Just some thoughts on the sale/investment process. Long and occasionally geeky post so feel free to scroll on if that’s not your thing.
I don’t believe the prospect of FSG considering a full sale would have leaked if this had never been on the table. It was just one part of a detailed story, but from a journalistic perspective it was an important detail and given that the rest of the leak has proven credible, I believe a full sale was part of the mandate and the journalists would have gone out of the way to firm up on the credibility before publishing.
In that context, Henry’s “not for sale” comments this week should probably be read as “we didn’t get a big enough offer”. That’s if they got any offers at all. We know that prospective buyers periodically sniff around the club and to date no-one has offered enough to tempt FSG.
This process launched in the aftermath of the Chelsea sale – a lot of analysts think that Chelsea was massively over-priced (I agree) and that excess valuation came on the back of an auction process in which the bidders likely ended up offering more than they wanted to because of the competitive process – that’s the whole point of that kind of sale process, job done, fair play to the (still massively overpaid) merchant banks. Furthermore, Chelsea was the only major club up for grabs at that time – low supply and high demand driving up the price and all that.
So FSG launch a process in which they’re contemplating a full sale of the club, and they’re rubbing their hands in the light of the Chelsea valuation and telling themselves this proves their sky-high valuation of the club was always correct. But they don’t get anything like the price they want because:
I've said all along that with the Annie Road paid for by the end of this financial year I expect there to be significant money available to spend this summer and I stand by that, but if we don't get Champions League next year then that will take a dent out of that budget.
I hope I'm wrong about the longer term outlook, obviously. It may work in our favour if United goes for a sensible price as that may help FSG to get realistic about their valuation, especially when they find (as they will) that Klopp can only work miracles on a low budget for so long.
I don’t believe the prospect of FSG considering a full sale would have leaked if this had never been on the table. It was just one part of a detailed story, but from a journalistic perspective it was an important detail and given that the rest of the leak has proven credible, I believe a full sale was part of the mandate and the journalists would have gone out of the way to firm up on the credibility before publishing.
In that context, Henry’s “not for sale” comments this week should probably be read as “we didn’t get a big enough offer”. That’s if they got any offers at all. We know that prospective buyers periodically sniff around the club and to date no-one has offered enough to tempt FSG.
This process launched in the aftermath of the Chelsea sale – a lot of analysts think that Chelsea was massively over-priced (I agree) and that excess valuation came on the back of an auction process in which the bidders likely ended up offering more than they wanted to because of the competitive process – that’s the whole point of that kind of sale process, job done, fair play to the (still massively overpaid) merchant banks. Furthermore, Chelsea was the only major club up for grabs at that time – low supply and high demand driving up the price and all that.
So FSG launch a process in which they’re contemplating a full sale of the club, and they’re rubbing their hands in the light of the Chelsea valuation and telling themselves this proves their sky-high valuation of the club was always correct. But they don’t get anything like the price they want because:
- Chelsea was overpriced. Everyone, except Todd Boehly and chums, knows that.
- The Glazers put United up for sale shortly after the process starts, and investors with no emotional attachment will view United as a better prospect – there’s stuff you can do to enhance the value of the club, not least stadium re-furb, not fundamental stuff, just running it better and reversing the impact of laziness / neglect by the Glazers. Furthermore, United is listed on NYSE, so you've got something of a guide price to sense check your valuation (and shit loads of publicly available financial information that you've likely already analysed).
- LFC “brand” value is on the wane because we’re a bit shit at the moment. Squad needs a re-build. FSG have always spent what we earn, minimal external investment (other than capital projects), essentially self-sustaining. But a buyer knowing they’ll have to put extra money in to fund a re-build will knock that money off the price. This goes against FSG’s expectations because their valuation assumes the club will continue to sustain itself - always has, always will.
- Prospect for significant growth in future LFC revenues is relatively low – stadium is probably at full capacity now and price increases are difficult due to the likely fanbase reaction, training ground is done, TV revenues are largely uncontrollable due to central negotiations and distributions, Superleague is difficult to say the least, commercial revenue may be close to saturation - the only big money out there now is crypto and you probably won't get paid as it's all bullshit.
- Cost-cutting – pointless exercise when rising player costs dwarf anything you can save elsewhere. Finance geeks like to refer to cost-cutting as a “haircut” but in football it’s more of a “shave”.
- Many of the potential bidders have already taken a look in private in the past – they decided against a bid when it was non-competitive, they’re too wise to get involved in a bidding process. They’re not going to suddenly tell themselves that they undervalued the club in the past because some other bidders now think it’s worth more than they do.
- Sportswashers know that LFC's militant fans are not going to roll out the red carpet like City and, to a lesser extent, Newcastle have done. And they will worry that Klopp will quit. What’s that lads, you’re not big fans of torture and are pissed off that the amazing manager you loved has quit because we’re a bunch of twats? Never mind, we’ve just signed Bellingham so all good, yeah? What do you mean “no”?
- Finally, and this is the key one I think – they fucked the sale process with an unclear mandate. If you go into a sale process then buyers need to know that you will take the best offer and are committed to the sale. They’re not going to commit time and resources to evaluating a bid (which is a long, time-consuming process, and is expensive even if your bid fails) unless you are committed to selling. So if you send out a vibe that you might not sell after all, the bidders are either going to bail out of the process altogether, or else they won’t commit time and resources to it and will do a quick and dirty job, likely resulting in a low-ball bid which is just a try-on to see if the seller bites. And if the banks didn’t tell them that’s what would happen then they were badly advised. If they pushed on with the process regardless then they are idiots.
I've said all along that with the Annie Road paid for by the end of this financial year I expect there to be significant money available to spend this summer and I stand by that, but if we don't get Champions League next year then that will take a dent out of that budget.
I hope I'm wrong about the longer term outlook, obviously. It may work in our favour if United goes for a sensible price as that may help FSG to get realistic about their valuation, especially when they find (as they will) that Klopp can only work miracles on a low budget for so long.