More than probability.... probably.
Let's say you have 100 mutations right now, spreading through a population of 1000. Let's say 400 of the people are not vaccinated, 600 people are vaccinated.
In the unvaccinated population, all the mutations would all be equally likely to infect, meaning all 100 will be present, more or less 4 cases of each. So the mutation distribution hasn't changed, it hasn't been filtered and naturally selected for.
In the vaccinated population, let's say 400 have no protection from infection, so again all 100 mutations will be present if you took a sample from them. So far so good.
Now you have the 200 vaccinated people, who do have protection from infection. One third of the mutations are able to evade that protection. So if you take a sample of this, you'll only find 30 of the mutations, the other 70 have been filtered out.
So you started off with a clean distribution of 100 mutations. Now you find in 20% of the population, you only have 30 mutations. So those 30 mutations are now over-represented in the total population of 1000 people.
On you go to round two of the infections. Those 30 mutations are now even more over-represented. So on and so forth you know how exponential processes work.
So what I'm telling you is that those 30 mutations will contain a higher proportion of mutations that cause death than the original 100 did. Because that is how mutations, viruses and vaccines work. It is inevitable.
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