He may well be real. My first thought was a certain communist state trolling the US.
Next it will be Prof John Adams or something.
Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?
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Next it will be Prof John Adams or something.
The adjusted peak nonsense.
The original peak is what was nonsense, partly to create the most clickable story possible so as to earn the most revenue for the fake news, and partly because the people responsible for the data don't give a shit about using it to model or predict anything, it's just something they do to go through the motions and get paid for the trouble. So you have a bunch of near enough useless data. The guy tweeting took that useless data, and made a decent attempt at trying to make it fit for modelling purposes. His ultimate graph is useless too because he's probably not that smart and is hindered by having shit data to work with in the first place.
How you get from there to laughing at dantes is what baffles me. If I could be bothered, I'd go into the raw data, use my genius, and come up with models that you wouldn't believe, making predictions that would be stunningly accurate. But I have better things to do.
I'm sure you can work it out why I found it funny.. your mathematical mind just needs to click, make a few assumptions and leaps to connect it together.
So the government report the infection rates, and provide links to the sources of those figures which are various administrative bodies and official survey type companies. I said the data collection people are morons. Then you saw I had linked my graph to some dude off twitter, which is not a credible link, so I was a worse data collector than the government, and now I see where you're coming from. I shouldn't have used the word collector, it was nothing to do with the collector or collection or links and sources, the people are morons because they don't understand data. I'm a genius because I do. Hope that clears that up.
It's certainly heading that way.. we bought time for a vaccine/treatment by locking down. Can we keep doing it?
The fuck I am if the toffs can just bypass the rules with no consequences.
Anyone truth to the rumour that the spike in Leicester is due to underground sweatshops for the fashion industry?
Certainly seems plausible, from what I've read anyway.
You mean you've read Gerry's post? Fair enough.
And it certainly seems reasonable.
Forget the vaccine bit. After decades they still don't have a vaccine for any of the other coronaviruses. And mutations would likely invalidate it after a few months.
According to The Economist they reckon there could be 150-200m that have been infected by this time next year ... with 1.5 - 2m dead. Still it's peanuts compared to 7.8 billion and climbing at nearly 400,000 per day. It won't even arrest the spread of humanity, just a minor speed-bump.
Totally get that, but we could hopefully have bought time for effective treatment via a cocktail of existing drugs. That's my hope anyway.
Lockdown is effectively dead in the water as an option now, in England at least. Should there be a second spike.
I was hoping your head would explode.
Madrid (CNN)Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.
The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus. Herd immunity is achieved when enough of a population has become infected with a virus or bacteria -- or vaccinated against it -- to stop its circulation.
The European Center for Disease Control told CNN that Spain's research, on a nationwide representative sample of more than 61,000 participants, appears to be the largest study to date among a dozen serological studies on the coronavirus undertaken by European nations.
The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus. Herd immunity is achieved when enough of a population has become infected with a virus or bacteria -- or vaccinated against it -- to stop its circulation.
The European Center for Disease Control told CNN that Spain's research, on a nationwide representative sample of more than 61,000 participants, appears to be the largest study to date among a dozen serological studies on the coronavirus undertaken by European nations.
When you see the same thing being done in half the research papers published on any given day, some moron on twitter being misled barely registers as an inconvenience.
You know what, you’re absolutely correct.... I wouldn’t believe any models you came up with.
Not having any kind of scientific background I don't feel able to comment either way, but one or two of the medics I've heard interviewed recently, including England's Chief Medical Officer, are more bullish than this about the chances of a vaccine being discovered, and they'd know they'll get lambasted for over-optimism if it doesn't happen. Just saying.
Only basing my comments on empirical observations. We are still waiting for a cure/vaccine for HIV and no cure / vaccine has ever been found for SARS/MERS or any other coronavirus. Scientists must be optimistic by nature !
That's because neither HIV or SARS/MERS have brought the world economy to a standstill. They are tolerable to corporations as they do not affect their ability to generate capital. In fact, one might say it's in their interests not to find cures for such diseases when they can generate huge, steady income streams from therapeutic treatments. COVID-19 is a completely different kettle of fish, hence the massive global effort to defeat it, and hence why we'll likely have half a dozen vaccines by this time next year.
I think whenever a vaccine comes out I'll wait a while before getting it. You know, wait for any potential side effects to be seen etc. Plus with the people getting the vaccination there'll be less chance of catching it. Don't get me wrong, I'll still get it.
You'd be incapable to interpreting the efficacy data and calculating the probability of serious side effects, so I think the best thing is for you to get it, and for me to be the one who waits such that I can properly analyse the data and tell you whether you made the right call.
I don't think that's yer man's style (not nearly bloody enough). I see him more as a chainsaw type of guy.