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Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?

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I think the bigger issue in the UK was opening up international travel for summer Holliday’s after lockdown 1 - which seemed to be an invitation to reacquire and spread the virus in all directions.

Also - if you’re going to lockdown an area - be it a city, county or region - then that means no-one in or out without a permit and police on the ground enforcing.

Yes that’s a scary thought, but necessary.

The New South Wales border has pretty much been closed in Australia due to a small outbreak in Sydney with only essential travel by permit. NSW State Government has then locked down the suburbs affected and ifvthe numbers don’t drop down quickly, Sydney will have a very different Christmas to the rest of Australia.

I don’t think it’s viewing the Tory Government with hindsight to suggest they could have done this differently - there’s plenty of evidence to suggest what needs to be done if your aim is near eradication & control - but there doesn’t appear to have been the will to do it both politically and within the greater population.
 
StevieM said:
I think the bigger issue in the UK was opening up international travel for summer Holliday’s after lockdown 1 - which seemed to be an invitation to reacquire and spread the virus in all directions.

Also - if you’re going to lockdown an area - be it a city, county or region - then that means no-one in or out without a permit and police on the ground enforcing.

Yes that’s a scary thought, but necessary.

The New South Wales border has pretty much been closed in Australia due to a small outbreak in Sydney with only essential travel by permit. NSW State Government has then locked down the suburbs affected and ifvthe numbers don’t drop down quickly, Sydney will have a very different Christmas to the rest of Australia.

I don’t think it’s viewing the Tory Government with hindsight to suggest they could have done this differently - there’s plenty of evidence to suggest what needs to be done if your aim is near eradication & control - but there doesn’t appear to have been the will to do it both politically and within the greater population.
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Rumours are the Sydney outbreak is the mutated version.

My sister in law was unlucky enough to be in the same bar at the same time as the only confirmed case in Brisbane. Shes in quarantine until Christmas Eve (provided she provides a second negative test).
 
We still aren’t testing people who arrive from overseas (either a tourist or a resident returning from oversea) - surely we’ll never be in control if we ignore this
 
The evening trains from Manchester to Liverpool are rammed. They’re in tier 3 and fuck all open where we are in 2 with restaurants open. Stevie is bang on and movement between areas needed stopping. The government set half arsed rules, let rule breakers get away with it leading to more non compliance. Then they’ll blame the people for is going to shit.
 
StevieM said:
I think the bigger issue in the UK was opening up international travel for summer Holliday’s after lockdown 1 - which seemed to be an invitation to reacquire and spread the virus in all directions.

Also - if you’re going to lockdown an area - be it a city, county or region - then that means no-one in or out without a permit and police on the ground enforcing.

Yes that’s a scary thought, but necessary.

The New South Wales border has pretty much been closed in Australia due to a small outbreak in Sydney with only essential travel by permit. NSW State Government has then locked down the suburbs affected and ifvthe numbers don’t drop down quickly, Sydney will have a very different Christmas to the rest of Australia.

I don’t think it’s viewing the Tory Government with hindsight to suggest they could have done this differently - there’s plenty of evidence to suggest what needs to be done if your aim is near eradication & control - but there doesn’t appear to have been the will to do it both politically and within the greater population.
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The problem with ANY measure in the UK is simple.

Resources.

We can't do enforcement, cos we don't have enough police due to massive cuts.

We can't do track & trace even partly effectively, due to the resources being missed & given to private companies.

We can't treat effectively as we don't have enough beds or enough nurses, due to massive cuts & backdoor privatisation.
 
Half arsed rules, this idea of a late lockdown in Nov all for a month to open again for Christmas shopping on the 5th and people are surprised now it’s rampant.
Up till 5 days ago, Government were all on for a big Christmas bash then suddenly it’s off due to the current rate and new strain.
It’s not all their fault but they have really shown no coherent plan or any true conviction at any point. It’s always been reactionary.
I wonder if locking down late September till end of year till end of jan and evaluating christmas break based on numbers would have been a more honest and workable plan but we shall never know now.
Obsession about Christmas break since March hasn’t helped.
 
It's obviously preferable to saying "We were wrong. Again. We fucked up. Again."

It's ok to be wrong. It's an unprecedented fucking situation.

People expect missteps.

They should have said sorry a few times previously over smaller mistakes.

This though, making promises to businesses & families a month in advance is not just a misstep though, it's a huge fucking blatantly obvious fuck up, that loads of people said was stupidly premature at the time.

I noticed they're saying that the new strain spreads more quickly amongst children & teens. Which is a coincidence, cos the 'old strain' did that too, but the UK government kept denying it, in face of the obvious fucking statistics proving otherwise.
 
The Nomad said:
Rumours are the Sydney outbreak is the mutated version.

My sister in law was unlucky enough to be in the same bar at the same time as the only confirmed case in Brisbane. Shes in quarantine until Christmas Eve (provided she provides a second negative test).
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Yeah - we had a team lunch on Friday with our top boss - first time we’ve met him and first time we as a team have been together in the same room since March.

Of course the big boss had flown down from Sydney.

Thankfully he got tested over the weekend and was negative.
 
I can't believe you're even arsed. Sydney has sixty cases? It's got like 5 million people. You've got more chance of winning the lottery but you're going on about getting tested and locking shit down. It's fucking nuts.
 
I'm still thinking about this. 60 cases. The probability of any of them dying is fucking low, but let's say one of them did. One in five million. You've got more chance of slipping on a used Johnny in the street and banging your head to death. Go and get tested for that.
 
Woland said:
I'm still thinking about this. 60 cases. The probability of any of them dying is fucking low, but let's say one of them did. One in five million. You've got more chance of slipping on a used Johnny in the street and banging your head to death. Go and get tested for that.
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It's not about the 60 though if the R value is above 1. It's about that 60 could quickly become 600 and then 6,000 and then it's out of control and the deaths happen. I hate to bang on about China but they are rabid about testing and T&T and lockdowns here. Short, very very sharp and very effective. I've mentioned Qingdao before, 11m people, 20 odd locally transmitted cases and they locked down the city and tested every single person. 2 weeks later it reopened and is thriving again without Covid. Australia and NZ have got it right, IMO of course.
 
Mate - we went through a fucker of a lick down over several hundred cases, predominantly in aged care and with deaths mainly in elderly.

As with the Sydney outbreak - the cases were acquired from overseas travellers and slip out into the community.

It’s only takes a few superspreading events to go nuts.

No other state wants the virus back in circulation - you look at what some states are doing - Queensland, Western Australia- they slam the border shut to anyone there’s even a suggestion has it.

Why? Because I don’t think you can effectively protect vulnerable groups AND let community spread happen - you either lock down, eridicate that shit - then you can do rapid containment if it pops us again - but it’s impossible if it’s out there all over the place already.

It means businesses can operate at a level that’s sustainable and while the economy takes a hit it doesn’t grind to a halt.

All infections start as a small number - it’s what you do to keep it small that counts.

Those 60 cases could easily get into a spiral and within weeks your getting 500+ a day.

From all I’ve seen and experienced - lock down hard and quickly when the numbers are low and it’ll be a short lockdown.

Wait until the numbers are up - then it’s too late and you’re in for a long lockdown because it’ll take longer for the numbers to come down and if you come out to soon you increase the risk of going back in.

We were over 2-3 weeks into lockdown before we started seeing the numbers of new cases start to decrease.

I take FFF’s point that inaction is only part of the problem because the infrastructure for dealing with everything has been run down.

I think Boris Johnson’s modus operandi is to avoid being the one to break bad news which feeds his inaction while he searches for alternatives and spin.

I said it months ago - that the UK would be heading into lockdown at Christmas - it was unavoidable after August - and by September, the pissing about was too late, let alone November or changing track a week before Christmas.
 
Frogfish said:
It's not about the 60 though if the R value is above 1. It's about that 60 could quickly become 600 and then 6,000 and then it's out of control and the deaths happen. I hate to bang on about China but they are rabid about testing and T&T and lockdowns here. Short, very very sharp and very effective. I've mentioned Qingdao before, 11m people, 20 odd locally transmitted cases and they locked down the city and tested every single person. 2 weeks later it reopened and is thriving again without Covid. Australia and NZ have got it right, IMO of course.
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Just curious. Do they have a surplus of nurses and testing technicians in China? Or are they deploying the military to do the tests? The scale of testing is impressive.

Here in Oregon (which is supposedly a blue progressive state), they are still at around 110,000 tests per week. People who are flying to destinations that require a PCR test done within 72 hours of flying are finding it tough to find testing centers that can get the results within 72 hours in Oregon. Some of the folks are driving to the nearby state of Washington where there are clinics and testing centers that are able to deliver results within 36-48 hours. However, the issue is that then it is not covered by insurance as it is out of state.
 
peekay said:
Just curious. Do they have a surplus of nurses and testing technicians in China? Or are they deploying the military to do the tests? The scale of testing is impressive.

Here in Oregon (which is supposedly a blue progressive state), they are still at around 110,000 tests per week. People who are flying to destinations that require a PCR test done within 72 hours of flying are finding it tough to find testing centers that can get the results within 72 hours in Oregon. Some of the folks are driving to the nearby state of Washington where there are clinics and testing centers that are able to deliver results within 36-48 hours. However, the issue is that then it is not covered by insurance as it is out of state.
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Good question. I had to Google it and found it on Xinhua (below). I know when we arrived at Pudong Airport in Shanghai most of the 'medical staff' doing menial but necessary work were volunteers (mainly from local universities) with the qualified medical staff taking swabs, blood tests etc.

Definitely the army could also be used if required. Huge spare manpower there. Often we see the army deployed to assist in the many flood areas that occur each year.

To ensure the citywide testing can be completed in five days, five cities in Shandong Province, including Zibo, Yantai, and Rizhao, have joined hands with Qingdao to help conduct nucleic acid sampling and testing, and more than 1,200 people have been dispatched from outside to the city for assistance, said Chen Wansheng, an official with the municipal government of Qingdao.​
Some of the samples from Qingdao were transported to the five neighboring cities for testing, as Qingdao has limited equipment and the samples must be tested within 12 hours, Zhao Guolei, deputy director of the municipal health commission, told Xinhua.​
QR scanning has been used at some sample collecting points to replace paper registration to cut the waiting time and lower the risk of spread of infection.​
Some communities have called in medics to provide door-to-door sampling for old people with restricted mobility.​
 
Woland said:
I'm still thinking about this. 60 cases. The probability of any of them dying is fucking low, but let's say one of them did. One in five million. You've got more chance of slipping on a used Johnny in the street and banging your head to death. Go and get tested for that.
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Mate - you should move to Australia- apparently Aussies have spent $2 billion more in booze in 2020.

August 2019 was the right time for me to make a move into online liquor retailing it seems.
 
Frogfish said:
Good question. I had to Google it and found it on Xinhua (below). I know when we arrived at Pudong Airport in Shanghai most of the 'medical staff' doing menial but necessary work were volunteers (mainly from local universities) with the qualified medical staff taking swabs, blood tests etc.

Definitely the army could also be used if required. Huge spare manpower there. Often we see the army deployed to assist in the many flood areas that occur each year.

To ensure the citywide testing can be completed in five days, five cities in Shandong Province, including Zibo, Yantai, and Rizhao, have joined hands with Qingdao to help conduct nucleic acid sampling and testing, and more than 1,200 people have been dispatched from outside to the city for assistance, said Chen Wansheng, an official with the municipal government of Qingdao.
Some of the samples from Qingdao were transported to the five neighboring cities for testing, as Qingdao has limited equipment and the samples must be tested within 12 hours, Zhao Guolei, deputy director of the municipal health commission, told Xinhua.
QR scanning has been used at some sample collecting points to replace paper registration to cut the waiting time and lower the risk of spread of infection.
Some communities have called in medics to provide door-to-door sampling for old people with restricted mobility.​
Click to expand...

Just wanted to add for comparison. It was only recently (October) that the number of tests in Oregon expanded to 80000 plus per week. And the expansion was primarily rapid antigen tests and not PCR. All through the first peak (June to September), we were at around 25000-35000 tests per week. And Oregon is actually one of the better performing states in COVID by any metric.
 
peekay said:
Just wanted to add for comparison. It was only recently (October) that the number of tests in Oregon expanded to 80000 plus per week. And the expansion was primarily rapid antigen tests and not PCR. All through the first peak (June to September), we were at around 25000-35000 tests per week. And Oregon is actually one of the better performing states in COVID by any metric.
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Yep manpower and technology is incredible here. Everyone has a constantly updated QR code on their phones (children or spouse can be added to one phone with their own codes) via one of two massive existing platforms (WeChat & Alipay).

These are usually green but will turn yellow or red depending on the area status. Anything except green and entrance to most places and travel is forbidden.

I'm on the metro as I write and every single person is wearing a mask.
 
FoxForceFive said:
The problem with ANY measure in the UK is simple.

Resources.

We can't do enforcement, cos we don't have enough police due to massive cuts.

We can't do track & trace even partly effectively, due to the resources being missed & given to private companies.

We can't treat effectively as we don't have enough beds or enough nurses, due to massive cuts & backdoor privatisation.
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The revenues for these companies are provided to them by the government. That makes them fundamentally different to what you would ordinarily consider a private company. Blindly conflating the two, and then thinking the evil originates from the private sector is a key reason people misunderstand capitalism, think socialism is better, and remain in perpetual poverty.

What you should have learned from all this is that these are not companies, they're just fronts for family friends and old boys networks, to raise taxes from the peasants and hand them to the lords, just like the old days before capitalism.
 
FoxForceFive said:
It's obviously preferable to saying "We were wrong. Again. We fucked up. Again."

It's ok to be wrong. It's an unprecedented fucking situation.

People expect missteps.

They should have said sorry a few times previously over smaller mistakes.

This though, making promises to businesses & families a month in advance is not just a misstep though, it's a huge fucking blatantly obvious fuck up, that loads of people said was stupidly premature at the time.

I noticed they're saying that the new strain spreads more quickly amongst children & teens. Which is a coincidence, cos the 'old strain' did that too, but the UK government kept denying it, in face of the obvious fucking statistics proving otherwise.
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Reading the guardian this morning.. make a valid point.

The government's failure to support raising the UK’s SSP –being the worst in Europe, has made it difficult for many to self-isolate, particularly those from poor backgrounds.. this is likely contributing to the spread of the virus..

Add this to the fact lockdown suddenly imposed across large swathes of England under tier 4 restrictions has so far not been accompanied by the emergency support measures necessary to avoid further economic damage.

As you say reactionary response from the government.. You have seen this from the many climb downs they have been forced to do during this pandemic.. Far worse is come, particularly for the most poor and vulnerable in society..
 
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Frogfish said:
It's not about the 60 though if the R value is above 1. It's about that 60 could quickly become 600 and then 6,000 and then it's out of control and the deaths happen. I hate to bang on about China but they are rabid about testing and T&T and lockdowns here. Short, very very sharp and very effective. I've mentioned Qingdao before, 11m people, 20 odd locally transmitted cases and they locked down the city and tested every single person. 2 weeks later it reopened and is thriving again without Covid. Australia and NZ have got it right, IMO of course.
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All very impressive and that but maybe if they'd been less rabid and more sharper and effective this time last year then the rest of the world would not be in this shitshow.

It's almost galling watching young Chinese in Wuhan at the club loving life while others across the are crying over not seeing their families for xmas.
 
Atlas said:
All very impressive and that but maybe if they'd been less rabid and more sharper and effective this time last year then the rest of the world would not be in this shitshow.

It's almost galling watching young Chinese in Wuhan at the club loving life while others across the are crying over not seeing their families for xmas.
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Bullshit blaming but hey whatever gets you through it.
 
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StevieM said:
Mate - you should move to Australia- apparently Aussies have spent $2 billion more in booze in 2020.

August 2019 was the right time for me to make a move into online liquor retailing it seems.
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Dude, I really need a change but I don't think they accept washed up old nobheads who've just trashed three businesses
 
Woland said:
Dude, I really need a change but I don't think they accept washed up old nobheads who've just trashed three businesses
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Mate - they let me and Dreamie in - you’d probs get fast tracked.
 
There's going to be national lockdown early in the new year. My misses works for Manchester council and all the marketing is being designed as we speak. At the very least Manchester and Liverpool will be in tier 4.

I think we should stay locked down until the elderly and CEV are vaccinated. We did 500,000 vaccines to date so we're flying through it. Nothing less than tier 3 has any impact whatsoever. Lockdown until March/ April, get all the vulnerable vaccinated and then open back up with a party.

The half measures and dilly-dallying just doesn't work. If your COVID response doesn't sound over the top than you're doing it wrong. We've surely learnt that by now?

The Christmas rules were a farce to begin with and will lead to the deaths of tens of thousands.
 
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