I assume the case increase has run parallel with a temp decrease?
Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?
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It seems you are assuming that a lot more tests equates to a lot more infections, not just a few, and that more tests in say the UK wouldn't discover even more infected. However in Japan the test is readily available to anyone who feels unwell or has symptoms, free on their NHS, with a doctor's authorisation.
Assuming those asymptomatic are proportional in both countries it still doesn't follow then that there would be a far higher (and we are talking a multiple of 10) number of infected.
Of course the national trait of people in a number of Oriental countries is to strictly adhere to Govt. guidelines re. isolation, disinfection and mask wearing ... as opposed to partying on Brighton beach. That alone would account for a large drop in infections.
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If they tested absolutely everyone in the population, then we'd know for sure. If they tested only people meeting a certain criteria (such as only people who have a temperature, and then done another test to find the probability of having a temperature = infected as well as probability of not having temperature = infected) then you could do a few simple calculations and also know for sure. But these people gathering the data are total morons and/or corrupt. So all we can do is make an assumption that the samples of people they tested are representative of the entire population, and scale up the results accordingly.
It wasn't a multiple of 10. I said it was 5 times higher, but forgot to account for their population being double ours, so that brings it down to 2.5 times higher. I could argue that is due to the masks being worse than spitting droplets over people. You could argue that it cannot be given we're all hanging out in brighton and the japanese are obedient sheep, but you'd just be guessing.
How cold does it get in Melbourne? or is it at the moment.
The long, cold dark days in winter will make it so much worse for a lot of people, mental health issues will increase massively.
I don't know if the virus itself performs any differently depending on the weather. It might well do. Presumably it would be hard to say for sure as it hasn't been around that long and there has been a lot of intervention to try to stop it.
The main worry about the winter months is more that people get ill with other things too (the obvious example being flu) and that behaviour changes. People are inside more in the winter, noone is sitting outside in pubs and restaurants, we don't have doors and windows open, we are more likely to get on public transport rather than walking.
I would hope that we won't be looking at another lockdown on the scale that we have just had. I think the government will go out of their way to avoid that. I am sure we will see more local lockdowns though.
The main worry about the winter months is more that people get ill with other things too (the obvious example being flu) and that behaviour changes. People are inside more in the winter, noone is sitting outside in pubs and restaurants, we don't have doors and windows open, we are more likely to get on public transport rather than walking.
I would hope that we won't be looking at another lockdown on the scale that we have just had. I think the government will go out of their way to avoid that. I am sure we will see more local lockdowns though.
I don’t think there’s causality with the colder weather - the reasons for the spikes in the community are different - major state government ineptitude combined with private company cost & corner cutting.
However - the colder weather does seem to create a scenario where the virus isn’t killed off as quickly.
It’s also likely that the colder weather leads to people congregating inside more - rather than open spaces - son there’s that.
Melbourne started opening up - pubs, restaurants initially had limits of 20 people - but I think that was up to 50.
I saw my old pub starting to open up for football fans, etc
Now it’s out and rampant - 400+ cases a day - it’s in the social/aged care sector and healthcare - deaths are up.
I mean, the numbers are still “small” comparatively speaking - but we’re worse off now than we where at the start when we had the first lockdown.
That's how exponential processes work. If you start off with 10 cases, and you don't immediately execute and burn the bodies of those 10 people, then you get to 100, and then 1000, and then it's 100,000 you think oh shit let's lock everything down. After a long period of economic suicide you get back down to 50,000, then 25,000, then you think excellent it's going away, let's open up again, thank the good lord, it's over. In short, you're hoping that: (a) even though 10 cases with no controls almost got to the point of wiping out your population, but for reasons (b) restarting with 25,000 cases will be perfectly fine, masks and social distancing work bro, what could possibly go wrong?
Those other causes obv.do apply, but from what I remember from virologists, medics etc.at the height of lockdown there is a temperature factor as well. The virus can't stand heat, so if nothing else the colder weather removes that limiting factor.
Gets down to about 6-9 degrees at night with highs of about 14-16 degrees during the day - which is about half as warm as summer.
Different to the UK in terms of darkness - still doesn’t get dark till after 5pm and The Lying Rag’s up by 8am - But again - i think mental health will be more about not being able to meet up than being dark and cold.
Aussies are generally wusses when it comes to cold weather (particularly people from Sydney - drops under 15 degrees and they lock themselves inside anyway).
However - we didn’t totally lockdown at the start - in the way that, say NZ, did - many shops stayed open.
However there wasn’t a spike early - much of it has come from people arriving from overseas and that process was not being managed well in the 2 week quarantine period.
That's kind where I was heading with my question.
I was wondering if perhaps the usually hotter weather, plus (relatively) smaller numbers of cases to begin with just delayed the inevitable.
It’s a different story in other Australian states.
I don’t think anyone has been executing and burning the bodies.
Well, no more than normal in Queensland.
It gets to 574°C in summer??
Maybe - other states with similar temperatures haven’t had a spike though.
Maybe it was just “hiding” and the colder weather let it out.
Feels like it sometimes.
Animals have tested positive for it before (the tiger in the zoo remember?), they can't pass it to us or other animals though apparently.
Probably they consider high teens to mid-20's C to be cold since I'm sure I saw them bring out the down jackets, ear mufflers and thermals at 18C.
It can't be 50-50 otherwise there would have been proven infections by now if they could. Of course I know you are taking the piss but just thought I'd state the obvious !
On January 12, Professor Kwok Yung Yuen diagnosed a family with the coronavirus in Shenzhen, 700 miles from Wuhan. Only some of the family members had been to the city where the COVID-19 outbreak originated, so Yuen knew immediately that he was seeing evidence of human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus.
He immediately alerted the authorities in Beijing.
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But it took eight days for Beijing to warn the world that the coronavirus, which has now killed almost 650,000 people and infected over 16 million, could be spread through human-to-human transmission.
Yuen, who spoke to the BBC show Panorama for an episode due to be broadcast later on Monday, was helping to investigate the outbreak in Wuhan in early January after other whistleblower doctors had attempted to raise the alarm in late December.
Yuen told the BBC he believes local officials covered up the scale of the initial outbreak by destroying physical evidence and delaying the response to clinical findings.
“When we went to the Huanan supermarket, of course, there was nothing to see because the market was clean already,” Yuen said. “So, you may say that the crime scene is already disturbed because the supermarket was cleared, we cannot identify any host which is giving the virus to humans.”
Beijing has been widely criticized because it delayed sharing information about the coronavirus, and public health experts claim that a faster lockdown of Wuhan could have helped significantly reduce the reach of the pandemic.
Yuen says local officials were being ordered to repress information at the behest of Beijing.
“I do suspect that they have been doing some cover-up locally at Wuhan,” Yuen said. “The local officials who are supposed to immediately relay the information has not allowed this to be done as readily as it should.”
ADVERTISEMENT
Back in January, local officials punished a Wuhan doctor for trying to raise the alarm about a new type of virus spreading in the city which was not responding to normal pneumonia treatments.
READ: China is trying to rewrite the history of silenced coronavirus whistleblower doctor Li Wenliang
Li Wenliang, one of the doctors who spoke out, returned to work at a hospital in Wuhan. He subsequently contracted the virus and eventually died. His death led to an unprecedented outpouring of grief online in China, but Beijing’s censors quickly scrubbed all mentions of it were quickly scrubbed from social media.
The Chinese government has consistently said its response to the coronavirus outbreak has been “open, transparent and responsible.” While the World Health Organization has also praised Beijing’s response, others have been critical of the lack of transparency, pointing out a quicker response could have prevented many deaths.
“If the same interventions that were put in place on 23 January had been put in place on 2 January, we may have seen a 95% reduction in the number of cases,” Prof Andrew Tatem of the University of Southampton told Panorama
He immediately alerted the authorities in Beijing.
ADVERTISEMENT
But it took eight days for Beijing to warn the world that the coronavirus, which has now killed almost 650,000 people and infected over 16 million, could be spread through human-to-human transmission.
Yuen, who spoke to the BBC show Panorama for an episode due to be broadcast later on Monday, was helping to investigate the outbreak in Wuhan in early January after other whistleblower doctors had attempted to raise the alarm in late December.
Yuen told the BBC he believes local officials covered up the scale of the initial outbreak by destroying physical evidence and delaying the response to clinical findings.
“When we went to the Huanan supermarket, of course, there was nothing to see because the market was clean already,” Yuen said. “So, you may say that the crime scene is already disturbed because the supermarket was cleared, we cannot identify any host which is giving the virus to humans.”
Beijing has been widely criticized because it delayed sharing information about the coronavirus, and public health experts claim that a faster lockdown of Wuhan could have helped significantly reduce the reach of the pandemic.
Yuen says local officials were being ordered to repress information at the behest of Beijing.
“I do suspect that they have been doing some cover-up locally at Wuhan,” Yuen said. “The local officials who are supposed to immediately relay the information has not allowed this to be done as readily as it should.”
ADVERTISEMENT
Back in January, local officials punished a Wuhan doctor for trying to raise the alarm about a new type of virus spreading in the city which was not responding to normal pneumonia treatments.
READ: China is trying to rewrite the history of silenced coronavirus whistleblower doctor Li Wenliang
Li Wenliang, one of the doctors who spoke out, returned to work at a hospital in Wuhan. He subsequently contracted the virus and eventually died. His death led to an unprecedented outpouring of grief online in China, but Beijing’s censors quickly scrubbed all mentions of it were quickly scrubbed from social media.
The Chinese government has consistently said its response to the coronavirus outbreak has been “open, transparent and responsible.” While the World Health Organization has also praised Beijing’s response, others have been critical of the lack of transparency, pointing out a quicker response could have prevented many deaths.
“If the same interventions that were put in place on 23 January had been put in place on 2 January, we may have seen a 95% reduction in the number of cases,” Prof Andrew Tatem of the University of Southampton told Panorama
Hahaha - does this guy have literally NO idea how fast a communist government moves at ? Most governments in fact.
Here's the official timeline for refreshment :
16th December : Patient Zero hospitalised.
24th December - still not identified so samples sent to Vision Medicals in Guangzhou – a private company specializing in metagenomic massive parallel sequencing analysis.
27th December - Wuhan Central Hospital received a message from Vision Medicals that the BAL sample taken on 24 December contained a new kind of coronavirus.
30th December : first official missives on the new coronavirus
31st December : first public messages.
3rd January
Chinese scientists at the National Institute of Viral Disease Control and Prevention (IVDC) determined the genetic sequence of the novel β-genus coronaviruses (naming it '2019-nCoV') from specimens collected from patients in Wuhan, China, and three distinct strains were established.
3rd January
China formally notified US on the outbreak. At a White House briefing in March 20, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said officials had been alerted to the initial reports of the virus by discussions between CDC director Robert Redfield and Chinese CDC Director Dr. Gao on Jan. 3. Mr. Azar also told his chief of staff to make sure that the National Security Council was aware that "this (the outbreak) is a very big deal.
https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/29-06-2020-covidtimeline
Even the compromised WHO doesn't agree with the Chinese propaganda version.
Even the compromised WHO doesn't agree with the Chinese propaganda version.
Ah .. but do they agree with your conspiracy theorist version, that is the real question.
My version is way closer to the truth than the Chinese nonsense.
Haha and you know this how ? Gleaned from Babylon Bee perhaps ?
China can't be trusted. I think that's fairly obvious.
Did you see their public responses to the Hong Kong situation and their ongoing mini Holocaust ?
As well you spouting the blatantly incorrect propaganda in this thread
Name that "blatantly incorrect propaganda". It's far easier to claim that than prove it. As you well know.
What I often find in debates of this nature is that those not having a view from both sides of the fence end up entrenched on one side of it. Personally I feel I'm relatively neutral (truly) and try to take an informed view - which others may see as "propaganda" since they have no real inkling of what it's like on the side.