I don't think it was stupid, Avvy. For all our hopelessness at times we still hadn't slipped behind in the race, and that's because the others competing for fourth were equally hopeless equally often. They however have gotten their act together better than we have as the season's gone on.
As for Rafa, I think that forecast was an excess of self-belief rather than imbecility per se, though you could argue they amount to the same thing in the end.