[quote author=dmishra link=topic=44931.msg1362365#msg1362365 date=1310218586]
[quote author=FoxForceFive link=topic=44931.msg1362305#msg1362305 date=1310210935]
Whilst I agree 25m is way too high, 'average no name' is fucking offensive & way ott.
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It's about as accurate a description I can think of. He's 27, played his entire career for mid-table Premiership sides with a production comparable to the likes of Leon Osman and Morten Gamst Pedersen. Who're both average no-names.
As for his value, a good yardstick for comparison is Kuyt, who we bought when he was 26 for about 10m. Now considering his Downing's productivity over the last 5 years has been inferior to Kuyt's and he has no significant advantage in terms of either pace or skill over Kuyt (or whatever little he has gets negated by Kuyt's superior work rate), I'd say his value is about 6-8m. We're looking to pay something in the range of two and a half times that amount. I understand that you need to pay a premium for English players and I can accept that in case of players like Carroll and Henderson who have the 'potential' to be worth what they cost over the course of their entire career (provided of course they stick around). I see absolutely no reason to do that for Downing, when he will offer us, at the best 3-4 years of average productivity (read about 25 goals and 25 assists).
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Kuyt's a shit yardstick, though:
1. as you say, he's not english, and importantly came from an inferior foreign league where success is no great indicator of success in the PL, hence prices are depressed because of that greater element of risk.
2. the trasfer was 5 years ago now. prices have moved on a fair bit since then.
personally i'd say downing's 'worth' around £12-14m.