The race

[binomial]

View: https://x.com/scottjwillis/status/1883235878878765166

Or maybe they were just never that good to begin with and showing you can beat Leicester, Southampton and Spurs (threw the game away giving away 2 pens) is no real indication you're title contenders.

You can't win titles with clowns like Sanchez and Pupurella in your side, c'est impossible.

& Sancho should go back to the Bundesliga, he isn't a Prem player.

 

[keniget]

City are starting to look dangerous again.

 

[Modo]

Man C are coming for us.

They're in fighting montage mode right now:

 

[Frogfish]

City are starting to look dangerous again.

I watched the match. Chelsea should have been out of sight before they scored! Both defences horrendous.
To see how dangerous they are refer to midweek vs. PSG not this calamity of a Chelsea side with now 1 win in 7.

 

[My_Blood_Bleeds_Red]

Can't believe Marmoush is already playing for them.

Only a few weeks ago, i was hoping we'd sign him !

We're skint aren't we ?

 

[ibromurph]

City are starting to look dangerous again.

Need them taking points off Arsenal.

Hope they go out of the CL though.

 

[Squiggles]

Tf happened to Forest? I know Bournemouth are on it, but that's a crazy result. Sacking O'Neill for Ireola has been a master stroke.

Bit annoying Arsenal won, but it was expected. Playing with ten may have knackered them out more I guess. It's another game down whilst maintaining the gap.

 

[the count]

Need them taking points off Arsenal.

Hope they go out of the CL though.

It might be in our immediate interest for them to progress to the playoff's as that tie will be around our league game against them,
They would have an important midweek game to play while we would have a full week to prepare for the league match.

 

[Buddha]

City are starting to look dangerous again.

Not to us…but good timing for them to fuck up a brittle Arsenal next week…

 

[moron]

Look we need signings, just one player either in midfield, or a low block breaker

 

[Farkmaster]

City are starting to look dangerous again.

They just made fucking PSG look like mentality giants by completely capitulating.

 

[Dreambeliever]

City are starting to look dangerous again.

Too far back even if they do win 20 odd games in a row.

 

[Dreambeliever]

Need them taking points off Arsenal.

Hope they go out of the CL though.

Exactly this!

Beat Arsenal please then bomb out of the FA Cup and CL.

 

[Dreambeliever]

Tf happened to Forest? I know Bournemouth are on it, but that's a crazy result. Sacking O'Neill for Ireola has been a master stroke.

Bit annoying Arsenal won, but it was expected. Playing with ten may have knackered them out more I guess. It's another game down whilst maintaining the gap.

I benched all my Forest defenders in FF. Saw a hammering coming. Bournemouth are playing great football, full of confidence and have runners everyone who are on form. It was exactly the kind of game Forest would think they should be going there trying to compete and leave themselves exposed and it’s exactly what happened.
Kluiverts shooting from distance is impressive but Semenyo is the player I like best from them. He’s suit our style.

 

[Dreambeliever]

It might be in our immediate interest for them to progress to the playoff's as that tie will be around our league game against them,
They would have an important midweek game to play while we would have a full week to prepare for the league match.

Surprised the Everton game hasn’t been penciled in for then.

 

[ibromurph]

It might be in our immediate interest for them to progress to the playoff's as that tie will be around our league game against them,
They would have an important midweek game to play while we would have a full week to prepare for the league match.

Ok, well, let's hope they win the midweek game. Get some confidence/momentum, beat Arsenal... and then flop in the playoff round.

 

[ibromurph]

I benched all my Forest defenders in FF. Saw a hammering coming. Bournemouth are playing great football, full of confidence and have runners everyone who are on form. It was exactly the kind of game Forest would think they should be going there trying to compete and leave themselves exposed and it’s exactly what happened.
Kluiverts shooting from distance is impressive but Semenyo is the player I like best from them. He’s suit our style.

Next weekend will be a shoot out.

They have attackers who can hurt us, but we've got attackers who can hurt them.

I think our CBs and GK are a bit better than theirs though. Plus they are in a bit of an injury crisis, and have little to look to from the bench.

As long as our FBs aren't complete wank, we should out gun them.

 

[Modo]

Next weekend will be a shoot out.

They have attackers who can hurt us, but we've got attackers who can hurt them.

I think our CBs and GK are a bit better than theirs though. Plus they are in a bit of an injury crisis, and have little to look to from the bench.

As long as our FBs aren't complete wank, we should out gun them.

Most importantly we have a stronger midfield.
Win the midfield, win the game I say.

 

[My_Blood_Bleeds_Red]

I’ve got a really bad feeling about Bournemouth.

You just know they will target our FBs.

 

[Dreambeliever]

Most importantly we have a stronger midfield.
Win the midfield, win the game I say.

I’m worried about them hitting us at pace on the break if we are sloppy in possession.

 

[Frogfish]

I’ve got a really bad feeling about Bournemouth.

You just know they will target our FBs.

I don't think there's been a match this season you haven't had ' a really bad feeling' or it being 'a banana skin'!

Ditto Dreamy.

 

[My_Blood_Bleeds_Red]

I don't think there's been a match this season you haven't had ' a really bad feeling' or it being 'a banana skin'!

Ditto Dreamy.

What rubbish are you on about ? Are you sure you haven't confused me with someone else ?

I'm like one of the most bullish and optimistic poster on here when it comes to match day predictions, so much so ive been accused of jinxing them even !

Is it that time of the month again for you ?

 

[Beamrider]

City have just played a few teams who were shite and / or out of form. They let slip a two-goal lead at Brentford and were handed their arses on a plate by PSG. If they're not out of the CL by 10pm on Weds then their up-coming fixtures will take even more of a toll on them with a play-off to slot in.
It's only one game I know but the new lad at the back looked hopelessly out of his depth and Marmoush was giving me "Egyptian Nunez" vibes. Just first impressions but we live in hope.

 

[Farkmaster]

We live in hate too, don't forget hate!

 

[rurikbird]

City have just played a few teams who were shite and / or out of form. They let slip a two-goal lead at Brentford and were handed their arses on a plate by PSG. If they're not out of the CL by 10pm on Weds then their up-coming fixtures will take even more of a toll on them with a play-off to slot in.
It's only one game I know but the new lad at the back looked hopelessly out of his depth and Marmoush was giving me "Egyptian Nunez" vibes. Just first impressions but we live in hope.

Marmoush was positive and lively, but strayed offside all the time - perhaps just over-eager. Let’s wait and see whether Pep will coach any aggressive instincts out of him and turn him into another Grealish.

 

[Dreambeliever]

If we can win our two games and City beat Arsenal we’ll be 12pts clear. That would feel insurmountable.

On the flip the lead could be as little as 3 pts with no games in hand!

Huge week.

 

[MomoWASright]

If we can win our two games and City beat Arsenal we’ll be 12pts clear. That would feel insurmountable.

On the flip the lead could be as little as 3 pts with no games in hand!

Huge week.

Why is it a huge week? We only play in the league once in the next two and a bit weeks.

 

[dogboy]

Why is it a huge week? We only play in the league once in the next two and a bit weeks.

Where have you been? Every week is a huge week/must win/banana skin/Man City are coming.

 

[Farkmaster]

Every league game is a big one though.

 

[Frogfish]

Time to update this. :

Especially the Bolded in Red bit.

Just a reminder in case anyone STILL thinks City or Arsenal can go on a 10 game winning streak :-

Arsenal are 11-7-2 to date (55% win percentage) (2.0 ppg)
Forest 12-5-4 (57% win percentage) (2.0 ppg)
Chelsea 10-7-4 (48% win percentage) (2.0 ppg)
City 10-5-6 (48% win percentage) (2.0 ppg)

7 points may not look like a lot at this stage, and with 18 games to go, however looking at it statistically and not as ... if we lose 2 games and draw one whilst they win 3 on the bounce. Which statistically is high unlikely.

We have a 70% win percentage and 2.35 points per game (vs. their 2.0 ppg). If we and Arsenal were to have reverse fortunes in the second half of the season and we fall to 2.0 ppg (the same as the rest of the Top 5) then we'll end up on 83 points (less than my forecast of 87 points).

To catch up with us Arsenal would require 43 points from 18 games (having achieved 40 points from 20 games to date) to send it to GD. A record of something like W13 D4 L1 over the last 18 games whilst we would have to have something akin to W11 D3 L4. To reach my forecast of 87 pts Arsenal will need W15 D2 L1.

Whilst for sure I can see us dropping off (from a 70% win percentage) due to tougher fixtures (aways) and the CL, however I can't see us winning barely just 50% of our games whilst losing 4 games in 18 (see Localny's fixture list I've posted below). Arsenal need to seriously up their game and whilst out of the FAC they will also have CL fixtures to contend with and currently a long injury list. It is though just a 2 horse race.

Latest Odds this morning:
Liverpool 4/11
Arsenal 4/1
City 33/1
Forest 66/1
Chelsea 66/1

Not doing a full update yet but :

To reach my forecast of us reaching 87 points we need W10 D4 L2. But let's say we don't do as well and get W8 D4 L4

That would still mean Arsenal needing 34 points so W10 D4 L1 (or a variation of).
City would need 40 points so W13 D1 L1.

And it's likely we'd have a better goal difference so they'd both need an extra point on top. Every game where we match each other (whether W D or L) makes it exponentially more difficult to be caught. Still possible of course but I just don't see this team melting down like we did last season.