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Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?

More than probability.... probably.

Let's say you have 100 mutations right now, spreading through a population of 1000. Let's say 400 of the people are not vaccinated, 600 people are vaccinated.

In the unvaccinated population, all the mutations would all be equally likely to infect, meaning all 100 will be present, more or less 4 cases of each. So the mutation distribution hasn't changed, it hasn't been filtered and naturally selected for.

In the vaccinated population, let's say 400 have no protection from infection, so again all 100 mutations will be present if you took a sample from them. So far so good.

Now you have the 200 vaccinated people, who do have protection from infection. One third of the mutations are able to evade that protection. So if you take a sample of this, you'll only find 30 of the mutations, the other 70 have been filtered out.

So you started off with a clean distribution of 100 mutations. Now you find in 20% of the population, you only have 30 mutations. So those 30 mutations are now over-represented in the total population of 1000 people.

On you go to round two of the infections. Those 30 mutations are now even more over-represented. So on and so forth you know how exponential processes work.

So what I'm telling you is that those 30 mutations will contain a higher proportion of mutations that cause death than the original 100 did. Because that is how mutations, viruses and vaccines work. It is inevitable.
 
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No point in having a vaccine if it doesn't work.

That said.. hospitalisations need to remain low.

Nightclubs have been told they need to implement COVID passports by end of September. I'm a fan of that decision.

You would think it would make more sense to have the vaccine passport thing in place now and then remove it in 3 months time when so many more people are vaccinated.
 
You would think it would make more sense to have the vaccine passport thing in place now and then remove it in 3 months time when so many more people are vaccinated.

It'd make more sense to say you need at least 1 vaccine from now... and 2 from end of September.
 
We're already in the grip of a third wave. Sensible people will remain cautious, but 'Freedom Day' gives full allowances for arseholes to spread it around further.

There's a complete failure by the government to accept that they are solely responsible for the Delta variant, and the failure to extend restrictions has come about entirely from an internal pressure in the Tory party. The move is against public health guidance. It's against the overwhelming advice from scientists. The whole lifting of the restrictions is a complete folly.

Already in Knowsley there's more young people in hospital with COVID than has ever been seen throughout this pandemic, because they are unvaccinated and the delta-variant. We're in the bury our head in the sand mode, and it's dangerous.
 
Until when? Some people won't want or can't be vaccinated. I understand excluding them initially but this can't be a thing forever.

Those who can't get the vaccine could apply for some sort of exemption to be placed on their passports.
Those who won't get vaccinated, that's their choice. But my view is, fuck 'em. If they want to join in... they know where the needle is.
 
Until when? Some people won't want or can't be vaccinated. I understand excluding them initially but this can't be a thing forever.

It will be a thing forever, in perpetuity, it's what they want, it's why they have shown zero interest nor breathed a single word about developing a treatment.
 
Those who can't get the vaccine could apply for some sort of exemption to be placed on their passports.
Those who won't get vaccinated, that's their choice. But my view is, fuck 'em. If they want to join in... they know where the needle is.

Nope. That's totalitarianism. I got my first jab, looking forward to my second, but you can't force people into things. Not everybody who doesn't get jabbed is an anti vaxxer. Some are wary and that's understandable. If they end up in the minority they should only really 'endanger' each other since the rest of us have been vaccinated.
 
Nope. That's totalitarianism. I got my first jab, looking forward to my second, but you can't force people into things. Not everybody who doesn't get jabbed is an anti vaxxer. Some are wary and that's understandable. If they end up in the minority they should only really 'endanger' each other since the rest of us have been vaccinated.

It's nothing of the sort. The law forces people into or away from things all day every day when they would otherwise endanger others. Understandable doesn't and definitely shouldn't automatically mean allowable.
 
A - I really need to watch this Black mirror thing heard it referenced loads, not watched any episodes.
B- Nancy has got the Rona.
 
It's nothing of the sort. The law forces people into or away from things all day every day when they would otherwise endanger others. Understandable doesn't and definitely shouldn't automatically mean allowable.

The law doesn't do this by forcing them to endanger themselves in the process. There are demographic groups where known risks up to now of the vaccine already outweigh the benefits. So you're asking them to take a hit so that others may live, which is ethically questionable.
 
The law doesn't do this by forcing them to endanger themselves in the process. There are demographic groups where known risks up to now of the vaccine already outweigh the benefits. So you're asking them to take a hit so that others may live, which is ethically questionable.

My understanding is that this applies to younger schoolchildren. If what you say above applies to nightclub age and higher, I'd be grateful for the evidence which demonstrates that.
 
It's one thing if you trusted them to just use these vaccine passports for now while they're "needed", and not abuse them later on. But in truth, it's another step on the slippery slope towards eating mealworm in our dank, underground dens and having computer chips implanted in our heads.
 
It's nothing of the sort. The law forces people into or away from things all day every day when they would otherwise endanger others. Understandable doesn't and definitely shouldn't automatically mean allowable.

It absolutely is. The law forces a lot of things and rightfully so. Vaccination of vaccines only just approved with emergency approval shouldn't be one of them. If the majority of people take it then they should be protected and people who don't are of no risk to them. Would you keep a vaccine passport forever? Would you be in favour of yearly booster shots even if companies won't share IP and get the vaccines eventually made and sold cheaper?
 
It absolutely is. The law forces a lot of things and rightfully so. Vaccination of vaccines only just approved with emergency approval shouldn't be one of them. If the majority of people take it then they should be protected and people who don't are of no risk to them. Would you keep a vaccine passport forever? Would you be in favour of yearly booster shots even if companies won't share IP and get the vaccines eventually made and sold cheaper?

We'll have to agree to differ. The inference of doubt in that reference to "emergency approval" is undeserved as, despite assorted dark hints to the contrary, no specific criticisms of the approval process have been forthcoming. So far the take-up in the relevant age group in this country is barely more than one third, so the bit about "If the majority of people" etc.falls away. Why should I or anyone else have a problem with keeping a vax passport as long as my standard passport? And yes, I'll get my yearly booster just as I'll be getting the flu one (another coronavirus incidentally) because the odds are dramatically in favour of that being less risky than contracting the virus itself.
 
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We'll have to agree to differ. The inference of doubt in that reference to "emergency approval" is undeserved as, despite assorted dark hints to the contrary, no specific criticisms of the approval process have been forthcoming. So far the take-up in the relevant age group in this country is barely more than one third, so the bit about "If the majority of people" etc.falls away. Why should I or anyone else have a problem with keeping a vax passport as long as my standard passport? And yes, I'll get my yearly boosters just as I'll be getting the flu one (another coronavirus incidentally) because the odds are dramatically in favour of that being less risky than contracting the virus itself.

Maybe for you but possibly not for young people (I mean younger than myself too). A member of JCVI has also said it may be safer for younger people to attain immunity through getting the virus rather than vaccination. It's all about relative risk. If a young person feels vaccine is a riskier option that is their choice. Once you have your vaccine you should be protected. Is the logic not that unvaccinated people are only a danger to each other? We never had a flu vaccine passport and I know this is more contagious and dangerous but we have never had nearly the coverage in fly vaccines that we have now in COVID vaccines. I support it as a short term measure but if it goes on beyond the middle of next year it's ridiculous.

I don't have skepticism of the approval process but there will be long term trials of these vaccines for years. There is a small chance of some long term issues.
 
We'll have to agree to differ. The inference of doubt in that reference to "emergency approval" is undeserved as, despite assorted dark hints to the contrary, no specific criticisms of the approval process have been forthcoming. So far the take-up in the relevant age group in this country is barely more than one third, so the bit about "If the majority of people" etc.falls away. Why should I or anyone else have a problem with keeping a vax passport as long as my standard passport? And yes, I'll get my yearly booster just as I'll be getting the flu one (another coronavirus incidentally) because the odds are dramatically in favour of that being less risky than contracting the virus itself.
I don't think flu is a coronavirus btw
 
Maybe for you but possibly not for young people (I mean younger than myself too). A member of JCVI has also said it may be safer for younger people to attain immunity through getting the virus rather than vaccination. It's all about relative risk. If a young person feels vaccine is a riskier option that is their choice. Once you have your vaccine you should be protected. Is the logic not that unvaccinated people are only a danger to each other? We never had a flu vaccine passport and I know this is more contagious and dangerous but we have never had nearly the coverage in fly vaccines that we have now in COVID vaccines. I support it as a short term measure but if it goes on beyond the middle of next year it's ridiculous.

I don't have skepticism of the approval process but there will be long term trials of these vaccines for years. There is a small chance of some long term issues.

Sorry but I don't agree it's as simple as "if a young person feels vaccine is a riskier option that is their choice". Any choice they make is going to directly affect everyone else, and not just in their immediate circle either. It's been said many times that none of us is safe until we're all safe.
 
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