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Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?

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Woland said:
My cousin killed herself yesterday. She was lovely. I couldn't get to sleep because i had such an earworm of jitterbug just banging on and on and on which is weird as I don't even know the song but it was there and not shutting up, so I took the dogs out at four in the morning and then realised that it's in there because George Michael killed himself on Christmas Day, like mum tried to 30 years ago, and it's what I've been considering as an option. Weird. I'm not going to by the way. I wouldn't be writing this if I was. But I'm fucked again. For Christmas.
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I only met you very briefly once or twice but even then I could tell that you were dead sound.
This little LFC centric world that we have here would be a much much lesser place without you in it and I suspect the very same applies to all the other worlds you inhabit and the lives you touch.
I don't know what else to say other than stay with us and make this little world a better place and hopefully happiness pervades in all corners of your world in time.
XX
 
Terribly sorry to hear about your cousin, @Woland. No question that the world is a fucked up place, no question that you're strong enough to deal with it – but as I understand (my wife's sister is a therapist who works with suicidal people a lot), wanting to end it all is quite a separate thing; it might seem related to external events, but really it's an internal thing that some of us carry and learn how to manage and live with. Sending lots of love and strength.
 
Looks like the UK is heading towards a Melbourne-style lockdown.

Just one thing to remember - if you do - you won’t be coming out of it in Feb. - you’ll be lucky to be out by Easter.
 
keniget said:
This is the UK govt we're talking about... they could just as easily let everyone have a couple days off for valentines.
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That’s true.

Europe will be glad to have gotten rid at this point.
 
My missus is getting the vaccine today. I think a successful scale roll out of these jabs over the next four weeks will determine our fate.

On another note, apparently Boris is getting married in late March so that should also help!
 
keniget said:
This is the UK govt we're talking about... they could just as easily let everyone have a couple days off for valentines.
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You meant he will tell everyone that, so they can buy up a bunch of overpriced cards, flowers, and other shit gifts in the week leading up to it, and then circumstances will change at the last minute leading to a cancellation.

I'm genuinely concerned now. Six people I know are dead, not death certificate states dead, but dead due to breathing difficulties caused by the new strain. The last strain was practically invisible in terms of its reach. I don't attribute this to the weather. It seems locking everyone down to kill the harmless mutations spreading through the population last spring, and thereafter letting the harmful mutations that hospitalised people go free into the lands under the watchful eye of serco was not the smartest idea from a microbiological standpoint.
 
rurikbird said:
So what did Boris do this time? My UK Twitter line seems aghast, but I can only follow so many shitshows at once.
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Basically... it seems letting everyone run wild through the streets spreading COVID has turned out to be a bad idea.

I’m looking at the figures for Norn Iron and can’t believe them - unless I’m reading them entirely wrong- but like 3.5k new cases every day in a country full of 1.5million - and they’re only thinking about making masks mandatory and locking things down a little bit.

Australia’s closing state borders and locking things down if daily cases as much as look like they might hit double figures.
 
Brizzle said:
My missus is getting the vaccine today. I think a successful scale roll out of these jabs over the next four weeks will determine our fate.

On another note, apparently Boris is getting married in late March so that should also help!
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Half a vaccine. To combat a new mutation the double shot vaccine was not certain to be effective against. What could go wrong?
 
dantes said:
Half a vaccine. To combat a new mutation the double shot vaccine was not certain to be effective against. What could go wrong?
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Are you also an anti-vaxxer Dantes?! Jeez.

Talk to me about the shape of the planet earth?
 
Brizzle said:
Are you also an anti-vaxxer Dantes?! Jeez.

Talk to me about the shape of the planet earth?
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No. When the vaccine was being developed you will recall me explaining they were not like the old ones cultured from parts of the mashed up virus, but from individual bits of its genetic code. the spike protein. This type of vaccine is far cheaper and quicker to manufacture since you don't need to grow it in live cells. So from a finance perspective, happy days. But I warned that this made them susceptible to turning to shit if that protein mutated.

Alas, the new variant is called the new variant because of the large number of mutations to the spike protein. The scientists are saying nah, no need for alarm, everything will be fine, we have no ethidence that the vaccine will not work. I find their lack of doubt disturbing is all.
 
dantes said:
No. When the vaccine was being developed you will recall me explaining they were not like the old ones cultured from parts of the mashed up virus, but from individual bits of its genetic code. the spike protein. This type of vaccine is far cheaper and quicker to manufacture since you don't need to grow it in live cells. So from a finance perspective, happy days. But I warned that this made them susceptible to turning to shit if that protein mutated.

Alas, the new variant is called the new variant because of the large number of mutations to the spike protein. The scientists are saying nah, no need for alarm, everything will be fine, we have no ethidence that the vaccine will not work. I find their lack of doubt disturbing is all.
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You do know that not all the vaccines are being developed the same way don't you? There are like 4 or 5 totally different procedures in development. So you need to be more specific about which vaccine you are talking about?
 
Yes I know that. In talking about the vaccines that target specific proteins, I was specifically referring to vaccines that do not target those proteins, and therefore I have contradicted myself. Thanks for pointing this out.
 
StevieM said:
Basically... it seems letting everyone run wild through the streets spreading COVID has turned out to be a bad idea.

I’m looking at the figures for Norn Iron and can’t believe them - unless I’m reading them entirely wrong- but like 3.5k new cases every day in a country full of 1.5million - and they’re only thinking about making masks mandatory and locking things down a little bit.

Australia’s closing state borders and locking things down if daily cases as much as look like they might hit double figures.
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This is the way (in the UK)

No planning. No foresight, just last minute changes which comes about when the government eventually bow down to critismn, scientific evidence with potential legal pressure

But it's the public's fault for spreading the virus is what we keep getting told..

Just an absolute shit show in the UK..
 
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When can we expect Dantes to put his mind to killing this virus?

One Dantes to rule them all.

Although... to be clear... I’m not comfortable with putting anything Dantes asks me to in my mouth or letting Dantes stab me with anything.
 
You cannot kill that which does not live. But my solution would be to encase humans inside sterile vats, so that they are insulated from all external pathogens, and then use electrical signals to replicate the experience of being alive in the world.
 
Of course I would be permitted to gather the electrical data, plot graphs, analyse it, and eventually solve the only important thing I have left to solve on the matter of consciousness.
 
dantes said:
You cannot kill that which does not live. But my solution would be to encase humans inside sterile vats, so that they are insulated from all external pathogens, and then use electrical signals to replicate the experience of being alive in the world.
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That is the matrix territory.
 
Evidently I'm an essential key worker now.

Working in a fucking car factory.

We're exempt from the Tier system apparently.

I expect all of you cunts to go out and clap for me.
 
StevieM said:
Looks like the UK is heading towards a Melbourne-style lockdown.

Just one thing to remember - if you do - you won’t be coming out of it in Feb. - you’ll be lucky to be out by Easter.
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I am sure you have explained it before, I can't recall, but at least at the moment we aren't looking at a lockdown that is as tough as the Australian one. It isn't even as tough as the one we had here back in March.

For those of us in London/South East, yesterday's announcement didn't change very much, other than schools are closed for longer and golf courses are shut.

I think you are probably onto something with the dates though. It's a pretty big ask for all of the top 4 priority groups to be vaccinated by mid Feb. In theory, if they do manage that then it makes sense that some restrictions can be lifted, but I am not putting money on it, and we will still have at least some restrictions way, way beyond that.
 
Richey said:
I am sure you have explained it before, I can't recall, but at least at the moment we aren't looking at a lockdown that is as tough as the Australian one. It isn't even as tough as the one we had here back in March.

For those of us in London/South East, yesterday's announcement didn't change very much, other than schools are closed for longer and golf courses are shut.

I think you are probably onto something with the dates though. It's a pretty big ask for all of the top 4 priority groups to be vaccinated by mid Feb. In theory, if they do manage that then it makes sense that some restrictions can be lifted, but I am not putting money on it, and we will still have at least some restrictions way, way beyond that.
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Allow me to depress the ever loving shit out of you:

[article]
The varying effectiveness of AstraZeneca’s vaccine reflected differences in how doses were administered in the late-stage trials. In the dosing plan that was 90 percent effective, study participants were given a half-dose of the vaccine and then, a month later, a full dose. The vaccine was less effective when people were given a standard full dose upfront, followed a month later by another full dose. On average, the vaccine was 70 percent effective.
[/article]

Guess which dosing method the government have been forced to roll with thanks to making a fucking mess of the situation? Then do some maths, if the average is 70, and the first number is 90, I might be wrong here, I don't claim to be a human calculator, but it seems to me that the second number must be 50. Then let us factor in the mutation, how much less effective will it be against the new strain? Let's assume 40% being generous. Now lets factor in that this isn't proper science, it's just statistics, and people have a natural ability to fight off infection regardless of the vaccine, which masks a lot of the true effect. What do you suppose that baseline rate is? Let's call it 30% to be charitable.

So this miracle vaccine, in reality is improving our immunity from 30% to 40% in this scenario. You're all going to fucking die. Mark my words.
 
Richey said:
I am sure you have explained it before, I can't recall, but at least at the moment we aren't looking at a lockdown that is as tough as the Australian one. It isn't even as tough as the one we had here back in March.

For those of us in London/South East, yesterday's announcement didn't change very much, other than schools are closed for longer and golf courses are shut.

I think you are probably onto something with the dates though. It's a pretty big ask for all of the top 4 priority groups to be vaccinated by mid Feb. In theory, if they do manage that then it makes sense that some restrictions can be lifted, but I am not putting money on it, and we will still have at least some restrictions way, way beyond that.
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I think so mate - I heard it’s takes the vaccination 20 odd days before it’s effective - so if you get jabbed today - you’re looking at Feb. for normality - even if everyone jabbed by mid Feb - you’re into March before everyone’s in the clear.

I can’t see this being rolled out in 6 weeks.

I still don’t get why the restrictions are so “lax” - it’s literally prolonging the length of time harsh restrictions will need to be in place and just putting off for a short while having to go to an even harsher Stage 5+ or 6 or whatever it will be called.

I still maintain - letting people go overseas in July/August and on top of that, not locking down for 4 odd weeks in Sept is the reason the UK’s in this mess - and chance of control was lost.

It’s a race against time to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possibly - and I don’t fancy that logistics is this Government’s strong point.
 
dantes said:
Allow me to depress the ever loving shit out of you:

[article]
The varying effectiveness of AstraZeneca’s vaccine reflected differences in how doses were administered in the late-stage trials. In the dosing plan that was 90 percent effective, study participants were given a half-dose of the vaccine and then, a month later, a full dose. The vaccine was less effective when people were given a standard full dose upfront, followed a month later by another full dose. On average, the vaccine was 70 percent effective.
[/article]

Guess which dosing method the government have been forced to roll with thanks to making a fucking mess of the situation? Then do some maths, if the average is 70, and the first number is 90, I might be wrong here, I don't claim to be a human calculator, but it seems to me that the second number must be 50. Then let us factor in the mutation, how much less effective will it be against the new strain? Let's assume 40% being generous. Now lets factor in that this isn't proper science, it's just statistics, and people have a natural ability to fight off infection regardless of the vaccine, which masks a lot of the true effect. What do you suppose that baseline rate is? Let's call it 30% to be charitable.

So this miracle vaccine, in reality is improving our immunity from 30% to 40% in this scenario. You're all going to fucking die. Mark my words.
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Thanks. That doesn't massively depress me yet, to be honest. I am sure you know a lot more about the science than I do, but surely all vaccines only have a certain level of effectiveness, and I assume that this has been considered. Maybe it will be enough for life to return to some level of normality or maybe at the other end of the scale, we will alll die. Not something that I can control so not something I will lose a lot of sleep over right now.
 
StevieM said:
I think so mate - I heard it’s takes the vaccination 20 odd days before it’s effective - so if you get jabbed today - you’re looking at Feb. for normality - even if everyone jabbed by mid Feb - you’re into March before everyone’s in the clear.

I can’t see this being rolled out in 6 weeks.

I still don’t get why the restrictions are so “lax” - it’s literally prolonging the length of time harsh restrictions will need to be in place and just putting off for a short while having to go to an even harsher Stage 5+ or 6 or whatever it will be called.

I still maintain - letting people go overseas in July/August and on top of that, not locking down for 4 odd weeks in Sept is the reason the UK’s in this mess - and chance of control was lost.

It’s a race against time to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possibly - and I don’t fancy that logistics is this Government’s strong point.
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Yes, that was my understanding of the vaccine too. I think it takes a little while. I think the aim is to have the first four priority groups vaccinated with the first dose by mid Feb though, which I believe amoiunts to around 13 million people?

That seems like a rather big ask, given that we are not in a position to vaccinate 2 million people this week, and every week that average is not hit, the target surely has to go up in following weeks!

If that target is hit, then I believe the schools reopen after half term, but I doubt the community restrictions will alter much for a while afterwards and I imagine those who are shielding will do so for a while longer too.

I see what you are saying about lax restrictions, but a hell of a lot of people weren't even sticking to the ones that we had. I might be wrong but I don't expect there to be any harsher lockdown here than we have had already. I mean, the one we have now isn't even on par with the one in March, and I think the government could probably have got away with having the March-style lockdown now if they really wanted it. I am not sure how necessary that would be either. If we are to accept that the vaccine will actually make people immune then the need for full lockdowns must surely be diminished.
 
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