It's one thing taking a statistical chance on a player - quite another on a manager who affects the destiny of the club.Fair enough. I think the advantage of data-driven approach - when done well - is that it allows you to unearth potential gems before their quality has a chance to translate into obvious success and they become hot property. By the time media and fans catch on, it’s usually too late.
It’s a pretty obvious concept with players, but when it comes to evaluating coaches I’m thinking of someone like Brendan Rodgers who went through a couple cycles of being linked with big jobs in seasons when he was doing great at Leicester and the likes of Arsenal wanted him and other periods when he was almost a laughingstock - unlike certain big clubs who still make their hiring decisions mostly based on publicity and other non-football factors, a data-driven approach would probably show a truer picture of Rodgers’ strengths and shortcomings as a manager, correcting for randomness and luck. We all know the story of how Edwards hired Klopp on the back of a disastrous season at Dortmund after concluding based on numbers that it was nothing but random misfortune and didn’t reflect on his quality as a coach.
All of this to say, it’s always easier to swim with the media tide, to chase the next big thing - this season it’s been Alonso and Amorim, next season it will probably be someone completely different. Fans want a name they know and constantly hear in the press, it feels safer, but it’s an illusion. I feel much better about getting someone who satisfies specific underlying statistical parameters that were set before any names were even considered - and I’m sure that’s exactly the process that led our recruitment team to Slot.
I’ll finish where I started - all of this works only if people in charge of the operation really know what they are doing. Stats provide you with a few kernels of useful information buried in an ocean of noise and you can go totally astray if you don’t know what to look for. Fortunately we have a team that have done it successfully before, so I think their chances of getting this appointment spot-on are reasonably high. And as for media narratives or whether fans initially feel “underwhelmed,” I honestly couldn’t give a toss.
This guy has all the potential issues I had with Amorim, except on another level. Managing in a crap league, no real experience in Europe (failed to get out of the group stage, though with wins against Lazio and Celtic the feathers in his cap), no experience of managing at a top club or top players etc. The difference between Klopp's appointment and Slot's (if it happens) is huge.
What we need after Klopp is tactical evolution, I've no idea exactly what that looks like but I didn't want a Klopp replica in miniature.
There was a great option, Emery, who fulfills almost every criteria (and who the Villa players love) and has a history at top clubs and a superb European record. He was my choice from the beginning (after Xabi) and I'm sure if we had gone after him seriously we could have got him, I imagine he's now extended at Villa because we didn't. Of course IF it is Slot then I'll support him but I'll not have any confidence in him until proven, he's very much an Ange appointment (in fact Spurs preferred Slot over Ange but he turned them down).
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