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WWIII Return of the Ruskie

There is a big difference between cheering on the war on TV and realizing you yourself (or your husband or son) will be sent to the trenches. I genuinely think Putin has signed his death sentence with that order.

You'd like to think so, but he has such a grip upon the Russian elite that they seem to be entirely cowed by him, and most ordinary Russians appear to swallow Putin's propaganda wholesale.
 
It sounds like a pool of warm bodies to prevent further embarrassment. I wonder if it’ll just move to stalemate in a few weeks if/when Ukraine’s momentum slows.

Looking at that with Macron shaded glasses it might be the best outcome, Putin can make some claim about valiantly holding their important territory in the face of Nato aggression and things can calm down.
 
It sounds like a pool of warm bodies to prevent further embarrassment. I wonder if it’ll just move to stalemate in a few weeks if/when Ukraine’s momentum slows.

Looking at that with Macron shaded glasses it might be the best outcome, Putin can make some claim about valiantly holding their important territory in the face of Nato aggression and things can calm down.

But what's the way forward from that? He can point out whatever wins he wants, no one outside of Russia (bar the usual fuckheads) will recognise it and acknowledge any of the territory as being Russian. They will still remain cut off from the rest of the World and under all sorts of sanctions. He's got Russia playing the victim while repeatedly goading a response. Everyone wants out because they're realising the reality of it all and because they don't want to be caught in the crossfire should it go to all out assault. He's fucked, but he's probably going to fuck up as many people as he can too.
 




Current mood in Russia in 3 tweets. Prices for plane tickets out of Russia instantly rose tenfold, but even so everything is sold out. Ordinary Russians clearly don’t seem keen about being sent to be vaporized by HIMARS in Ukraine.

There is a big difference between cheering on the war on TV and realizing you yourself (or your husband or son) will be sent to the trenches. I genuinely think Putin has signed his death sentence with that order.


That Sotiri lads tweet is being branded as 'presented out of context'.. or in old money lies.




The protests make sense not sure about the running away, if they could do that surely you'd see the writing on the wall a while back? or is this what they see as the first step before Putin goes nuclear
 
You'd like to think so, but he has such a grip upon the Russian elite that they seem to be entirely cowed by him, and most ordinary Russians appear to swallow Putin's propaganda wholesale.

As someone who lived in Russia, it’s complicated. Some people swallow the propaganda wholesale, but they are the minority - most are just cynical and are conditioned to see ulterior motives in everyone and everything. So when the TV tells them to distrust someone (the West, Ukraine, opposition politicians) they are generally easily persuaded, but convincing them that the government wants to do something good for them is harder by order of magnitude. Putin is getting pilloried in the social media.

The videos I’m seeing from Russia in the past 24 hours it’s clear no one is buying the government’s assertions that the war is going pretty well and only people with prior military experience will be mobilized - and sure enough, it looks like everyone regardless of experience or family status is getting draft notices, that’s why the Vnukovo airport looked like this yesterday:
 




Not that I feel particularly sorry for them, but imagine being a Russian man right now. Police are stopping everyone on the street, subways etc to issue draft notices - your options are either being sent as cannon fodder to the front with barely any training or a 10 year jail sentence. No wonder the services where you can get your hand “safely” broken for a fee are popping up everywhere.
 
As someone who lived in Russia, it’s complicated. Some people swallow the propaganda wholesale, but they are the minority - most are just cynical and are conditioned to see ulterior motives in everyone and everything. So when the TV tells them to distrust someone (the West, Ukraine, opposition politicians) they are generally easily persuaded, but convincing them that the government wants to do something good for them is harder by order of magnitude. Putin is getting pilloried in the social media.

The videos I’m seeing from Russia in the past 24 hours it’s clear no one is buying the government’s assertions that the war is going pretty well and only people with prior military experience will be mobilized - and sure enough, it looks like everyone regardless of experience or family status is getting draft notices, that’s why the Vnukovo airport looked like this yesterday:


Are they still looking at an initial 300,000 men to fight.. or are they really looking to ramp that up?

I'm sure they could find loads of country Bumpkin types who'd be well up for joining in rather than the city folk who are obviously already shown they don't believe the lies
 
I read it was proper reservists with adequate training not a full draft. I'm not buying the police randomly handing out draft orders on a subway.
 
Erdogan will explain this as the resounding success of his rebranding the country as Turkiye, leading to swathes of tourists and new foreign exchange reserves that will be lavished upon his people as soon as whichever one of his idiot nephews is in charge of the central bank has transferred the usual 10% for the real big guy.
 
Being an idiot nephew, he might make a mistake on the calculator and transfer 90%, such is life, mistakes happen, you live and you learn.
 
Erdogan will explain this as the resounding success of his rebranding the country as Turkiye, leading to swathes of tourists and new foreign exchange reserves that will be lavished upon his people as soon as whichever one of his idiot nephews is in charge of the central bank has transferred the usual 10% for the real big guy.

Right wing trukish party might not like it.
Plenty of attacks against Syrians in recent months.. as Turkey struggles with inflation and the lira losing all value.
 
I read it was proper reservists with adequate training not a full draft. I'm not buying the police randomly handing out draft orders on a subway.

That’s what Shoigu said and evidently it was a lie - there is an avalanche of evidence in the past 24 hours that people without any military background whatsoever are getting drafted as a matter of policy, not isolated incidents. Even Russians are shocked - no one expected it to be this bad. 300,000 number also seems to be a lie.
 
They're serving draft papers on the protesters they remove from the streets. Videos of it are all over Twitter. It's press-ganging 21st century style.
 
My Russian friend who I know from my time in the states posted on Facebook that he's sad and confused by the actions of the state and he's not ready to fight in a war for the wrong reasons.

He hadn't posted anything else (about the war) before now, although he was never that active in Facebook anyway. I'm not sure if he can be considered a "typical Russian" as he studied in the states for five or six years and has friends from all over the place. I can remember him criticising Putin way in the past. He's white and from Moscow so his chances of getting conscripted are pretty slim...
 
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Why wouldn't you feel sorry for any regular man who doesn't support Putin or the war, now being forced into the army?

A good friend of mine managed to cross the border into Finland last night, this morning the border is closed. He is in draft age.
It is good that European countries are now considering how to handle their asylum policies. It is not an easy decision. I look forward to see what is decided.
 



This will become a village of the Amazons… Seriously though, it’s pretty insane. Even Margarita Simonyan, the head of RT and one of the most bloodthirsty bitches in Russian state media is aghast at how the reality of the mobilization is so different to what they were promised by Shoigu and Putin - people are being rounded up on the streets, students with no military background are getting forcibly mobilized right during classes, people voluntarily going to the military office to correct an obvious mistake are getting drafted and put on the bus right then and there etc etc.

It seems that the combination of lack of proper databases for military-age males (I read that the Soviet-time system for accounting and tracking the potential draftees has been destroyed in all regions other than Moscow) and the immense pressure on local authorities’ to fulfill the quotas here and now, whatever the cost, has led to total chaos. The orderly system where only the people with military skills and background are getting drafted and there are reasonable exceptions and categories of priority based on family situation etc exists only in Shoigu’s imagination. It’s depressing to see how so far most are complying without any meaningful resistance, but it will probably change once they start realizing that the promises that they won’t be sent to the front, will receive proper training and equipment etc are also just blatant lies.
 
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How many weeks will it take before this army of old fellas, odd balls and IT experts come face to face with a motivated and highly trained Ukrainian army?
 
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