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Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?

Let's say you have 100 mutations right now, spreading through a population of 1000. Let's say 400 of the people are not vaccinated, 600 people are vaccinated.

In the unvaccinated population, all the mutations would all be equally likely to infect, meaning all 100 will be present, more or less 4 cases of each. So the mutation distribution hasn't changed, it hasn't been filtered and naturally selected for.

In the vaccinated population, let's say 400 have no protection from infection, so again all 100 mutations will be present if you took a sample from them. So far so good.

Now you have the 200 vaccinated people, who do have protection from infection. One third of the mutations are able to evade that protection. So if you take a sample of this, you'll only find 30 of the mutations, the other 70 have been filtered out.

So you started off with a clean distribution of 100 mutations. Now you find in 20% of the population, you only have 30 mutations. So those 30 mutations are now over-represented in the total population of 1000 people.

On you go to round two of the infections. Those 30 mutations are now even more over-represented. So on and so forth you know how exponential processes work.

So what I'm telling you is that those 30 mutations will contain a higher proportion of mutations that cause death than the original 100 did. Because that is how mutations, viruses and vaccines work. It is inevitable.

And could that be why more deaths occured in vaccinated people than unvaccinated from the Delta Variant ?

Because Ireland is now showing that you're twice as likely to be hospitalised from the Delta variant if you're vaccinated.
 
I'm all in favour of vaccine passports. I don't think these vaccines should be allowed to travel undocumented. They should have to follow the same procedures to get into a country that I would have to.
 
Maybe for you but possibly not for young people (I mean younger than myself too). A member of JCVI has also said it may be safer for younger people to attain immunity through getting the virus rather than vaccination. It's all about relative risk. If a young person feels vaccine is a riskier option that is their choice. Once you have your vaccine you should be protected. Is the logic not that unvaccinated people are only a danger to each other? We never had a flu vaccine passport and I know this is more contagious and dangerous but we have never had nearly the coverage in fly vaccines that we have now in COVID vaccines. I support it as a short term measure but if it goes on beyond the middle of next year it's ridiculous.

I don't have skepticism of the approval process but there will be long term trials of these vaccines for years. There is a small chance of some long term issues.

Vaccinated people can still die, especially if they are old, so it is in their interest to avoid exposure at all costs by insisting everyone else is jabbed.

Where they descend into idiocy is believing that masks will help, and believing the vaccine will prevent exposure, because respectable scientists told them it would. Fools.
 
And could that be why more deaths occured in vaccinated people than unvaccinated from the Delta Variant ?

Because Ireland is now showing that you're twice as likely to be hospitalised from the Delta variant if you're vaccinated.

It could be if the delta variant that had its way gorging upon AZ in india mutated in a way that gave an advantage over the vaccine proteins and simulatanously led to an unintended disadvantage over naturally produced anti-bodies.

But there is more chance of me taking the knee than this being studied by scientists.
 
Sorry but I don't agree it's as simple as "if a young person feels vaccine is a riskier option that is their choice". Any choice they make is going to directly affect everyone else, and not just in their immediate circle either. It's been said many times that none of us is safe until we're all safe.

If they decide that vaccine is less safe then that is entirely their choice. If a vaccine is less safe than COVID for a young person they shouldn't have to take it to protect an older person. If you are protected by your vaccine and a young person becomes immune through exposure then you're both immune. I know there are worries of breakthrough cases in vaccinated people but young people shouldn't have to put themselves at risk (if that end up being the case) to protect those breakthrough cases.
 
If they decide that vaccine is less safe then that is entirely their choice. If a vaccine is less safe than COVID for a young person they shouldn't have to take it to protect an older person. If you are protected by your vaccine and a young person becomes immune through exposure then you're both immune. I know there are worries of breakthrough cases in vaccinated people but young people shouldn't have to put themselves at risk (if that end up being the case) to protect those breakthrough cases.

The argument that someone must be vaccinated for a different vaccinated person to be safe kinda undermines the efficacy of the vaccine.
 
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I wouldn't say pretty standard. There are more countries without it than with it.

Nah, between smallpox, polio, yellow fever and a few more, the majority of countries had one at some point or another. It's pretty reasonable to restrict movements based on whether you are infected or have a higher likelihood to be infectious. If we get to the stage where it's not as big a risk, rules should and would be adjusted. It's not a big human rights violation that some are trying to make out, it's just prudent.
 
And could that be why more deaths occured in vaccinated people than unvaccinated from the Delta Variant ?

Because Ireland is now showing that you're twice as likely to be hospitalised from the Delta variant if you're vaccinated.
I guess the MSM are lying again then because last week I saw a figure of 98% of deaths in the UK were from people not fully vaccinated.
 
Nah, between smallpox, polio, yellow fever and a few more, the majority of countries had one at some point or another. It's pretty reasonable to restrict movements based on whether you are infected or have a higher likelihood to be infectious. If we get to the stage where it's not as big a risk, rules should and would be adjusted. It's not a big human rights violation that some are trying to make out, it's just prudent.

All of those infections would fuck anyone up if they contracted it, and all their associated vaccines were developed by trustworthy scientists who took their time to do their research properly, and the results are there to inspect over decades of data. That's pretty different from force vaccinating young people with a potentially lethal dose of dirty sanchez special new and improved highly experimental brew.
 
If they decide that vaccine is less safe then that is entirely their choice. If a vaccine is less safe than COVID for a young person they shouldn't have to take it to protect an older person. If you are protected by your vaccine and a young person becomes immune through exposure then you're both immune. I know there are worries of breakthrough cases in vaccinated people but young people shouldn't have to put themselves at risk (if that end up being the case) to protect those breakthrough cases.

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Sorurce is PHE.

And "Potential harms" are even lower for mRNA vaccines. It's anti-vax nonsense to suggest young adults are only getting the vaccine to protect older people.
 
All this over something that has an average age of death of like 81, while 99.8% of people recover from it too... if they even notice they've had it. Then you could probably start examining that figure further with the dubious died from/with covid stats, and the died within 28 days figures.

I know it's not a flu, yada yada yada, but out of interest I looked up flu deaths from a few years ago, and there was one winter around 2017 or 2018, where 1800 people were dying a day in the UK. We weren't locking down and restricting the entire population then, or forcing them to inject themselves with god knows what.

I was also sent a picture, I don't know how true it is, and I don't know how to upload it, but in Israel, there's a much, much higher rate of hospitalisations and deaths amongst vaccinated people.

Chances are, this is going to be around forever now, mutating and shifting each year, like flu does. Do we keep locking down millions of people for the sake of a handful of cases, like in Australia? Or do we learn to live with it and protect the vulnerable without impacting on privacy and rights, and without bringing in Orwellian, dystopian measures just to maybe protect (most likely) a few old, fatties from something else that can kill them now?
 
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Sorurce is PHE.

And "Potential harms" are even lower for mRNA vaccines. It's anti-vax nonsense to suggest young adults are only getting the vaccine to protect older people.

I suppose "high exposure risk" means you're sampling people who are more likely to get infected than the general population, but no more likely to suffer an adverse reaction to the vaccine. But because you're signalling the correct virtue in the infographic it's all perfectly fine, not nonsense, it's science.
 
I guess the MSM are lying again then because last week I saw a figure of 98% of deaths in the UK were from people not fully vaccinated.

40% of hospitalisations are vaccinated. They originally said it was 60%, so fuck knows what the actual number is.
 
And could that be why more deaths occured in vaccinated people than unvaccinated from the Delta Variant ?

Because Ireland is now showing that you're twice as likely to be hospitalised from the Delta variant if you're vaccinated.

That'd be expected, Delta variant or not. All the high risk people are vaccinated, who are by definition more likely to be hospitalised. Those that aren't vaccinated are low risk and less likely to end up in hospital.

There'll also be a point where more vaccinated people are in hospital(if that isn't the case already) which is just due to higher % of the population being vaccinated.
 
That'd be expected, Delta variant or not. All the high risk people are vaccinated, who are by definition more likely to be hospitalised. Those that aren't vaccinated are low risk and less likely to end up in hospital.

There'll also be a point where more vaccinated people are in hospital(if that isn't the case already) which is just due to higher % of the population being vaccinated.

This is pretty easy to factor out using the respective probabilities, then you've isolated the inherent difference in risk between an unvaccinated and vaccinated person. I would presume that this was done, solely because the people making the claims are more likely to be autistic and so would not overlook any detail much less such an obvious one. Perhaps you can confirm.
 
That was 1 vaccination no? I thought the double vaccinations with at least 2 weeks clear was a low %

I dunno. I try not to pay attention to the news, if you can't already tell. I just saw vaccinated. I do know, however, that I know of 3 people in the last week or so who have had both jabs have tested positive.
 
People are still gonna get it even once they have had the vaccine, but they are less likely to have to go to hospital and less likely to die, and that was the point.

If everyone who has Coronavirus is only going to get a reasonably mild illness and then recover then it won’t really matter as much any longer.
 
That'd be expected, Delta variant or not. All the high risk people are vaccinated, who are by definition more likely to be hospitalised. Those that aren't vaccinated are low risk and less likely to end up in hospital.

There'll also be a point where more vaccinated people are in hospital(if that isn't the case already) which is just due to higher % of the population being vaccinated.

But if the vaccine was as effective as advertised the vaccinated ones shouldn't be getting sick at all and if at all it would be minor.
 
925c57e005ea0169c351b496c4564317.jpg


Sorurce is PHE.

And "Potential harms" are even lower for mRNA vaccines. It's anti-vax nonsense to suggest young adults are only getting the vaccine to protect older people.

Not necessarily. I've already said I'm not anti vax and had my first dose (in mid 30s). Somebody from the JVCI has said it may be safer for young people to get their immunity through transmission. As far as I have read the youngest person to die with COVID in Ireland was a 16 year old with underlying conditions last year. It's incredibly sad but he/she would/should be offered a vaccine this year. I don't think many young people have died with it. They've stopped publishing the age profile of deaths in Ireland, at least partly due a recent cyber attack on our health service. Young people getting vaccinated is for others as much as themselves.
 
People are still gonna get it even once they have had the vaccine, but they are less likely to have to go to hospital and less likely to die, and that was the point.

If everyone who has Coronavirus is only going to get a reasonably mild illness and then recover then it won’t really matter as much any longer.

That's what was happening to the overwhelming majority anyway before we started forcing people to inject themselves with God knows what.
 
Not necessarily. I've already said I'm not anti vax and had my first dose (in mid 30s). Somebody from the JVCI has said it may be safer for young people to get their immunity through transmission. As far as I have read the youngest person to die with COVID in Ireland was a 16 year old with underlying conditions last year. It's incredibly sad but he/she would/should be offered a vaccine this year. I don't think many young people have died with it. They've stopped publishing the age profile of deaths in Ireland, at least partly due a recent cyber attack on our health service. Young people getting vaccinated is for others as much as themselves.

In the UK, just under 700 people under the age of 60 without underlying conditions have died from it.
 
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