• You may have to login or register before you can post and view our exclusive members only forums.
    To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?

Forums Unread posts
Are there any theory's on why the US death rate is falling. Is it undercounting deaths, over counting cases, or, based on vastly different stages in each state? Seems really out of sync with the rest of the world, which is highly suspicious.
 
Gerry_A_Trick said:
Are there any theory's on why the US death rate is falling. Is it undercounting deaths, over counting cases, or, based on vastly different stages in each state? Seems really out of sync with the rest of the world, which is highly suspicious.
Click to expand...

Part of it will be due to them having far better equipped hospitals and the most highly trained doctors in the world. The other part is that Big D is calling the shots.
 
Doesn't it take a few weeks for a surge in deaths to appear following a surge in cases?

The surge in US cases started 2 weeks ago.
 
Gerry_A_Trick said:
Are there any theory's on why the US death rate is falling. Is it undercounting deaths, over counting cases, or, based on vastly different stages in each state? Seems really out of sync with the rest of the world, which is highly suspicious.
Click to expand...
Possibly a lot of it could be younger people who were involved in the beach parties, protests etc. Their recovery rates are much higher and faster though there is the potential that they spread the virus to their parents/grandparents and they onto their friends. Deaths may therefore increase down the line.

Of course there is also the fact that the death rate lags infections by 3-4 weeks.
 
dantes said:
That's already been accounted for. This economist explains it all quite well for a change.



Click to expand...

That's a little disingenuous. She needs to take it back 3-4 weeks not 1-2 weeks. Very few people die within 7-14 days. I'd like to see what her graphs say then. The same disparity or something else?
 
Frogfish said:
That's a little disingenuous. She needs to take it back 3-4 weeks not 1-2 weeks. Very few people die within 7-14 days. I'd like to see what her graphs say then. The same disparity or something else?
Click to expand...

If you do that, then the deaths around March/April will end up preceding the infections. She's lined the graphs up to correct for the lag, which is the right thing to do. Of course the lag is a variable, it might have increased to 3-4 weeks since April, which means you need to shift + stretch the graph accordingly, but nobody has the mathematical insight to realise that let alone do it. Especially not economists.
 
dantes said:
If you do that, then the deaths around March/April will end up preceding the infections. She's lined the graphs up to correct for the lag, which is the right thing to do. Of course the lag is a variable, it might have increased to 3-4 weeks since April, which means you need to shift + stretch the graph accordingly, but nobody has the mathematical insight to realise that let alone do it. Especially not economists.
Click to expand...
Which is why I said it's a little disingenuous. It's inaccurate.
 
Frogfish said:
Which is why I said it's a little disingenuous. It's inaccurate.
Click to expand...

Not even epidemiologists who have supposed doctorates account for the lag rate changing over time in their models. The lag rate is actually a distribution, so you need to use a statistical model that samples from the bell curve, then shift the bell curve to the right over time, and run the simulation to get an accurate answer. The bell curve is also not a bog standard normal distribution, you'd need to track individual patients from the time they got infected to the time they died, over time, record all that data from all the hospitals, and then plot the time varying distribution of lags over that sample. That's the bell curve you plug into your model. Instead professor fucking lockdown doesn't do any of that work, he just sticks a 2 week lag into the code. 2. Why do several months of work when you can just stick a 2 into the calculation. Why? Stick that fucking 2 up your ass, and keep it there until dantes comes to claim your life.

Anyway, those cunts use a constant lag, because they don't give a shit about accuracy. So it's grossly unfair to then call an economist out as being disingenuous when she has done the same thing. Especially when she seems quite hot.
 
Gerry_A_Trick said:
Are there any theory's on why the US death rate is falling. Is it undercounting deaths, over counting cases, or, based on vastly different stages in each state? Seems really out of sync with the rest of the world, which is highly suspicious.
Click to expand...

Shitty tests seem to be part of it
 
dantes said:
Not even epidemiologists who have supposed doctorates account for the lag rate changing over time in their models. The lag rate is actually a distribution, so you need to use a statistical model that samples from the bell curve, then shift the bell curve to the right over time, and run the simulation to get an accurate answer. The bell curve is also not a bog standard normal distribution, you'd need to track individual patients from the time they got infected to the time they died, over time, record all that data from all the hospitals, and then plot the time varying distribution of lags over that sample. That's the bell curve you plug into your model. Instead professor fucking lockdown doesn't do any of that work, he just sticks a 2 week lag into the code. 2. Why do several months of work when you can just stick a 2 into the calculation. Why? Stick that fucking 2 up your ass, and keep it there until dantes comes to claim your life.

Anyway, those cunts use a constant lag, because they don't give a shit about accuracy. So it's grossly unfair to then call an economist out as being disingenuous when she has done the same thing. Especially when she seems quite hot.
Click to expand...
A quick Google and we get (from The Telegraph etc) 17.8 days from testing to death. So there we go plug that in and stop your bitching 😉
 
The populations involved are younger. A massive percentage of the deaths originally were in congregate care settings and they are locked down.

Now, you get rampant spread among 20-30 year olds and you're going to have problems still, which is what's coming. We are seeing spiking hospitalizations now. First cases, then hospitalizations, then deaths.

I'm furious really... because it was a fucking pain in the ass to quarantine, and now we're all suffering because of the most selfish among us, both in terms of states and people.
 
Farkmaster said:
The populations involved are younger. A massive percentage of the deaths originally were in congregate care settings and they are locked down.

Now, you get rampant spread among 20-30 year olds and you're going to have problems still, which is what's coming. We are seeing spiking hospitalizations now. First cases, then hospitalizations, then deaths.

I'm furious really... because it was a fucking pain in the ass to quarantine, and now we're all suffering because of the most selfish among us, both in terms of states and people.
Click to expand...

Also - as you’d expect, the mortality rate of those going into an ICU has come down - you’d expect care plans to improve over time.

So, shift in demographics of population being tested, more tests, potentially more false positives, improved care of those infected, older or at risk population being shielded better, and just plain stats manipulation by those with a vested interest in creating a narrative that it’s all great now (ie Trumptard).

I’m seeing suburb or post code lockdowns in Melbourne in areas right next to the suburb I live in - big spike (relatively speaking) in cases.
 
corona-15.jpg
 
Not as big of a suprise as it would be if the fake news apologised to Big D for calling him a racist for blaming China and an idiot for defunding the WHO.
 
And the “Washington Free Beacon” From which this “news” is sourced from is a unbiased and non-politically aligned source of truth?

Pro-Trump, right-wing conservative Online media mouth piece owned by billionaire vulture capitalist philanthropist (sounds like Tony Stark) & Republican Party publishes pro-Trump, anti-China/WHO article shocker.

I wonder is their any other C-19 news doing the rounds in America at the minute, that paints Trump in a bad light, that roughy wing conservatives would prefer to not hear about.

Maybe those death rate spikes following on from the infection & hospital spikes that Dantes was so keen to pretend weren’t going to happen while warbling about “lag modelling” the other day.
 
What death rate spike would that be? The one imagined up by the socialist anti trump fake news crystal ball?

[article]

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Rising Sharply, but Deaths Are Still Down

This seemingly counterintuitive trend might not last, experts said. But the nation can still learn from the decline. After a minor late-spring lull, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States is [bcolor=rgb(253, 251, 248)]once again on the rise[/bcolor]. States like Arizona, Florida and Texas are seeing some of their highest numbers to date, and as the nation hurtles further into summer, the surge shows few signs of stopping. And yet the virus appears to be killing fewer of the people it infects. In April and May, Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, led to as many as 3,000 deaths per day, and claimed the lives of roughly 7 to 8 percent of Americans known to have been infected. The number of daily deaths is [bcolor=rgb(253, 251, 248)]now closer to 600[/bcolor], and the death rate is less than 5 percent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/health/coronavirus-mortality-testing.html
[/article]
 
Just wait until the hospitals can't cope with the numbers then the death rates will go back up.
 
Athens said:
Just wait until the hospitals can't cope with the numbers then the death rates will go back up.
Click to expand...

Except the hospital turns a tidy profit each and every time they cope. If you think they'll reach a point where they throw their hands up and say no, please, no more, no more profit, we can't cope, too much profit, no mas, no mas... then you don't understand capitalism. The underfunded and not-for-profit NHS will not be so lucky.
 
dantes said:
Except the hospital turns a tidy profit each and every time they cope. If you think they'll reach a point where they throw their hands up and say no, please, no more, no more profit, we can't cope, too much profit, no mas, no mas... then you don't understand capitalism. The underfunded and not-for-profit NHS will not be so lucky.
Click to expand...
Do the hospitals have a magic ability to suddenly make more wards appear?
 
Athens said:
Do the hospitals have a magic ability to suddenly make more wards appear?
Click to expand...

What you call magic, I call investment. If more wards yielded the most return then you can bet they'll appear in double quick time. For now the return is optimised by getting people in and out of the ward as fast as possible, so again as if by magic, the entire global supply of the drug which makes that happen has been magically procured by the US.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom