News Israel 13 had a doctor on saying that 85-90% of hospitalizations in Israel are fully vaccinated people...
Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?
- Thread starter manwithnoname
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No, that's not how sampling works.
470 is the population. If you sampled 4 of them, and 3 were vaccinated, then you'd be right to say the sample is too small.
That's not the case here. All 470 were sampled. There is literally zero error. To pretend otherwise, you'd have to claim this entire outbreak was a total anomaly and the other outbreaks will be different. That claim would make you delusional.
That's not the case here. All 470 were sampled. There is literally zero error. To pretend otherwise, you'd have to claim this entire outbreak was a total anomaly and the other outbreaks will be different. That claim would make you delusional.
I forgot that it's pointless discussing maths with you, my mistake.
Okay, but where's the cut off? When we see Australia locking down over a handful of cases, the vaccine not 100% effective, what are we striving for? No cases at all? That seems impossible.
Australia need to up their vaccination rate, they're at a totally different stage. Once there is 80/90% of the population vaccinated (not sure there's an exact number), things should go back to relative normality, it's fairly close to that in a lot of European countries.
What's relative normality though?
I can't see any scenario where this is not going on perpetually. There is already talk of booster shots and vaccine wearing off etc.
Right, despite my better judgement. Let's ignore every other study for now, and assume this 470 is a genuine reflective sample of the overall population. If there are 75% vaccinated and 75% of cases are vaccinated, is that enough? It might be if the 75% that were vaccinated were randomly chosen to be vaccinated and equally susceptible to the virus before vaccination. But, we know thats not true, it's heavily weighted to older, and more vulnerable people. The real question is if your likelihood, based on your own circumstances, of contracting the virus, and more importantly getting very sick with it, has gone down or stayed the same. I have yet to see anything other than saying your likelihood for that to happen goes down, once you are vaccinated.
I don't know. But as long as vaccination rates stay high, I think there'll be little to no rules/laws around it, but a significant number of people will be more cautious for a number of years.
Mandates will be coming in soon, I reckon. If not explicit mandates, then coercive ones, like what we could see in New York City, for example. It's enforcement without having it in plain writing.
Why would I need to do that?
Imagine I've just slapped you you fucking fanny
No different to having to take Flu boosters each year. Australia is at 19% fully vaccinated, they say they'll return to normality when that reaches 80%. So around 2030 at the rate they are going.
If 75% are vaccinated, the effect of selection bias is no longer there, every man and his dog has been getting jabbed to reach that point.
If less than 75% are vaccinated, then the effect of selection bias rises, but then opposing effect of infections being predominantly in the vaccinated is a problem. That is a much more direct and akward problem than the assumed selection bias.
470 is a lot of people. That's just the people who got taken out, the population of the town is much higher. By all means if the town is full of inbred people you can propose an alternative gene pool explanation of the infection data. But you have no reason to think that aside from delusion.
It’s a fucking disaster or a rollout.
However - we’re mostly jabbing people with the Pfiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiizer (search for Jimmy Rees “Meanwhile in Australia” particularly the “Ladies of Brighton” on Facebook to see how we’re amusing ourselves in Australia).
You can get your 2nd Pfiiiiiiiiiiiiizer 3 weeks after the first (I did),so with number closer to 50% having the first jab, we should, in theory, be able to achieve higher levels reasonably quickly.
That’s if we have enough Pfiiiiiiiiizer.
You're not forced to take the flu booster shot each year, or show your papers to get into a restaurant lest you get frozen out of society.
I don't know how people aren't more concerned about the long term implications of the policies coming in.
Probably because that's the way it is over here and it's no hardship whatsoever. Literally not an issue.
Quelle surprise...
In a place with a demographic of people and high vaccination rate a large proportion of those infected had been vaccinated...
Why didn't they tell us that it didn't totally prevent infection but it does pretty much prevent you dying as soon they found out??
Oh... but they fucking did...
The Vaccine reduces your chance of catching it, reduces your viral load (and hence how infectious you are to others) and definitely reduces your chance of suffocating on a ventillator.
Is it a perfect solution which prevents all infection? No
Does it stop you from dying? Yes
Is it statistically likely that a contagious virus that can spread to vaccinated people will infect more vaccinated people in a mainly vaccinated area?? Yep
Will the fucking Tuckers use this distorted evidence to justify their idiocy?? Ooooh yeah
I saw something saying that viral loads in vaccinated and non-vaccinated people were very similar
That article says that yes... maybe that's caused by the variant or maybe that's something new we've discovered... which would indeed be depressing.
But even the Tuckers who loooooove being able to quote that article might well have seen that in the same article/study the vaccine does pretty much prevent you dying.
[article]
Similar viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with the COVID delta variant, suggest that both can transmit the virus.
There is now clear evidence that vaccination against COVID-19 reduces symptom burden and duration of any associated illness. An emerging problem is the appearance of new COVID-19 variants, in particular, the COVID delta variant. However, an analysis by Public Health England, has shown that two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, reduces the incidence of hospitalisation in those infected with the delta variant. Furthermore, in the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) produced updated advice indicating how a body of evidence now suggests that full vaccinated individuals were less likely to either acquire COVID-19 or transmit the virus onto others. However, despite this, there are emerging concerns, particularly from Israel, which has managed to vaccinate a large proportion of the adult population, that the reported effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines has reduced to 64% with regard to preventing infection and symptomatic illness. Interestingly, this reduced effectiveness appears to coincide with the spread of the COVID delta variant in the country. This is of particular concern given how it is thought that the COVID delta variant has an estimated 60% higher risk of household transmission. Thus, some uncertainty remains over the effectiveness of vaccines against the COVID delta variant and the extent to which the risk of transmission is reduced.
Potential for increased transmission
In light of this uncertainty, the CDC has released data captured from an outbreak of COVID-19 during July 2021, associated with large, public gatherings, in Massachusetts. During the month of July, 469 cases of COVID-19 associated with multiple summer events and public gatherings were reported. The reported vaccination coverage among eligible Massachusetts residents was 69% although the majority (74%) of symptomatic infected cases occurred in fully vaccinated individuals, who had received either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Jansen vaccine. Most infections (85%) occurred in males with a median age of 40 years.
A total of 133 patients provided samples for genomic analysis, of which, 89% were due to the COVID delta variant. Fortunately, only five people required hospitalisation (four who were fully vaccinated) and no deaths were reported. PCR cycle threshold (CT) values, which represent a measure of the concentration of viral load present in a sample, were taken from 127 vaccinated and 84 unvaccinated individuals. The lower the CT value, the more viral material present and the median CT values were 22.77 and 21.54 for the vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals respectively. In order words, given that the transmissibility of COVID-19 is known to be dependent on viral load, it would appear that the infection with the COVID delta variant, even among fully vaccinated individuals, could still lead to appreciable transmission of the virus. As a result of these findings, the CDC has now suggested that prevention strategies such as mask wearing should continue indoors, irrespective of vaccination status.
https://hospitalhealthcare.com/covi...-load-similar-in-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated/
[/article]
So the vaccine is ~60% effective at preventing infection, and the variant is ~60% more infectious. This maths is beyond me. Not even worth attempting to calculate it. Nah, not even with a thousand calculators could you do this. All I know is the bit in bold is good news, so everything will be fine, because it's good. Good I tell you.
Thats really interesting, but can to an extent easily be misconstrued re viral load average.being slightly higher for the vaccinated.
Maybe you can accomodate more virus without feeling sick so to speak with a vaccine? As for the percentages, it seems statistically interesting re the gender of the infected etc...
And taken from large group gatherings??
I need a bit more explanation there..
I doubt the vaccine makes it more likely you will catch it but less damaging if you do... thats sounds truly odd...
I suppose the only option is to lockdown everyone again...
The really disturbing thing is that if this new variant is that contagious AND vaccines dont make much difference to your chances of catching it then fuck man....
Even if we can get people safe and vaccinated ( which we clearly cant somehow) we will still have opportunity for variants appearing...
Fuuuuuuuuuck this shit.
I had a fucking shiiiiiiite holiday because of this shit.
Masks are fucking annoying and shit and nobody likes em...
In Laos the bars are fucking closed and the borders fucking closed.
Uuugh...
The CUUUUNT who was eating a fucking pangolin or pissing around in a lab... fuck em... i hope they are dead
Im in one!