Is potential now overvalued?

[Rosco]

For years we've heard how our strategy was to buy young players with resale value - despite us clearly not doing just that.

And that was supposed to represent moneyball. But moneyball is finding inefficiencies in the market and exploiting them - typically via nuanced statistical analysis.

But looking around at the moment, with Sterling at £50m, Shaw last year at £30m Illaramendi at £30m, Mangala at whatever you think the price was.

Shaquiri is also an interesting one, last year when he was less of a known quantity he was being quoted at twice what he's available for now.

So is potential the new thing everyone is paying over the top for or is their something else going on?

 

[Ryan]

Erm... It's gone on forever. United paid 30M each for Rooney and Ferdinand when they'd done next to nothing.

Buying players who are going to be potentially good isn't a new thing Ross.

 

[6TimesaRed]

Erm... It's gone on forever. United paid 30M each for Rooney and Ferdinand when they'd done next to nothing.

Buying players who are going to be potentially good isn't a new thing Ross.

Was about to say that.. SWP is another that springs to mind..


Anderson and Nani too.. UTD paid loads for them..

Prices are becoming more inflated now due to the Home Grown rule.. I feel that dictates the fee a little bit more for young players with 'potential'

8 players have to be Home Grown in the PL squad of 25

 

[cloggypop]

It's called inflation.

 

[Rosco]

Erm... It's gone on forever. United paid 30M each for Rooney and Ferdinand when they'd done next to nothing.

Buying players who are going to be potentially good isn't a new thing Ross.

But it's hard to say they were overvalued. United got those spot on

 

[Ryan]

But it's hard to say they were overvalued. United got those spot on

Because they turned out to be great.

30M for Ferdinand at the time was mental.

I'm kinda struggling to see what your point is here.

 

[Rosco]

Because they turned out to be great.

30M for Ferdinand at the time was mental.

I'm kinda struggling to see what your point is here.

I can see that.

I think you're mixing overvalued up with expensive

 

[Squiggles]

It's arguably hyperinflation compared to the rest of the market though. It's worth discussing.

 

[Ryan]

Anderson & Nani - 32M
Tadic and whatever that other kid's name was - 16M
Walcott after 11 games - 12M
Rooney - 30M
Mikel - 15M
Neymar - 70M

And billions more like them bought for fucking fortunes from shit leagues or shit clubs cos there was potential.

 

[Rosco]

It's arguably hyperinflation compared to the rest of the market though. It's worth discussing.

If it is - why are so many older decent players free agents and available for nothing?

Juve built a league winner and CL runner up out of free agent experienced players.

 

[Rosco]

Anderson & Nani - 32M
Tadic and whatever that other kid's name was - 16M
Walcott after 11 games - 12M
Rooney - 30M
Mikel - 15M
Neymar - 70M

And billions more like them bought for fucking fortunes from shit leagues or shit clubs cos there was potential.

Yes, I understand other players have had potential and moved for fees.

I think this might be above your station Ryan. You just go about drawing X's and O's on your whiteboard there

 

[Ryan]

Yes, I understand other players have had potential and moved for fees.

I think this might be above your station Ryan. You just go about drawing X's and O's on your whiteboard there

So is potential the new thing everyone is paying over the top for

^^Your question.

No, it isn't, it's happened forever.

Not my fault if your thread's shit.

 

[Mystic]

You've just got to look at David Bentley at £18million, Anderson at £32million / 2, Mangala at £40million or Jack Rodwell at £15million to know that potential is massively overpriced, however as Ryan keeps saying, thats nothing new.

 

[Ryan]

You've just got to look at David Bentley at £18million, Anderson at £32million / 2, Mangala at £40million or Jack Rodwell at £15million to know that potential is massively overpriced, however as Ryan keeps saying, thats nothing new.

You're reading this wrong Mystic. I know Ross has asked if buying players for potential is the new thing but that's not what he actually means.

 

[Ryan]

I feel bad for Ross now. He must have had something in his head that sounded valuable and post-worthy, but it hasn't come across in print.

Rosco - you wanna give me a ring and tell me what it is you're trying to say and I'll type it up for you mate?

 

[6TimesaRed]

I think Ross has a point to a degree..

Since the implementation of the Home Grown rule in 2011.. Though its nothing new.. buying players with potential is more active that it was prior to 2011...

 

[Rosco]

I feel bad for Ross now. He must have had something in his head that sounded valuable and post-worthy, but it hasn't come across in print.

Rosco - you wanna give me a ring and tell me what it is you're trying to say and I'll type it up for you mate?

I'm busy in the Supreme Court at the moment

 

[Rosco]

You're reading this wrong Mystic. I know Ross has asked if buying players for potential is the new thing but that's not what he actually means.

You still haven't grasped what I've said.

I need an Internet crayon

 

[Oliver Twist]

I'm busy in the Supreme Court at the moment

Hope you get off, Rosco.

 

[Rosco]

Hope you get off, Rosco.

They haven't caught me yet.

My job is to keep Ireland white today

 

[Oliver Twist]

They haven't caught me yet.

Good work.

FWIW, I see what you are saying. And I think with the amount of money sloshing round in oil barrels, clubs are paying more for potential (like they are for everything else) but I'd say there is no great increase in value overall.

 

[Lippy]

For years we've heard how our strategy was to buy young players with resale value - despite us clearly not doing just that.

And that was supposed to represent moneyball. But moneyball is finding inefficiencies in the market and exploiting them - typically via nuanced statistical analysis.

But looking around at the moment, with Sterling at £50m, Shaw last year at £30m Illaramendi at £30m, Mangala at whatever you think the price was.

Shaquiri is also an interesting one, last year when he was less of a known quantity he was being quoted at twice what he's available for now.

So is potential the new thing everyone is paying over the top for or is their something else going on?

I think Raheems price is being pushed up as well as city are desperate for homegrown players. And Raheem is a bit of an expert when it comes to homegrown

 

[FoxForceFive]

You still haven't grasped what I've said.

I need an Internet crayon

Hahaha.

*notes that putdown into memory for later usage*

 

[keniget]

Good work.

FWIW, I see what you are saying. And I think with the amount of money sloshing round in oil barrels, clubs are paying more for potential (like they are for everything else) but I'd say there is no great increase in value overall.

I think the emergence of Chelsea and the other super rich clubs have pushed everyone in that direction but it's also come at a time where other clubs have seen their buying power shrink considerably due to economic and other conditions - see Spain and Italy.

Dunno... would Juve have bought Morata 10-15 years ago?

 

[MaBigTip]

I get the feeling that agents make the most money from transfers. But, when signing on a free or renegotiating a contract its the players that make big money and the agent doesn't do as well. Any chance that has a correlation to more young players transferring for higher fees? If a player then manages to become older, wiser, more successful and confident, maybe they choose whats best for them?

Just a (probably inaccurate) hypothesis.

 

[Fabio]

I do think potential is overvalued financially

Yes it pays off some times, but then you get saido berahino getting touted for 25m. All odd

 

[kingjulian]

Hope you get off, Rosco.

The crayons they gave you at supreme court not fit for purpose?

 

[FoxForceFive]

It's called inflation.

This is Ross we're talking about, so it's actually digestion, it just looks like inflation.

 

[mark1975]

Rooney and Ferdinand were pretty disproportionate at the time, so they aren't the greatest examples really because it took years for many other players of similar ilk to go for similar fees, it was only really on the back of Chelsea that it exploded. But I do think that did create a split market of established players and young players. We now see a situation where Sterling can go for £50m, while Benzema can go for £18m, that's completely disproportionate by anyone's reckoning.

So yeah, it's overvalued.