Definitely looks like Chelsea won 2-0
But this time because we didn't match their bid.
Caice-d'oh!
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But this time because we didn't match their bid.
Lost yesterday - 1-1 means we've started another season trying to play catch up to the top teams.
Lost Caicedo, a player who we really needed
Lost Lavia, a player we may have needed
Need to buy players urgently to compete just for top 4 ... a CB and DM. Will we? Or do we have enough as per Klopp last year?
Need a sporting director to guide this team as this fucking dart throwing won't help.
Because I'm bored, I had a look at how bad Chelsea's FFP situation could be this year.
In short, I reckon they could stand to lose about £180m in this coming year, before any player sales. This is more than enough to breach the limits for both UEFA and PL, even before we add in the additional losses over the last few years (the test is carried out over 3 years). In doing this calculation, I've taken into account their inability to spread player acquisition costs over more than 5 years for deals done in this window (so my numbers are worse than their published accounts will show, but represent what they will have to report to UEFA).
I reckon their player sales towards the end of last year will have netted them about £130m, so even if they were to undertake another desperate fire sale on the same scale, they'd still lose a shit-load of money.
NB - this is old-style FFP, not the new player costs v turnover ratio which came in last year, simply because the wages aspect of this is an unknown quantity. But I reckon they might (just) meet the ratio test (which is 90% for the current year). However, they still need to hit profit targets as well, so they still fail.
So I fully subscribe to the theory that they just think they can do whatever they want and live with the consequences (if any).
And for context, we've never lost more than £50m in any individual year under FSG, even during covid.
In short, I reckon they could stand to lose about £180m in this coming year, before any player sales. This is more than enough to breach the limits for both UEFA and PL, even before we add in the additional losses over the last few years (the test is carried out over 3 years). In doing this calculation, I've taken into account their inability to spread player acquisition costs over more than 5 years for deals done in this window (so my numbers are worse than their published accounts will show, but represent what they will have to report to UEFA).
I reckon their player sales towards the end of last year will have netted them about £130m, so even if they were to undertake another desperate fire sale on the same scale, they'd still lose a shit-load of money.
NB - this is old-style FFP, not the new player costs v turnover ratio which came in last year, simply because the wages aspect of this is an unknown quantity. But I reckon they might (just) meet the ratio test (which is 90% for the current year). However, they still need to hit profit targets as well, so they still fail.
So I fully subscribe to the theory that they just think they can do whatever they want and live with the consequences (if any).
And for context, we've never lost more than £50m in any individual year under FSG, even during covid.
The PL will get to it in 5 or whatever years, but if UEFA can disqualifiy Juventus from European footie, then they'll do the same for Chelsea.
Chelsea seems to think that's a price worth paying for next season
They’ll likely have some sort of “sell players at vastly inflated sums” deal with Saudi.
I don’t get it at all though - for PE, surely they’d want some sort of return on their investment - I can’t see how they get it. Are they really going to flip it to Saudi as soon as multi-club ownership in the same League is allowed? Are they going to stop signing players, thinking that 8 year contracts mean they don’t need to sign anyone anymore, they just suck revenue out of the club for the next decade. Is it tax avoidance or money laundering?
I just don’t see their endgame - Abu Dhabi, tge Glazers & FSG’s strategies make total sense compared to Boehly.
For US investors, the deal is:
- Throw off huge US tax losses over the period of ownership (saves taxes on their other income)
- Sell for a big capital gain at the end (which is taxable at lower rates)
But surely there’d have to be someone willing to spend a ridiculous amount at the end to buy the club?
It’s not like Boehly got Chelsea cheap.
There’s something up, if he’s dobbing in Abromovich for FFP violations, while blatantly going for it as well.
It feels like he’s taking a massive gamble.
We didnt lose yesterday. Arsenal and City played Nottingham Forest and Burnley. Have you gone completely Hal mate?
I want to win the league
We're two points behind the top two teams... the margins are thin when you're up against pep ...
If you want to win the league then you havent gone completely Hal.
Both City and Arsenal will have to go Stamford Bridge as well, and Chelsea will be even better then I reckon.
A draw yesterday was ok.
Yes on a willing buyer, and that's the gamble, but so far everyone has got away with that.
I've said it before, football clubs are just tangible NFTs - almost without exception, there's no income generation there, no real value, and yet as long as there are punters willing to pay serious money for something essentially worthless, the gains will keep flowing.
Hal wants us to win the league, he just doesn't think we can. Depending on the next few weeks I might be joining him
Was winning the league ever a realistic target this season? Considering
- the league got harder with the spending of the other teams
- we lost and have to rebuild the spine of the team (on top of the belated midfield rebuild)
- we finished 5th and 22 pts off the Champion
I thought winning a trophy or two and CL qualification while getting our team identity back was the more feasible target.
- the league got harder with the spending of the other teams
- we lost and have to rebuild the spine of the team (on top of the belated midfield rebuild)
- we finished 5th and 22 pts off the Champion
I thought winning a trophy or two and CL qualification while getting our team identity back was the more feasible target.
They should put more effort into sorting out their own club. I'd be livid if they've travelled over to just do that.
It’s up to the regulators to sort this out, not an individual team. It is self evident Chelsea are fucking the system, no “dobbing in” required.
However, the system is fucked because the action is retroactive. Chelsea spend over £600M buying a new team over 18 months and suffer the consequences as a one off fine/points deduction. They keep the team and their finances are rebaselined with regard to the regulator. So they can then maintain this super-squad without further consequence.
I have no idea why this is a good business strategy but this would be the third time a team’s done it (Chelsea 2003/4, Citeh 2008/10) and so far, no comeback.
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Fans can still have hope we can, that's fine & why wouldn't they when the season's just begun.
Surely this sort of nonsense isn't true. Why should one club have to do this against another? "Telling on them" as @Modo rightly puts it.
What is going on the likes of Chelsea must be obvious to the PL. So what are they doing?
Of course the PL know but left to their own devices, they'll do nothing. I guess, if all this is true, FSG want to apply pressure on them to actually do something about it.
Still... hard to imagine anything too serious will come of it.
Teams do have to submit a budget to the Premier League / UEFA and that ought to flag issues (if done honestly, of course).
The fact that there aren't specific rules preventing them from doing stuff ahead of reporting it doesn't mean that discussions / warnings don't take place. I heard that Everton had been in discussions with the Premier League for months before reporting their figures last year that triggered the enquiry into their finances. I'd be very surprised if Chelsea hadn't been warned about their conduct already, even if sanctions could only be applied retrospectively.
THat sort of sounds worse TBH. If they get warned with a view of the penalty it would incur they can factor that into their planning. Write this season off as transition, any trophy won at risk. Accept no European footy for 24/25 but squad full on for domestic treble
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