Okay, for the last 2 seasons I've endeavoured to copy all my bets into this forum prior to kick off BUT it's proved far too time consuming and also impossible as I place so many "in-running" bets that make it impossible to keep updating thing in here.
This season I'm gonna highlight what I think is the "wrongest" price available for the weekends football. The wrongest price always offers the best chance of making a profit.
I cringe when i go to a bookies and see losers marking their football coupon and sticking down United to beat Hull City, Chelsea to beat Stoke, Man City to beat Palace etc with no regard for the prices.
When I look at a coupon I may have a reasonable idea who i think might win the game but i genuinely look at the prices of all three options (home win, away win or draw) because in many cases I bet on a team I think will lose!
2 of my bigger wins last season were on teams I thought would lose but they both won (unfortunately both against LFC).
I thought we'd beat WBA at home but when i saw WBA were something like 14/1 I had to back them as I estimated their correct price at about 6/1 so in my mind the price was over 100% out! Similarly when we played villa at home and they were 10/1 to win whereas I had priced them at about 5/1. I expected us to win both games but the prices available on Villa and WBA were "too wrong" to ignore.
I rarely bet on any team unless I think the price is 20%+ out of whack with my estimate.
This season I'll highlight what I consider the wrongest price each week, this means we will have many losing bets but overall should make a significant profit.
I'll try and post my tip at least a day before the game but for the first few weeks I'll have to wait until the teams are confirmed at 2:30 on match day because all the teams have so many new players for me to evaluate before I get into my stride.
This season I'm gonna highlight what I think is the "wrongest" price available for the weekends football. The wrongest price always offers the best chance of making a profit.
I cringe when i go to a bookies and see losers marking their football coupon and sticking down United to beat Hull City, Chelsea to beat Stoke, Man City to beat Palace etc with no regard for the prices.
When I look at a coupon I may have a reasonable idea who i think might win the game but i genuinely look at the prices of all three options (home win, away win or draw) because in many cases I bet on a team I think will lose!
2 of my bigger wins last season were on teams I thought would lose but they both won (unfortunately both against LFC).
I thought we'd beat WBA at home but when i saw WBA were something like 14/1 I had to back them as I estimated their correct price at about 6/1 so in my mind the price was over 100% out! Similarly when we played villa at home and they were 10/1 to win whereas I had priced them at about 5/1. I expected us to win both games but the prices available on Villa and WBA were "too wrong" to ignore.
I rarely bet on any team unless I think the price is 20%+ out of whack with my estimate.
This season I'll highlight what I consider the wrongest price each week, this means we will have many losing bets but overall should make a significant profit.
I'll try and post my tip at least a day before the game but for the first few weeks I'll have to wait until the teams are confirmed at 2:30 on match day because all the teams have so many new players for me to evaluate before I get into my stride.
