Henry pitches in with formula to pull Reds' socks up - Long read
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I don't think this article is entirely accurate. If you want to use their management of the Red Sox as a benchmark:
1) They just gave a 1 year extension to 35 year-old David Ortiz ($12.5 million) - a player who ostensibly plays one position (DH). It would be like us giving an over-the-hill striker from our glory days a contract to come off the bench every game in the 70th minute.
2) They have shied away from keeping players with 'personal problems'. Most notably, Manny Ramirez (who had motivation issues and his head shoved squarely up his arse).
3) They are second in the MLB in spending (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/salaries/_/name/bos/boston-red-sox). Oakland - a real 'money ball' team - is 27th on that list. A good example of how they don't follow the 'money ball' principle is Daisuke Matsuzaka (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daisuke_Matsuzaka), for whom they spent $51,111,111.11 to outbid teams like the Texas Rangers, New York Mets, and New York Yankees just to win the rights to sign him to a contract. And he was 26 years old at the time and hadn't played a game outside of Japan.
I think there are a lot of untruths about NESV floating around right now, and I think people have to chill out and let them do for us what they've done to the Red Sox - which is turn them into a perennial league challenger that's financially secure and with a fantastic youth system.
1) They just gave a 1 year extension to 35 year-old David Ortiz ($12.5 million) - a player who ostensibly plays one position (DH). It would be like us giving an over-the-hill striker from our glory days a contract to come off the bench every game in the 70th minute.
2) They have shied away from keeping players with 'personal problems'. Most notably, Manny Ramirez (who had motivation issues and his head shoved squarely up his arse).
3) They are second in the MLB in spending (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/salaries/_/name/bos/boston-red-sox). Oakland - a real 'money ball' team - is 27th on that list. A good example of how they don't follow the 'money ball' principle is Daisuke Matsuzaka (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daisuke_Matsuzaka), for whom they spent $51,111,111.11 to outbid teams like the Texas Rangers, New York Mets, and New York Yankees just to win the rights to sign him to a contract. And he was 26 years old at the time and hadn't played a game outside of Japan.
I think there are a lot of untruths about NESV floating around right now, and I think people have to chill out and let them do for us what they've done to the Red Sox - which is turn them into a perennial league challenger that's financially secure and with a fantastic youth system.
[quote author=surly link=topic=42639.msg1218190#msg1218190 date=1289747119]
I don't think this article is entirely accurate. If you want to use their management of the Red Sox as a benchmark:
1) They just gave a 1 year extension to 35 year-old David Ortiz ($12.5 million) - a player who ostensibly plays one position (DH). It would be like us giving an over-the-hill striker from our glory days a contract to come off the bench every game in the 70th minute.
2) They have shied away from keeping players with 'personal problems'. Most notably, Manny Ramirez (who had motivation issues and his head shoved squarely up his arse).
3) They are second in the MLB in spending (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/salaries/_/name/bos/boston-red-sox). Oakland - a real 'money ball' team - is 27th on that list. A good example of how they don't follow the 'money ball' principle is Daisuke Matsuzaka (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daisuke_Matsuzaka), for whom they spent $51,111,111.11 to outbid teams like the Texas Rangers, New York Mets, and New York Yankees just to win the rights to sign him to a contract. And he was 26 years old at the time and hadn't played a game outside of Japan.
I think there are a lot of untruths about NESV floating around right now, and I think people have to chill out and let them do for us what they've done to the Red Sox - which is turn them into a perennial league challenger that's financially secure and with a fantastic youth system.
[/quote]
Good post, Surly. Hope you're right.
I don't think this article is entirely accurate. If you want to use their management of the Red Sox as a benchmark:
1) They just gave a 1 year extension to 35 year-old David Ortiz ($12.5 million) - a player who ostensibly plays one position (DH). It would be like us giving an over-the-hill striker from our glory days a contract to come off the bench every game in the 70th minute.
2) They have shied away from keeping players with 'personal problems'. Most notably, Manny Ramirez (who had motivation issues and his head shoved squarely up his arse).
3) They are second in the MLB in spending (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/salaries/_/name/bos/boston-red-sox). Oakland - a real 'money ball' team - is 27th on that list. A good example of how they don't follow the 'money ball' principle is Daisuke Matsuzaka (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daisuke_Matsuzaka), for whom they spent $51,111,111.11 to outbid teams like the Texas Rangers, New York Mets, and New York Yankees just to win the rights to sign him to a contract. And he was 26 years old at the time and hadn't played a game outside of Japan.
I think there are a lot of untruths about NESV floating around right now, and I think people have to chill out and let them do for us what they've done to the Red Sox - which is turn them into a perennial league challenger that's financially secure and with a fantastic youth system.
[/quote]
Good post, Surly. Hope you're right.
I'm firmly with Ross in thinking that use of sabermetric-style statistical analysis can only bring benefit. Time will tell how much of that approach will translate over to football but I don't see how it's a bad thing to be using a more vigorous analysis and taking a different approach from the one that has unearthed past gems like Antonio Barragan or marquee signings like Fernando Morientes.
And yes, the Red Sox have not shied away from splashing the cash on a player (aging or otherwise) if management deemed him to be the right piece for the puzzle. Some of the assumptions and criticisms in threads like these baffle me.
And yes, the Red Sox have not shied away from splashing the cash on a player (aging or otherwise) if management deemed him to be the right piece for the puzzle. Some of the assumptions and criticisms in threads like these baffle me.
Where exactly in the article is there anything substantive showing that NESV intend to wholly revolutionize football by using statistical systems more suited for baseball.
Oh, that's right, it doesn't. NESV are more than just a single methodology, like any decent business.
I tell you what WOULD be a revolution, is a bit more deliberate, long term thinking about our transfers, and making better ones. I think that's probably their goal. Perhaps they'll use some of their applicable best practices from baseball. Great.
The only people "quacking on" about sabermetrics being applied in some sweeping way to Liverpool are the press, who googled Henry, learned a buzz word, and are now harping on about it, and will do until the end of time.
Oh, that's right, it doesn't. NESV are more than just a single methodology, like any decent business.
I tell you what WOULD be a revolution, is a bit more deliberate, long term thinking about our transfers, and making better ones. I think that's probably their goal. Perhaps they'll use some of their applicable best practices from baseball. Great.
The only people "quacking on" about sabermetrics being applied in some sweeping way to Liverpool are the press, who googled Henry, learned a buzz word, and are now harping on about it, and will do until the end of time.
Exactly, Fark. I do think (and hope) they will be trying to improve scouting systems and adopt a more effective transfer policy than what we've had the past several seasons but only an idiot would think they are going to wholesale port over a tool used in a completely unrelated sport. While their overall transfer philosophy may port over, clearly they will need to find which parts of it translate into this sport and how.
Just as a matter of interest, how long do clearly struggling baseball coaches get to pull things round?
To kinda reiterate what others have said, sabermetric thinking and analysis didn't decide that there was one best way to make transfer /contract decisions and that was the only way. And since Moneyball was mentioned I'd add that it would be a misinterpretation of the book to suggest it.
The whole ethos was to find what was at the time undervalued and overvalued and take advantage of that in your decision making. It changes from time to time. The press and some on here have concluded that the way to get value is buying young players that will have resale value, that might be true now. But what happens when everybody tries to do it ? Clearly the cost of younger players will go up and the value diminishes so it might turn out that there's more value in older players. That has kind of happened in baseball recently. The trick is to identify when it's happening.
In Moneyball the main example throughout was that OBP was undervalued by teams because they didn't realise the correlation it had with win totals. The Oakland A's did realise it and consistently turned out teams that punched above their weight, their payroll was dwarfed by everyone around them but they outperformed competitors. The difficulty began when everyone else cottoned on to their strategy and copied it, like the Red Sox did.
The whole ethos was to find what was at the time undervalued and overvalued and take advantage of that in your decision making. It changes from time to time. The press and some on here have concluded that the way to get value is buying young players that will have resale value, that might be true now. But what happens when everybody tries to do it ? Clearly the cost of younger players will go up and the value diminishes so it might turn out that there's more value in older players. That has kind of happened in baseball recently. The trick is to identify when it's happening.
In Moneyball the main example throughout was that OBP was undervalued by teams because they didn't realise the correlation it had with win totals. The Oakland A's did realise it and consistently turned out teams that punched above their weight, their payroll was dwarfed by everyone around them but they outperformed competitors. The difficulty began when everyone else cottoned on to their strategy and copied it, like the Red Sox did.
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=42639.msg1218403#msg1218403 date=1289777169]
The whole ethos was to find what was at the time undervalued and overvalued and take advantage of that in your decision making. It changes from time to time. The press and some on here have concluded that the way to get value is buying young players that will have resale value, that might be true now. But what happens when everybody tries to do it ? Clearly the cost of younger players will go up and the value diminishes so it might turn out that there's more value in older players. That has kind of happened in baseball recently. The trick is to identify when it's happening.
[/quote]
That's just a description of good business practice.
Is there anything specific to "sabermetric thinking" that is more involved than just making sports run like a more sophisticated business?
The whole ethos was to find what was at the time undervalued and overvalued and take advantage of that in your decision making. It changes from time to time. The press and some on here have concluded that the way to get value is buying young players that will have resale value, that might be true now. But what happens when everybody tries to do it ? Clearly the cost of younger players will go up and the value diminishes so it might turn out that there's more value in older players. That has kind of happened in baseball recently. The trick is to identify when it's happening.
[/quote]
That's just a description of good business practice.
Is there anything specific to "sabermetric thinking" that is more involved than just making sports run like a more sophisticated business?
[quote author=Farkmaster link=topic=42639.msg1218407#msg1218407 date=1289778019]
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=42639.msg1218403#msg1218403 date=1289777169]
The whole ethos was to find what was at the time undervalued and overvalued and take advantage of that in your decision making. It changes from time to time. The press and some on here have concluded that the way to get value is buying young players that will have resale value, that might be true now. But what happens when everybody tries to do it ? Clearly the cost of younger players will go up and the value diminishes so it might turn out that there's more value in older players. That has kind of happened in baseball recently. The trick is to identify when it's happening.
[/quote]
That's just a description of good business practice.
Is there anything specific to "sabermetric thinking" that is more involved than just making sports run like a more sophisticated business?
[/quote]
But it's not a description of many football clubs.
A lot of sabermetrics revolves around in game strategy too.
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=42639.msg1218403#msg1218403 date=1289777169]
The whole ethos was to find what was at the time undervalued and overvalued and take advantage of that in your decision making. It changes from time to time. The press and some on here have concluded that the way to get value is buying young players that will have resale value, that might be true now. But what happens when everybody tries to do it ? Clearly the cost of younger players will go up and the value diminishes so it might turn out that there's more value in older players. That has kind of happened in baseball recently. The trick is to identify when it's happening.
[/quote]
That's just a description of good business practice.
Is there anything specific to "sabermetric thinking" that is more involved than just making sports run like a more sophisticated business?
[/quote]
But it's not a description of many football clubs.
A lot of sabermetrics revolves around in game strategy too.
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=42639.msg1218409#msg1218409 date=1289778423]
[quote author=Farkmaster link=topic=42639.msg1218407#msg1218407 date=1289778019]
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=42639.msg1218403#msg1218403 date=1289777169]
The whole ethos was to find what was at the time undervalued and overvalued and take advantage of that in your decision making. It changes from time to time. The press and some on here have concluded that the way to get value is buying young players that will have resale value, that might be true now. But what happens when everybody tries to do it ? Clearly the cost of younger players will go up and the value diminishes so it might turn out that there's more value in older players. That has kind of happened in baseball recently. The trick is to identify when it's happening.
[/quote]
That's just a description of good business practice.
Is there anything specific to "sabermetric thinking" that is more involved than just making sports run like a more sophisticated business?
[/quote]
But it's not a description of many football clubs.
A lot of sabermetrics revolves around in game strategy too.
[/quote]
Agreed. But is there more to it than that, off the field?
[quote author=Farkmaster link=topic=42639.msg1218407#msg1218407 date=1289778019]
[quote author=Rosco link=topic=42639.msg1218403#msg1218403 date=1289777169]
The whole ethos was to find what was at the time undervalued and overvalued and take advantage of that in your decision making. It changes from time to time. The press and some on here have concluded that the way to get value is buying young players that will have resale value, that might be true now. But what happens when everybody tries to do it ? Clearly the cost of younger players will go up and the value diminishes so it might turn out that there's more value in older players. That has kind of happened in baseball recently. The trick is to identify when it's happening.
[/quote]
That's just a description of good business practice.
Is there anything specific to "sabermetric thinking" that is more involved than just making sports run like a more sophisticated business?
[/quote]
But it's not a description of many football clubs.
A lot of sabermetrics revolves around in game strategy too.
[/quote]
Agreed. But is there more to it than that, off the field?
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