emphasize hard work – this way the player knows that even on a bad day he can be useful to the team by his work-rate and energy. That's exactly what happened with Firmino – over the course of the pre-season he's completely bought into Klopp's ideas and gone from a player who's been blowing hot and cold all of last season to the most reliable part of the attacking mechanism. That may be the main reason why he's been a constant in the team ever since – Klopp knows that Coutinho or Mane can be absolutely inspired in some games and quiet in others, but Firmino will always give 100% and can be the anchor of our attacking game.
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One question, sturridge plays who comes off?
Mane
*pins picture to the wall - this will be me after I lose another 10kgs (minus the hair)*Big fat fucking melt
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